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Droughts and fires will they bring Russia to its knees? The Russian government admitted on Tuesday that recent weather events will cost between 0.7 and 0.8 growth in the country. Without this unprecedented heat wave last half-century, the Russian economy would have increased from 4.4 to 4.7% in 2010, according to a first estimate unveiled by Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach. The final cost of these disasters should be known in November.

"The extreme heat and smoke from fires have forced businesses to close their plants or reduce their production schedules," according to economists at HSBC payday advance lenders. "The productivity of those who have maintained their production has declined considerably." These climatic events were particularly affected the agricultural sector. Wheat production is expected to drop by and third.What make analysts more pessimistic than the government: they think the heat wave is expected to cost a point of growth.

Russia, however, had started the year well, with a growth rate of 2.9% in the first quarter and 5.2% in the second. "In the third quarter, the activity should be particularly weak and a scenario of stagnation can not be ruled out," HSBC economists said.

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Alcatel-Lucent continues its annual forecast, after presenting its results for the second quarter. The telecoms equipment maker has finished the past three months with a net loss of 184 million euros, equivalent to a net loss per diluted share of 0.08 euro. This net loss is worse than the result recorded in the same period a year ago, which then displayed in the green, to 14 million euros. But the quarterly net loss marks a clear improvement over results reported in the previous quarter, during which the group had lost 515 million euros.

Alcatel-Lucent is delighted especially to see its operating profit return to equilibrium. Adjusted data, it is 28 million euros, or 0.7% of revenues.In published data, it remains negative, at -45 million euros, against 130 million euros a year ago, and -263 000 000 euros at the end of first quarter 2010.

Low activity in China

The group's turnover was slightly lower on a year. In fall of 2.4% over the second quarter of 2009, it stood at 3.813 billion euros, or 17.4% more than during the previous three months. The effects of consolidation and exchange rates were favorable to the group on the quarter. Adjusted data, the turnover of the second quarter is apparent down 6.9% year on year, but it remains up from the previous quarter (+11.8%).

"The momentum has been strong in North America with a double-digit growth and the trend has improved in the world, lower income there is much less marked than in the first quarter.The revenue decline in Europe has remained the order of almost 10%. Finally, Asia Pacific has experienced a double digit decline, due to low activity in China, partly offset by significant growth in India, "the company said.

An improvement in adjusted gross margin

The group's adjusted gross margin rebounded to 36.1%, an improvement of three points over one year and by 3.5 points compared with the margin achieved during the first three months of 2010.

Alcatel-Lucent is confident for the second half. Ben Verwaayen, the CEO of Alcatel-Lucent, promises to "maintain a strict control of costs and expenses." He anticipates a "second half of 2010 supported, thanks to a growing backlog.Additional benefits are expected in the coming quarters. "

The group believes that "despite the shortage of components that still impact our supply chain, demand for telecommunications equipment and related services is recovering." He believes that the growing market for telecommunications equipment will be between 0% and 5% this year. In this context, Alcatel-Lucent intends to achieve an operating profit Adjusted between 1% and 5% of its revenues.

The garden party at the Elysee was it canceled too late? The caterers will they be reimbursed? Taxpayers will pay the note they? After the announcement of the cancellation of approvals under the Ministries of Interior, Overseas, in the prefectures and sub-prefectures, these issues are on everyone's lips. Especially since the member Rene Dosière (related PS) spoke for the receipt of an invoice 313 618 2009 euros. The debate, then fed by Ségolène Royal in an interview with the Nouvel Observateur, however, is minimized by the main actors of the case.

"There was no cancellation in the legal sense. These are the tenders that have been canceled. Today, nobody can say 'I lost the case, because no one had been chosen "slice Lars Bernard, vice president of Synhorcat, a leading professional trade."So there is no impact because in this profession, we do not prepare anything in advance. A caterer is not Picard, irritated the union representative.

Same story on the side of the Elysee usual caterers. "We were still at the stage of tendering. We filed our application and we expect the answer. We have therefore incurred no expenses, "said Francois Raynier, owner of upscale catering Raynier Marchetti, who denies the passage strengthened its team of 150 people in anticipation of the Garden Party. "150 is our average size," says he.

"From homemade

The prefecture also announced that the cancellations last minute should incur any costs because the buffets are mostly prepared in-house. "We use the kitchen of the prefecture," says one in Rennes.In the Sarthe, everything is "homemade" due to "credit limit". The few jurisdictions involving caterers explain – as is the case in Mayenne – they were still "at the stage estimates.

In the Alpes-Maritimes, the services of the prefecture are in this case state spending "very minimal" to "a few hundred euros": "We're pooling with the city of Nice and the General Council of Alpes-Maritimes limit spending from outside caterers, "says a spokeswoman.

Flexibility

Even if there had been a contract between two parties, there is no fixed schedule for repayment in the profession, making negotiations on a case by case basis between the provider and client paydayloan. "It's the law of business but we always find common ground," says Bernard Bras.In case of cancellation, the situation remains manageable, "he assures," It is a profession without visibility. Sometimes some customers confirm the case only 3-4 days before the big day We are accustomed to this kind of situation. "

At the forefront of the controversy, the food critics temper this speech. According to them, traders are well advised not to claim compensation for the expected win lucrative contracts in the future. "It's flattering to prepare the buffet or the Elysee Matignon is a commercial asset, an honor, a good card," says Claude Lebey, editor and author of restaurant guides.

Rebound

The representative of Synhorcat still regrets the loss of activity represented by these cancellations. "We are talking thousands of hours of work.For the Elysee, the decision could also have been taken earlier this year when the budget is fixed ….

For the future, the profession remains optimistic. The idea of a snowball effect of cancellations is scanned. "On the corporate side, which represent nearly 80% of our business, we see a rather significant recovery from last year," says Lars Bernard. "These are not exceptional receptions for when the box is bad, do not 'do too much peter cap'. But when there is a quick turnaround, we must celebrate. This is happening today. " The other big market traders – that of individuals – is also on the mend: "over time, we notice that people continue to celebrate events," notes vice president of Synhorcat. The public sector, the smallest of openings, should be the one to be hit hard.

"End 2008-2009, business has plummeted because of last minute cancellations of contracts. In the worst of the crisis, some professionals have lost 40% activity, ensures Lars Bernard. 2010 is therefore a year of healing. Regarding cancellations, we are entitled to think that this will not be like that all year. "

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With the 5000 guests at the garden party Elysian

The morale of French households do not seem to favor a clear recovery in consumption. In the first quarter, sales of Casino in France and have fallen 0.9% after falling 2.7% in 2009. Although the strong growth recorded by the distributor Stéphanois abroad (10.2% in the first quarter, after 5% last year) largely offset this decline, the group must respond. Jean-Charles Naouri, its CEO, shares his strategy in an interview with Le Figaro.

LE FIGARO – The morale of your customer shops is it affected by the crisis?

Jean-Charles Naouri – Many signs show that pessimism has worsened. He returned in September 2008, at the peak of the crisis. Because of the crisis of Greek and that of the euro, the fear of job loss has increased and concern about the standard of living reached a record high since 2007.The French prefer the job security of their purchasing power and their careers. This general pessimism is, however disconnected from the real economy, which seems to gradually resume. France is no longer in a situation of danger of deflation, the interest rates are permanently lower a guarantee for the future, and the weak euro is an element of recovery. The figures, including our own business performance, there are better a couple years.

Consumer behavior change it?

We found two relatively recent trends Firstly, in an environment seen as more complex, consumers no longer want it decides for them. They want to regain control over product quality, origin and value for money in particular.Similarly, while far to the client, other consumers were at best indifferent and at worst seen as troublemakers, he now draws more and more choices to their preferences and ratings. This horizontal communication facilitated by the Internet, this new proximity, we must reflect and inspire us to develop relationships with our customers in and outside the store.

How are you adapting?

We have a head start in this area because we have long been close to the heart of our strategy. We could for example indicate, in each point of sale, the preferred products or selling. We already strong commitments on the quality of our products.We reassure our customers, for example about what they buy indicating on the Casino-brand products, in addition to the nutritional use their carbon footprint, or that they are without oil palm and gluten free. We just put in place within the group, a Health Committee attended by several senior experts whose mission is to anticipate health issues and help Casino make good choices on offer. We also test systems dematerialized Innovative allowing customers to share their recommendations.

Hypermarkets Géant Casino continue to lose market share.Are they so essential for the massification of procurement and management of shopping malls you plan to transfer them not to invest in your most promising formats nearby?

I believe in small and medium format hypermarkets (6 000-8 000 square meters), which constitute the backbone of malls. I believe in the relevance of non-food offer in textiles, leisure and household equipment. Casino no reason to separate from Géant. Our superstores are as profitable as those of our competitors, and we set the target that market share has stabilized Géant Casino this year.Remember, also, that 40% of group turnover from international have a double-digit growth in France and the formats most carriers (Franprix, Monoprix supermarket Casino …) know sustained growth, which boosts the overall growth of revenues of Casino.

How is the recovery of your brand discount Leader Price, whose sales fell sharply last year?

This is another priority group in France in 2010. We are very pleased with the sales growth in stores converted to the new concept and we are accelerating the pace of refurbishment of outlets from week to week.

Could you introduce CDiscount stock exchange to accelerate the deleveraging of the group?

This is not the agenda.A listing imposes many constraints on management whose priority now is to continue double-digit growth in turnover. We are the leader, but in a very competitive environment.

Can you imagine Rueducommerce complementarities with the site, which Rally has just 8% of capital?

It is a very minority participation, without presence on the board of directors.

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"Sales of the International Casino climb

A director known worldwide and 28 International Experts. The cast was humorous in the U.S. where critics of James Cameron announced that Leonardo DiCaprio would save BP. However, it is the director of Titanic, which last week gave the U.S. administration and President Obama a report analyzing the solutions implemented by the BP group to pump oil at the origin of massive oil spill affecting the Gulf of Mexico since the explosion of the platform Deepwater Horizon on April 20 last.

The pumping operation implemented by the British group since the beginning of June can not harvest all the oil leaking from the wells.The report, which Le Figaro has obtained a copy, said however that "BP has put in place adequate resources to address the problem," that "decisions taken by the hour after the incident are good for most" but that "more needs to be done." The panel, composed of military personnel, members of the U.S. administration, senior oil industry, meteorologists and coastguard, is especially worried about the pumping capacity of the facilities put in place and their ability to adapt to cyclones that will not fail to develop the area in the coming weeks.

Restart Operation "Kill Top»

The report therefore recommends "three solutions to medium term. It is proposed to add 8 columns pumping of oil field to the three that have been put in place by the oil group.It would exploit holes already drilled in the framework of Operation "Top Kill" capping the well in late May that resulted in failure. "It would be possible to recover far more oil than is being pumped," the report said. Experts indicate that 11 holes would substantially increase pumping capacity and limit the flow of oil into the ocean.

The vessel there since the beginning makes it possible to recover 15,000 barrels per day and a second vessel connected last week on the damaged wellhead should eventually pump 20,000 to 28,000 barrels per day. Insufficient, while 60,000 barrels daily flow into the ocean.

The second recommendation is to replace the current system of pumping with valves placed in depth by a system with valves on the surface.This equipment would stop pumping more rapidly in the event of a hurricane landfall. The experts also recommend that membership cap recovery connected to the wellhead is strengthened. They said it would send the "epoxy", "hooks" and "cement" in the hat, the high pressure and suction at this depth (1500 meters) will had to take this kind of dough.

The third recommendation is to relaunch the operation "Top Kill" bailout sinks for the butcher. Experts suggest that a second pipe is inserted into the wells, the side of those who pump oil, and that this second "pipe" sends a very heavy mud to plug.According to them, sending mud associated with pressure pumping may this time be successful.

The report finally announced that he will make proposals for "such environmental threats are dealt with more effectively in the future." According to our data the use of explosives could cause a collapse and to cap the well has been studied and could be proposed as a protocol for action in case of "new September 11th green."

The hole in government finances gradually fills. The state budget deficit has narrowed significantly over one year thanks to higher tax revenues. According to recent estimates by the Ministry of Budget released Tuesday, it rose to 56.2 billion euros in late April against 71.6 billion a year earlier, at the height of the crisis.

The increase in revenues explains this improvement, with 81.6 billion euros against 70.2 billion a year earlier. The only tax revenues increased by 11.3 billion. In contrast, spending rose slightly, to 130.6 billion euros in late April against 127 billion a year earlier.

Revenue growth could continue in the coming months if economic activity is more vigorous as anticipated the Bank of France (BDF).The institution has in fact confirmed its growth forecast for the second quarter to 0.5% in its May business survey released Tuesday. The activity increased only 0.1% over the first three months of the year.

Dynamism of the interim

In May, the services have been fired by the rebound of the interim and computer activities, details the Bank of France. However, "forecasts indicate a more moderate increase in activity in the coming months," notes BdF. In industry, all sectors advanced, with the exception of the car, even if the rate of use of means of production remains below its long period to 76.2% in April against 75.7 % in March."The outlook in the short term [the industry] are oriented towards maintaining production," notes BdF.

Trade deficit down

On Tuesday, Customs has also published the trade figures in April. The trade deficit was only moderately reduced by 160 million euros compared to the previous month, -4248000000 euros. Exports, driven by major aerospace contracts, rose 1%, more strongly than imports.

"The geographical breakdown of the data confirms that the resumption of world trade is indeed driven by demand from emerging economies," notes Alberto Balboni, an economist at Xerfi."The French exports to China grew by 38.6% in value compared to last year, a pace almost four times more sustained than those to the European Union." But the empire Environment is still only 3% of exports hexagonal.

Falling German exports

In the same month of April, German exports fell by 8.03% compared to the previous month, according to figures released on Tuesday the Federal Statistics Office Destatis. After a dramatic rebound of 22.3% in March, this figure "must be analyzed as a small correction," relativize Natixis economists in a note.

However, the decline in German imports of 4.63% seems to be bad news for France, the first trading partner of Germany.And things should not be arranged in the coming months, with the establishment in 2011 of fiscal savings of 11.2 billion euros in Germany. As noted Juliette Hubert, Aster, "plans rigorously engaged by our trading partners will lead to a contraction of the request to the French industry."

The World arouses much envy. Reportedly, a pair of French investors, the financier Pierre Berg? and Matthew Pigasse (boss of Lazard France) have already created an ad hoc finance their investment group Le Monde, which must find at least 50 million euros of fresh money by the summer. They could submit their applications before the end of June, when the direction of the World should submit details of its recapitalization plan to vote of its shareholders.

For its part, Le Nouvel Observateur has formalized its commitment Tuesday night to climb to the capital of the world which holds 1.75%. "Given the funding problems that arise, Le Nouvel Observateur can not remain indifferent and wants to contribute to a solution that preserves this independence," he said.Contacted yesterday, confirming The World "in talks with the group Nouvel Observateur, which is not the only one with which he pursues the talks". Spanish Prisa, a shareholder of 15.01% of the world, and L'Espresso have already expressed their interest in recent months.

PSA Peugeot Citroen has issued a statement Thursday confirming finally signed with China Chang'An Automobile Group (CCAG) "a letter of intent for the creation of a joint venture in China."

The French group announced in January that targeted a growth of 30% of its sales in China in 2010 from 3.4% to 8% share of the market by 2015-2016. Last year, PSA had sold 450,000 vehicles, while General Motor and Volkswagen sold respectively 1.8 and 1.4 million vehicles cash loans Guaranteed approval ".The Chinese market is indeed a challenge for the major car manufacturers: the Middle Kingdom has become the world's biggest car market last year, overtaking the United States, with 13.64 million vehicles sold in 2009.

Peugeot was already present in China through a partnership with Dongfeng society. But it is located in Beijing and in the center. Instead, Changan Peugeot opens the market for the East Coast, including the rapidly growing region of Shanghai.

Unemployment is leveling off in the euro area. 10% in March 2010, the unemployment rate adjusted for seasonal variations remain in effect identical to that for the month of February. A year earlier the rate was however lower at 9.1%. The EU as a whole is a bit lower at 9.6% in March 2010, also unchanged from the same month a year earlier, Eurostat said on Friday.

So these are 15 million unemployed in the euro area accounts in March, 23 million for the EU-27. In one year, Germany is the only one EU country to have recorded a decline in unemployment, falling 7.4% to 7.3%. All other countries saw their unemployment rates increase because of the economic crisis.But are Latvia (the rate jumped to 14, 3% to 22.3%), Estonia (from 7.6% to 15.5% between the fourth quarters of 2008 and 2009) and Lithuania (from 8.1% to 15.8% between the fourth quarters of 2008 and 2009), which record the highest increases in the EU low fee pay day loans.

If it were up to now difficult to find a tandance about the evolution of unemployment figures, said Societe Generale's analysts now tend to think that the situation should improve in the second quarter.

It should be noted that the rate of female unemployment is still slightly higher than men (10.1% against 10%), but posted a much lower increase. The youth are always the most affected by unemployment, with a proportion of 19.9% in the euro area and 20.6% in the EU.Spain and Latvia beat on this sad record, with respective rates of 41.2% and 44.9%.

The National Assembly must decide on Tuesday on the bill to regulate the consumer credit. The text, which has already been approved by the Senate must pass the difficult balance between maintaining economic activity supported in part by the credit and the necessary protection of indebted households.

The number of cases filed with the commission of indebtedness that is constantly increasing. A phenomenon considered especially worrisome by the Bank of France that the population affected by the debt overhang is not the same. When creating the indebtedness committee with the law Neiertz 1989, he was helping people who had not managed their budgets: the syndrome of fever buyer where people were abusing the loan to purchase a 4X4 or high-tech products.But since the late 1990s, a new category of people are facing the problem of indebtedness, with the emergence of "new poor", that is to say who, though having a job, fail longer pay the bills of electricity or gas. And the crisis has accentuated the trend by multiplying the number of "accidents of life, including the number of households affected by unemployment, low rates payday advance. Since 2008, the Bank of France notes an increase in cases of indebtedness of approximately 16% per year.

The latest statistics released by the agency confirm this movement. 19,380 cases have been filed with the commission in February 2010. 20.5% higher than the previous month.

The Bank, however states that one should not jump to conclusions, due to some seasonality.The first months of the year are in fact traditionally the stigma of Christmas. A phenomenon in which the new text may perhaps act. It provides for a doubling of the period of withdrawal of clients (14 days instead of 7), the obligation of loyalty card stores offered an option "cash" or a limitation of revolving credit and advertising. The banks and specialized agencies should then put more emphasis on the commitment that is a credit on the ease of obtaining money.