The hole in government finances gradually fills. The state budget deficit has narrowed significantly over one year thanks to higher tax revenues. According to recent estimates by the Ministry of Budget released Tuesday, it rose to 56.2 billion euros in late April against 71.6 billion a year earlier, at the height of the crisis.
The increase in revenues explains this improvement, with 81.6 billion euros against 70.2 billion a year earlier. The only tax revenues increased by 11.3 billion. In contrast, spending rose slightly, to 130.6 billion euros in late April against 127 billion a year earlier.
Revenue growth could continue in the coming months if economic activity is more vigorous as anticipated the Bank of France (BDF).The institution has in fact confirmed its growth forecast for the second quarter to 0.5% in its May business survey released Tuesday. The activity increased only 0.1% over the first three months of the year.
Dynamism of the interim
In May, the services have been fired by the rebound of the interim and computer activities, details the Bank of France. However, "forecasts indicate a more moderate increase in activity in the coming months," notes BdF. In industry, all sectors advanced, with the exception of the car, even if the rate of use of means of production remains below its long period to 76.2% in April against 75.7 % in March."The outlook in the short term [the industry] are oriented towards maintaining production," notes BdF.
Trade deficit down
On Tuesday, Customs has also published the trade figures in April. The trade deficit was only moderately reduced by 160 million euros compared to the previous month, -4248000000 euros. Exports, driven by major aerospace contracts, rose 1%, more strongly than imports.
"The geographical breakdown of the data confirms that the resumption of world trade is indeed driven by demand from emerging economies," notes Alberto Balboni, an economist at Xerfi."The French exports to China grew by 38.6% in value compared to last year, a pace almost four times more sustained than those to the European Union." But the empire Environment is still only 3% of exports hexagonal.
Falling German exports
In the same month of April, German exports fell by 8.03% compared to the previous month, according to figures released on Tuesday the Federal Statistics Office Destatis. After a dramatic rebound of 22.3% in March, this figure "must be analyzed as a small correction," relativize Natixis economists in a note.
However, the decline in German imports of 4.63% seems to be bad news for France, the first trading partner of Germany.And things should not be arranged in the coming months, with the establishment in 2011 of fiscal savings of 11.2 billion euros in Germany. As noted Juliette Hubert, Aster, "plans rigorously engaged by our trading partners will lead to a contraction of the request to the French industry."