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Lefigaro.fr – The stock market crash experienced by the materials last week he requires investors to be more responsive?

Fabrice Cousté – We have entered a period in which electronic exchanges and automated to make faster and faster. This is not about to stop! Uncertainties about the euro and oil prices have created an appetite among investors for increasing trading currencies and commodities with a time horizon ranging from several days to a few seconds! Since early May, some hedge funds that had long positions in commodities and the euro came out massively causing a sharp drop of nearly ten dollars on oil. Meanwhile, the euro flirted with the $ 1.50 fell below the $ 1.45 and is now heading towards $ 1.40.These movements in raw materials could weigh on the CAC 40, including through lower oil stocks: Total, Technip and Vallourec.

What do you attribute the return of the volumes traded on the CAC 40 (six billion euro traded on average over the first two sessions of the week)?

These sessions illustrate the volatility of financial markets. And when I talk about financial markets, I do not take into account only the Paris stock exchange but also the Forex (currency market), which weighs 1000 times more than the CAC 40 (4000 billion dollars are traded daily on forex).

Is it out of raw materials?

The sharp drop ('sell off') shows that we are witnessing a situation of bubble that formed on certain assets (gold, silver, oil) and deflates even faster than many of the positions initiated at purchases were intended to hedge against a weakening greenback pronounced. This one covers the force, these positions are unwound or reversed, thus amplifying the plunge.

I would say that the recent plunge in oil is only a pause in a structural increase. I remain convinced that indeed the global economy is experiencing recovery, albeit slow, raw materials remain structurally high levels. Indeed, the double-digit growth in emerging countries may decrease, but these countries are on track for rapid expansion that will require more and more natural resources.We need to get used to the prospect of a sustained oil price at $ 100 a barrel and more in years to come. This new environment should promote market recovery for companies in "green business" (new energy, recycling, energy conservation).

What impact on portfolio management?

The sector rotations will be more frequent. In the short term we will also know where you have a new focus on defensive stocks such as telecoms and technology sectors expanding. As for values ​​that have real pricing power (the ability of firms to impose higher prices, Ed), the ability to pass the rising cost of raw materials in their products are preferable. This is where the champions of luxury such as LVMH and PPR values ​​but also with strong brands such as Danone and Essilor.

Conversely, investors should stay away from utilities and automobiles. Regarding the oil companies, I am negative court term and long-term positive. Good surprises are also possible for banks, but these are values ​​highly speculative and totally dependent on how the policies will manage the debt crisis of the Greek.

A more reactive wrong does not accentuate the lack of interest for individual stocks, considered a distribution medium or long term?

Today, it is true that individuals invest more to take risks but to protect themselves. They therefore turn to the massive gold or stone. The market environment has changed. It is uncertain therefore more complex to understand.But those who still believe the shares are able to adapt their trading, also passing through alternative platforms that will become the next referent of finance or by taking advantage of new business tools ("stop loss" orders intelligent programming strategy) that are available to them. Although the regulator wants to break the speed of trades and trading high frequency counter, it can not prevent the development of these platforms.

The Cac 40 barely exceed the 4200 points for three months. How do you explain it?

The revival of the Cac 40 depends mainly comeback banking shares. In view of its excellent results, BNP Paribas can return to a range between 70 and 75 euros and Societe Generale between 60 and 65 euros by the end of the year.The CAC 40 should not drop below 3800 points for corporate earnings in the first quarter are still excellent. Conversely, as the uncertainties regarding the recovery of Greece will not be lifted, the CAC 40 may not exceed the 4200 points.

While the Arab riots continue, the World Bank has sounded the alarm. In Washington, facing the 24 countries that make up the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) responsible for setting broad policy guidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the institution said that "a worsening of conditions in the Middle East and North Africa could derail global growth. "

It considers in particular that "if oil prices were to rise sharply and permanently, whether due to growing uncertainty or a significant disruption of oil production, global growth could slow by 0.3 percentage point in 2011 and 1.2 points in 2012.The World Bank said that volatility in oil prices and agricultural products had been "even higher" than usual in recent weeks.

"Act Now"

The World Bank has, however, tried to reassure his interlocutors: currently, the impact is limited to local economies themselves. The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt for example cut the growth of both countries about three percentage points in 2011, compared to what was planned three months ago. "The growth in Egypt and Tunisia should be about 2.5% and 1.5% respectively," says the Bank.A very inadequate compared to their population growth in a context of energy prices and food costs.

Internationally, the economic disruption, "if they remained at this stage, should have limited impact globally," said the World Bank. Its president Robert Zoellick, however, urged the international community to act now. "Wait until the situation stabilizes, it will lose opportunities," he said

The IMF on the alert

The signal seems to have been well received by IMFC. Its 24 members and confirm that "the immediate economic impact of developments in some Middle East and North Africa require particular attention."The cards are distributed: the World Bank's objective to "strengthen its support" in these two areas and the IMF's role to conduct "economic evaluation" for an "action plan".

"Of course we stand ready to assist, on the side of technical assistance and funding on the slope," assured the IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said at a news conference. "The example of the Middle East has highlighted this issue, the fact that you can have good numbers in terms of sustainability without growth," he added. Remarks relayed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner: "Today, the change underway in the Middle East calls for rethink and refocus the commitment of the international community.These transitions involve ultimately the people, increase their opportunities and their freedom. "

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The NYSE will start Thursday's meeting in sharp rebound, while Japanese engineers are trying everything possible to cool the reactors at Fukushima and avoid a major nuclear disaster. The Dow Jones climbed 1.09% to 11,738 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advancing 1.33% respectively to 1274 points and 1.40% points to 2653 points.

Thursday's meeting, however, promises once again to be febrile given the uncertainties surrounding the nuclear disaster in the archipelago. Wednesday on Wall Street, the Dow Jones dropped 2.04% to 11,613.3 points and ended at its lowest since Dec. 31.

The VIX volatility index, also called "fear index," jumped over 20% Wednesday and flew more than 45% since the beginning of the week.And according to analysts at PFG Best "it is not impossible that the Vix found record levels at the height of the financial crisis, the index could well triple.

In Tokyo on Thursday, the Nikkei closed down 1.44% moderate, affected by the surge in the yen and suspended the efforts of Japanese technicians near the nuclear power plant in Fukushima. For the first time since the nuclear crisis, the Japanese army helicopters dumped in the morning about 30 000 liters of water reactors 3 and 4 of the plant. The results of this operation are not yet known.Moreover, to support the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan injected 6,000 billion yen (about 54 billion euros) Thursday on the money market, bringing to 34,000 billion yen, its total contribution since Monday.

Inflation at the highest

On the currency markets, the euro continued its rebound against the dollar on Thursday, while the yen was changing to levels not seen since the Second World War against the greenback, buoyed by speculation of remittances in Japan following the devastating earthquake on Friday. 111H00 to Paris, the euro bought 1.4053 dollars against 1.3906 late Wednesday, its highest in four months.

On the macroeconomic front, the meeting was punctuated by the publication of numerous U.S. indicators.The weekly jobless claims were initially declined more than expected in the United States during the week to March 12, at 385 000 401 000 cons (revised) the previous week, said Thursday the Labor Department.

Higher oil prices is being felt in the United States on consumer prices, which have experienced in February their largest increase since June 2009, according to figures released Thursday by the Washington Department of Labor faxless pay day loans.

The industrial production fell unexpectedly in February cons, largely due to mild temperatures that have weighed on the sector of services to communities, according to official statistics released Thursday.According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, production fell 0.1% after an increase of 0.3% (revised from -0.1%) in January.

Guess and FedEX published

The values ​​listed after the close Fifth Third Bancorp has repurchased $ 280 million contract warrant issued to U.S. Treasury for the bailout of banks.

The mail group FedEx (4.91% to 89.47 U.S. dollars) Thursday raised its forecast for revenue and margin for the current quarter and next, an announcement that pushed its way in the exchange pre-market trading. "We expect a continued positive trend increases turnover and margins in the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2012," said Alan Graf, chief financial officer.

Guess (-9.07% to 39.89 dollars) posted net earnings rose to $ 105.4 million, or $ 1.11 per share in the fourth quarter ended Jan. 29, against $ 87.9 million , or 93 cents per share last year.

By contrast, Qualcomm (4.36% to 52.70 dollars) said its deliveries should not be affected by events in Japan, noting that the supply and production within the company was sufficiently diversified in this such situations.

Renaissance Re Holdings (-1.77% to 62.77 dollars) said the floods in Australia will have a negative impact 30 to $ 190 million on first quarter results 2011.The earthquake in Japan should also have a significant effect on the accounts.

For his part, Rollins (1.01% at 19.01 dollars) has announced that its subsidiary, Orkin had opened a new office in Shanghai.

Also note, Apple (2.55% to 338.42 dollars) lost 4.5% Wednesday after an analyst from JMP Securities has degraded the value of the first degradation by an analyst since October. 90% of analysts remains to buy Apple. But, clearly, the group's growth could be affected by events in Japan and greater competition, especially in the segment of mobile phones, experts say Aurel BGC.

ON Semiconductor announced that its turnover in the first quarter 2011 could be affected by the situation in Japan at 2% to 4% of its turnover, due to disruptions in logistics.

"Our results are magnificent, it is a historic year for our group!" Tuesday, Vincent Bollore, CEO of the same name, do not sulk his pleasure at the publication of results of 2010. Overall, all lights are green and especially the profits which have been multiplied by three in one year to 358 million euros.

This performance is due to the growth of group activities (logistics, energy, media) and greatly to the share of profit of associates to the group that mounts alone, 200 million euros. More than half comes from a reversal of provisions on securities Havas, owned 32.9%, which must be added nearly a third of the group results of the pub, or about 35 million euros.The benefits of planting thousands of acres of palm and rubber trees in Asia and Africa, are also up to 45 million euros.

For this year, the big story of Bollore is the electric car. After a decade of investment in the development of a dry battery and the acquisition or construction of production facilities in Britain and Canada, 2011 is the year of launch.

Bollore starts in a few months of marketing to the general public of its electric car launches and especially BlueCar Autolib 'in Paris. This is a unique car-sharing system. In return for a subscription of 14 euros per month, the Bolloré Group will provide Parisians electric cars, equipped with a battery Bolloré and assembled in Italy by Pininfarina chains, leased 5 euros for half an hour.The group pledged to offer 250 BlueCar in October and 2000 in a year.

A great showcase

A race against time involving several divisions of the group is committed. The 6000 electrical terminals and communication will be provided by the subsidiary IER. Bolloré Telecom's in geolocation. Havas will be put to use for advertising. In addition, 1200 full-time employees are being hired. The annual operating costs of Autolib 'are evaluated at 60 million euros per year. From 30,000 users per day, the project is profitable.

The financial risk is far from negligible, but Autolib 'can become a great showcase for Bolloré. If successful, the technology could attract manufacturers that Renault and Nissan lead are betting on lithium-ion batteries called liquids.This technology has the major drawback of heat unlike the dry battery, ensures Vincent Bollore determined to demonstrate that its battery is best.

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The CAC 40, which won in the 4000 points on Monday night, amid record oil prices and gasoline, returns to form on Tuesday: the index 0.32% to 4003.19 wins points in early trade. The DAX index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange opened, it, up from 0.69% to 7211.06 points while the Footise London gained 0.31% over the closing Monday at 5,992.30 points .

Last night, Wall Street has yet suffered during the black gold but this morning, Asian stock markets have evolved around the equilibrium. Tensions in the oil market will settle down when in fact that Nigeria, Kuwait and the UAE will increase their oil production by April to offset higher prices that now exists as Libya comes into civil war with an additional 300,000 barrels per day, according to the Financial Times.This morning, oil prices let loose ground: in the electronic exchange of the night, a barrel of light sweet crude for April delivery yielded 1.41% to 103.95 dollars. That of Brent North Sea fell from 1.16% to 113.71 dollars.

French growth of 0.8% in first quarter

Side macroeconomic figures on Tuesday to watch: Bank of France said Tuesday forecast growth of 0.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) of France in the first quarter of this year in its monthly business survey. The survey on business climate shows a continued growth of industrial activity in February, but at a slower pace than in January, the indicator remained stable 110. The business climate indicator in services has increased in parallel from one point to 102.

Moreover, the trade deficit widened from France in January, to 5 fast payday loan no faxing.89 billion euros against 5.60 billion the previous month, seasonally adjusted data, the Customs said Tuesday.

In Germany, it will follow at noon, industrial orders in January (Destatis). No statistics are expected this afternoon from the United States.

Scor: net profit up 13%

At the Paris Stock Exchange on Tuesday morning, Michelin took the top ranking (1.99% to 58.89 euros) the Cac 40, followed by Accor (1.25%) and Axa (+1.18% ). Red side, Alcatel Lucent was down 0.15%, 0.06% of Capgemini and GDF Suez of 0.02%.

The SBF, Scor (1.78% to 21.43 euros) stands out. The reinsurer recorded in 2010 net profit up 13% to 418.0 million euros, above expectations, thanks to a surge in financial products, according to a statement released Tuesday.It is also in talks to buy the U.S. Transamerica Reinsurance, a subsidiary of its Dutch rival Aegon, reports Bloomberg.

Air France-KLM (-0.34% to 11.60 euros) reported on Tuesday morning traffic on a February increase of 4.9% capacity increase of 5.1% annual rate . This brings "a quasi-stable load factor to 77.6%," says the airline in a statement. Passenger numbers rose 5.7% to 58.1 million.

Side values, the oil services group Technip (-1.28% to 70.72 euros) has signed a contract worth around 45 million euros for the Gjoa Field Development in the Norwegian North Sea, he said Tuesday in a statement.

To be continued this evening, after-hours trading, the 2010 earnings of Havas and BioMérieux.

French banks bear the brunt of the deepening of the crisis in Côte d'Ivoire. Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo out, trying to stay ahead of the state and against the last presidential election, has announced last night on public television RTI "on decrees that the State of Côte Ivory took control by taking a full and complete participation in the capital of some banks. These include the SGBCI and Bicic, which are subsidiaries of Ivorian French banks BNP Paribas and Societe Generale.

His decision is to "preserve jobs and ensure the access of Ivorians and traders to their assets" in "as soon as possible."The two French banks did not wish to comment on the intentions of Laurent Gbagbo.

Financial asphyxiation

Following the post-election crisis, born of the struggle between Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo and outgoing Alassane Ouattara, President-elect acknowledged by much of the international community, the Central Bank of African States (BCEAO ) has severed its ties with Abidjan in January to try to suffocate the Gbagbo regime. This isolation has closed the financial tap francs CFA president.Far from giving up, Laurent Gbagbo attempted to mount a viable banking system across Ivory Coast, the price of a "huge pressure" on the subsidiaries of large foreign banks to remain in business.

But with the lack of liquidity, technical difficulties and legal risks, and the threat of sanctions wielded by the BCEAO against banks working with the Gbagbo government, especially when faced with violence that threaten the safety of their employees, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale first, yesterday, gave the signal for withdrawal payday loans guaranteed no fax. "Other banks will close," predicted one senior industry.

Effect "cataclysmic" freezing the financial system

Already five major foreign banks have decided to suspend their activities. The interruption of their business is blocking the Ivorian banking system, plunging the country a little more into chaos.The economy had indeed already been drastically slowed by the sanctions of the EU imposing such a ban on the two ports, the country's lung. The effect of blocking bank could be "cataclysmic," according to some.

Already, Abidjan went to stop their banks to withdraw their money. "It is feared the contagion effect, so we just remove a little about our savings," says one entrepreneur. "I'd rather have my money on me, it is unclear what will happen," shouts one soldier. The political crisis appears to have already led to a banking crisis that goes straight to an economic crisis.

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For hackers, the target market is trendy. Latest victim: the Nasdaq. "As part of our routine security checks, we have detected suspicious files on our servers and we concluded that our online software Directors Desk was potentially affected," the company said Nasdaq OMX in a statement. "There is no evidence at this stage that hackers have gained access to customer data Directors Desk or seize it," trying to reassure the exchange company.

According to the Wall Street Journalde Saturday, the Nasdaq's computer system was breached several times in 2010 and a federal investigation is underway to identify those responsible for these intrusions."Investigators are examining various mobile: illegal financial benefits, theft of trade secrets, or damage to national security through damage to the trading platform," says the article.

Hollywood Screenplay

The announcement echoes that of The Times on Monday. The British newspaper spoke of his columns in a scenario worthy of a Hollywood film: the headquarters of the London Stock Exchange threatened by a cyber terrorist attack while at the same time Wall Street was the victim of an attack the same type of Russian origin .This system makes it very difficult to identify the perpetrators of the attacks – hence the secrecy surrounding the identity of "terrorists" for the British – and makes it more complicated investigations already slowed by the inventiveness of these computer nerds.

The head of the British electronic intelligence (GCHQ), Iain Lobbens evokes in any case a threat "real and persistent." Remarks confirmed by the head of British Armed Forces, David Richards, who added that a cyber attack could economically "cripple a country with the same effectiveness as a series of bomb attacks against the cities."

Strengthen national security

These concerns spill over just days after the European Union has suspended trading on the Stock Exchange of carbon, the victim of a series of cyber attacks that resulted in the theft and resale of quotas worth 28 million euros .

The purchase of McAfee, world number three security software, the world's leading microprocessor, Intel's U.S. team more than 90% of PCs worldwide, will it leave room for its competitors? The answer is "Yes," said David DeWalt, McAfee's CEO since 2007. "Our software will not be integrated in silicon. But they will serve to be better connected to the microprocessor to perform security operations such as remote wake up your device or turn it off especially in case of loss or theft, as it connects to the Internet, "says it. McAfee's competitors, including Symantec, Kaspersky and Microsoft could, if they wish, offer comparable solutions."We have been selected by Intel as a result of our most advanced technology in the world, opening our 200 partners and competitors, because we will have a positive impact on its results and because of our geographical position," says CEO McAfee. Both groups have their headquarters within the city of Santa Clara (California).

Thus the acquisition by Intel should serve the world's largest "flea" after winning the battle of the performance of microprocessors, then the energy savings, to try to raise a third pillar, that of the security.Recent revelations of Wikileaks, and also the virus that has infected the systems of control orders, Iran, sensitive installations supplied by Siemens reflect the fact that "the old security breaches that were almost exclusively due to piracy Cards are migrating to business espionage guaranteed high risk personal loans. We can meet these new threats, "said David DeWalt.

Finally, to ensure that the site will remain at its competitors, the CEO of McAfee, says that "marriage will be modeled on that between EMC, the world leader in storage systems, and VMWare (specialist virtualization data). After joining the company VMware, EMC has decided to spin off while retaining control with 86% of the capital to enable it to offer its solutions to competitors like Hitachi, IBM and NetApp. "It would be the same between Intel and McAfee.

The question is even more critical that the marriage to 7.68 billion is considered by Brussels and Washington. "We delivered on Monday of last week, the documents to complete our acquisition in Europe, the European Commission and the United States, the Federal Trade Commission. We have the first answers in about a month, "said David DeWalt, CEO of McAfee.

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Nestle may soon emerge from the woods. Just days after the bid for Lactalis 1.4 billion euros Yoplait, the Swiss giant may decide to formalize his interest in the world number two behind Danone yoghurt faxless cash advances. It's …

In just three months, Pierre Gadonneix has worked hard. Appointed Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Latecoere in September to find a solution to the OEM backing beleaguered airline, former President of EDF has increased its consultations: Airbus to Boeing through the Representatives of the American Spirit, who is studying the issue (our edition of 25 September) and the Strategic Investment Fund (ISF). "The goal is to introduce creditor banks Latécoère first bankruptcy in spring 2011," says Pierre Gadonneix Le Figaro. "We have contacts with ten potential partners. Our goal is to identify two to three patterns that satisfy the bankers in repayment of debt, customers, anxious to perpetuate their chain of suppliers, and the state, which wants to consolidate the sector aerostructure French, "says there.This is split between four parties: Latecoere Daher-Socata and Sogerma Aerolia and subsidiaries of EADS, parent company of Airbus. "I am much more confident than in September, because the debt is at the heart of the matter is now stable. Latecoere consumes more cash in their holdings. But it does not generate enough to repay what will happen when certain programs including the B 787 will be mounted in cadence, "said the president.

Daher-Socata competing

Despite this optimism, the record Latécoère is complicated to solve. Bankers and customers were staring at china dogs, saying they have already paid their tribute to rescue the small Toulouse.The first, by accepting a moratorium freezes 80% of the debt until the end of 2011, Airbus, ensuring four years of work load and paying in advance of development costs (200 million euros) free 3-in-1 credit report. Boeing, meanwhile, has agreed to pay on the nail the doors of the B 787, despite the delay of the program. "Nobody wants to take over the short-term debt," says an industrialist. Daher-Socata, still a candidate for the resumption of all or part of Latécoère, said he would put at risk in this case. His profile – healthy balance sheet, diversified business, half in the aeronautics industry – like the government, campaigning for the emergence in France of a Franco-French Spirit in a European context.

Latecoere carries a debt of 363.1 million euros to 113.6 million in equity (at June 30, 2010)."Latecoere has been an aggressive volume by taking packages between 2000 and 2002, when a dollar was worth more or less 1 euro. It was all financed by debt. These workloads generate a turnover of unprofitable with a parity of 1 euro to $ 1.40, "develops an observer.

Other things are disturbing. While its subsidiary Latelec was chosen to supply the wiring of the wings of the future A 350 XWB Latécoère won no contract Aerostructures, depriving themselves of income for over twenty years. He also encountered difficulties with the composite doors of the B 787, forcing Boeing to "resume work" in its Everett site in the United States. The problem is now resolved, ensure that Boeing has reached agreement in early 2010 with its supplier.

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