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Note: Nicolas Sarkozy aims to balance public finances in 2016, Francois Hollande in 2017.

Roman Lucazeau, Chargé de Mission in the Business Institute, details the mechanisms at work in the test programs.

THE FIGARO.FR. – Why submit programs of candidates for this test?

Roman Lucazeau. – Although, compared to the 2007 presidential campaign, the programs of the two main candidates are more accurate, they still gray areas and are based on slightly different economic scenarios. This makes comparison difficult. So we tried to apply the same economic variables: growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, by 2017. We also wanted to discover what happened to the public finances if the programs were implemented with, notably, lower growth than that provided by the candidates, for example, that France has known, on average, over the past decade.

Originally, this type of exercise is applied by the financial authorities to banks. These are subject to economic scenarios degraded to assess their strength in case of economic crisis. We use a similar method to test the ability of candidates to achieve their stated goal (zero deficit in 2016 for Nicolas Sarkozy in 2017 for Francis Holland).

But in a crisis, a candidate can always abandon its initial program

.

Absolutely. We test the strength of their roadmap, as defined during the election campaign, in a worse position than they anticipate. We evaluate today's promises and do not prejudge the future president of the reactions in case of contingencies.

How does this model?

We leave the bases nominee programs (eg growth rate, the level of taxes and public spending …) and against which they built their proposals. These assumptions are public and have been developed by their campaign teams. We determine how the deficit and debt change if we change some parameters on the basis of data and public reporting, the INSEE, the Court of Auditors and of Bercy. The details of our methodology is available on our website.  

How do you ensure objectivity of your approach?

We submitted the candidates' platforms to the same constraints: same inflation, even growth, even drift government spending or health insurance, etc.. The differences between results are explained by the differences between the programs themselves. Debt strategy of the two candidates based on both on growth, tax increases and budget savings. But Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande do not intend to use these levers to the same extent. Their programs do not react the same way a change of parameters.

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A return to basics. The model presented by Labour Minister, Xavier Bertrand, and Secretary of State for SMEs, Frédéric Lefebvre aims to make more readable the information contained in the earnings statement

Its implementation, however, requires a harmonization of the calculation of contributions that will be done in two stages payday advance.

The joint complaint of the United States, Europe and Japan against China is not surprising. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has already ruled illegal last summer, Beijing's restrictions on exports of commodities in general. And China's argument that its quota of "rare earths" are intended to "protect the environment and achieving sustainable development" is not fooling anyone.

China, which recorded a trade deficit in February to $ 31.5 billion, supports its industry through subsidies and by keeping its currency, the yuan, at a deliberately undervalued. But at a time when the "Buy European Act", like the "Buy American Act", is invited in the French election campaign, there are concerns of a revival of protectionism in the world.

If one believes the Swiss NGO Global Trade Alert, trade tensions are "at their highest level since the Lehman crisis in 2009" and, since July 2011, "protectionist measures exceeded those due to liberalization three for ". In its latest report on trade barriers, Brussels estimates that European companies "have suffered from a revival of protectionism, especially in emerging countries."

This revival is not just Asia. In Brazil, where growth fell from 7.5% in 2010 to 2.7% last year, the Minister of Finance decided a 30% increase taxes on imported vehicles whose parts are not at 65 % at least "made in Mercosur" (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Venezuela) payday loans. The National Confederation of Industry of this country calls for new support measures.

Asia and Latin America in mind

Pretext not to disrupt the balance of payments, while its access to capital markets remains limited, Argentina imposed a series of restrictions "informal" imports: Porsche had to commit to buying wine and oil Argentine olive to bring a hundred cars, and BlackBerry has opened a plant in Tierra del Fuego to continue to sell its mobile phones. More generally, the Mercosur countries have agreed to increase their taxes, up to 35% on all products imported from outside of their block.

At the last WTO ministerial conference in December, its director general, Pascal Lamy, noted that the number of protectionist measures worldwide had increased from 220 in 2010 to 340 in 2011. China has two logical write two MEPs in a recent report: "the temptation of protectionism that conditioning access to its domestic industry to put its head in all new waves of technology (…) and that of the universalist ambitions of foreign market access. "

Certainly, calculates the WTO anti-dumping investigations declined from 213 in 2008 to 153 in 2011. But any return to protectionism today would cost $ 800 billion into the global economy, she warns.

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Sophie Menthon: 7 lessons in etiquette … by Cadremploi The etiquette in business has he? Sophie de Menthon, who founded several companies, has recruited a lot and today chairs the employers' movement ETHIC, is not safe. The company often forget the courtesy to candidates, suppliers, customers or employees.

For this reason, Sophie de Menthon published The etiquette in business, business requires. Beyond the formal rules of politeness, just listen to understand that the company has its codes. We understand them or you do not understand them. And, after a certain age, coarseness does not catch up. This is the youngest, the famous Generation Y, to study the seven lessons of etiquette that we propose to Sophie Menthon.

There are others but the spelling, how to be, to dress, talk, brief attitudes, can still work and learn when you're young. Paradoxically, these lessons of good manners are not always enough. Sophie Menthon may well be a bourgeois educated, she says she sometimes lacked herself and admit a blunder that has hurt (see the "bonus" at the end of video). It recognizes also be annoying sometimes, especially in his relationship with women. This is the price of self-confidence, frankness and independence. Then one likes or dislikes this "big mouth" whose listeners appreciate the RMC outspoken. Or not.

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After unanimously among the members of the Greek government, the proposed referendum on the euro in Greece opponents first meeting among the ministers of the country. While the Greek Prime Minister held talks last night with his European counterparts to define the contours of the proposed referendum, two ministers expressed their opposition this morning at the initiative of head of state.

Early this morning, the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos was the first raised his voice in that. While the prime minister suggested yesterday that the referendum will focus on "whether the Greeks or not to stay in the euro area," Evangelos Venizelos has swept the issue with the back of the hand. In the eyes of the man who played the head of the party George Papandreou in 2007, "the place of the Greek people in the euro is a historic achievement of the people that can not be questioned.This can not depend on a referendum, "he said in a statement. The minister stressed the importance of having the new tranche of aid "without delay". In fact, under the sixth tranche will not be released until the political situation has not been clarified.

The sling number two government was quick to be followed by the Greek Minister of Development, Michalis Chryssohoïdis. It called for a European financial rescue of Greece was quickly ratified by parliament, in fact opposed to the proposed referendum on Prime Minister said on public television Net. "This release is the ratification by Parliament of the Agreement (European) Greece comes out of the impasse," said Michalis Chryssohoïdis as television.

Lovers of trekking in the Sahara desert sores will go their way. The tour operator Voyageurs du Monde (Nomad, Terdav), specializing in custom travel and adventure, closed end of 2010 all its destinations in Algeria, Mauritania, Mali, Libya and Niger. Because of the very uncertain political climate in these countries (historically 3% of sales), the group "does not plan to reopen until at least two or three years, unfortunately," warns Lionel Habasque, Executive Director.

So, the tour operator sells proportionately more trips to the United States, its first destination (6.7% of sales in the first half), Italy (4.3%) and Vietnam (3.7%). However, the weight of Morocco (3.4%) and especially Egypt (3.2%) melted over the last year.The brochure Israel-Palestine, launched a year ago, has attracted 800 customers, 2 million euros in turnover.

Last year, Voyageurs du Monde has 130,000 people travel, having to afford a vacation cost between 1500 euros (Terdav) and 2200 euros (Voyageurs du Monde). This year, they should be more numerous, and their average spending unchanged.

Since September, the backlog for this winter is stable. In the first half, Voyageurs du Monde recorded a turnover of 101.5 million euros (3.60%), and a net loss of 3.2 million (- 1.9 million a year earlier) . "We are structurally deficient in the first half because we support 50% of charges with only 40% of our annual," says Alain Capestan, Executive Director.If prognostic already year 2012 "difficult", it aims for 2011 an increase of 2 to 4% of sales, operating income stable, but net income declined, mainly because of differences currency movements.

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The European Central Bank keeps its cool. Faced with signs of recession in the eurozone and while a leading European bank, Dexia, is faltering, the ECB has decided not to ease monetary policy. It has left its main interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. A level considered "low" by the Board of Governors of the Central Bank.

At its last monthly press conference as president of the monetary institution, Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB expects inflation "clearly above 2% in the coming months," before descending. One way to tell between the lines that interest rates are unlikely to be lowered over the next two months. Inflation in the euro zone peaked at 3% in September, a point above the objective of the ECB.

Still, the market calls for a rate cut."It reflects a lower rate of 0.5", observe the economists Societe Generale. Waiting judged "crazy" in the short term by the Luxembourg member of the Governing Council of the ECB, Yves Mersch.

The case for a rate cut was not, however, rule out of hand. For if the decision was consensus among the governors of the institution, the discussions were long, admitted Jean-Claude Trichet: "There was a discusion about the pros and cons of a rate cut or a maintenance of rates. After this long discussion, which was, I would say, as thorough and comprehensive as possible, we decided by consensus to maintain the rates. "

Some analysts point to a worrying season looming disaster on the front of the activity in the eurozone."The risks to growth, was talking about last month the President of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet, materialize," are economists at BNP Paribas CIB. In addition, "forecast the ECB behind sluggish growth at year end," they add online pay day loans.

Semi-surprise

The inaction of the ECB, however, is only half surprised. Jean-Claude Trichet, whose every word, in its public statements, is weighed, has not hinted in September that the ECB cut rates. Moreover, "the guardian of the euro zone will wait to act to have more evidence that inflation and growth will slow," noted economist of Nomura.

Observers expect more on a rate cut later this year. "Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to set the stage Thursday in a future rate cut in the next three months," analysts at Nomura advance.

Measures for banks

Taking note of the tense situation of European banks, the ECB launched a series of measures. It provides two refinancing operations unlimited volume of about a year in October and December. This exceptional instrument had not been asked since December 2009.

Jean-Claude Trichet also announced a relaunch of the repurchase program bonds. This will cover 40 billion euros between November 2011 and October 2012. The "bonds" are essentially backed securities real estate, and essential to the survival of many specialized banks in Europe. The purpose of all these operations is "to ensure that banks in the euro area are not limited in regard to liquidity," said French.

The ECB has also called for a recapitalization of institutions in the euro area. They must "do whatever is necessary to strengthen their balance sheets," pleaded Jean-Claude Trichet, using it for their profits, or paying wages "moderate".

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UBS has not finished paying the consequences of fraud valued at 1.5 billion euros of one of its traders in London. Beyond a tarnished reputation, the scandal threatens the investment activity of UBS and its credit rating, sesame to borrow on the markets. In fact, Moody's has been quick to draw. In the evening, the rating agency has under surveillance the notes of the first Swiss bank to a possible degradation. If the loss due to fraud is "manageable" by the bank, Moody's noted, "these losses raise questions about the group's ability to successfully rebuilding its investment banking operations," said the specialist assessment Financial. More worryingly, Moody's believes that the event shows the "weaknesses in risk management group."

The rating agency also reserves the possibility to study "the implications of such an event on the ability of management to grow the sales of the investment bank in a suitable manner in terms of risk and the potential impact on profits of another setback on that front free business cards. " And Moody's adds: "Similarly, we will consider the potential implications of such an event on the reputation of UBS to its customers of its private banking and wealth management."

However, Moody's believes that the examination of the situation "is unlikely to lead to damage of more than one notch."The bank in turn stated that the case was likely to plunge into the red its third quarter results, but that customers should not suffer directly.

Markets, the penalty was immediate: the title UBS closed Thursday down 9.75% to 10.80 Swiss francs in a market up 0.29%. It must be said that the bank accumulated problems. In 2008, she was among the banks most exposed to subprime. More recently, the bank paid the $ 780 million U.S. in tax evasion Affiris. And some observers are quick to mention the outright end of the business of investment bank UBS.

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While many criminal investigations are underway in the United States against Goldman Sachs, the management of the investment bank is taking the lead. Concordant sources, its chief executive, Lloyd Blankfein, has hired Reid Weingarten, a lawyer outside the company. The establishment said that such recruitment is not exceptional. Thus, a spokesman for the group stated that: "As is common in such situations, Lloyd Blankfein and other members of society must be heard as part of an investigation by the Justice Department U.S. response to the issues raised by a report (of a commission of inquiry of the Senate) have hired a lawyer. "

But in exchange, the reaction was particularly violent: the title of the bank plunged 4.7% to 106.51 dollars on Monday.The action that had opened up a hook at the very end of the session in the wake of the announcement by Reuters, the recruitment of Reid Weingarten. The decline then continued as in trade after the market fell to 105.45 dollars. The markets are worried because of legal troubles that will face the bank and could affect the company and its future profits.

Profile Reid Weingarten feeds the fears of Wall Street

The profile of the chosen lawyer, Reid Weingarten, fueling fears of investors. The latter is one of the most renowned lawyers in the defense of white collar crimes. He has defended the former CEO of WorldCom, Bernard Ebbers and former CFO of Enron, Richard Causey credit reports free. Both men are currently incarcerated for fraud.Reid Weingarten recently said to be "used to defend difficult cases where my clients are hated by all." He has also defended including the former legal adviser to the U.S. energy broker Tyco, former executive director of classifieds site Monster.com employment and CEOs of U.S. Neteller online banking and the reinsurer Gen Re . All suspected fraud, tax or other.

After being hired by executives of Goldman Sachs, some are asking: "Why hire someone like that?" And for them, "it means only one thing: they take the matter seriously."

Goldman Sachs is not his first brush with the law. Accused of misleading its customers at the height of the crisis, the bank had paid $ 550 million in June 2010 to settle a complaint by the U.S. authority to regulate stock exchanges (SEC).And recently, the U.S. Senate issued a 650-page report very critical of the bank for its handling of the subprime crisis. The Justice Department is also continuing its investigation into Goldman Sachs and questions about its activities and its role in financial crisis. The bank is particularly accused of misleading its customers shortly before the outbreak of the financial crisis. She also denies two years of accusations of fraud and conflict of interest.

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