Philippe Mimran – all depends what you mean by "safe." If this is the sense of repayable loan, the answer is yes. France is able to repay its debts. However, if the sense of an investment that does not generate short-term losses, the answer is no. In other words, the French government bonds are no longer as safe as German bonds. Financial markets expect interest rates continue to rise. This difference of 190 basis points is the same as that between Italian bonds and German bonds in July.The French bonds are more risky than a month ago, European banks sell massively.

Why?

The rules for accounting for government bonds in banks' balance sheets have changed. Until then, when a bank subscribed to an obligation of 100 million euros to 2.5%, it maintained that amount on its balance sheet and collected an annual coupon of 2.5%. And, regardless of the carrying amount of the obligation. Now, if the title is only worth 90 million euros, it instantly suffer a loss of 10%. The balance sheet of banks is affected. For secure, regulators require them to strengthen their capital.

Greece but also Italy crystallize the main concerns have increased as rumors of leaving the Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, immediately denied by the latter. Nevertheless, if the vote to be held tomorrow at the Chamber of Deputies on the budget is negative, the departure of Cavaliere seem inevitable.

At the same time, the finance ministers of the euro area gathered in Brussels last night stepped up their pressure on Athens and Rome to the two countries meet their commitments to reduce deficits.In the process, Wall Street ended on an optimistic note. This morning, Asian markets have proven uncertain and divided: while Tokyo closed down 1.27% to 8655.51 points, Hong Kong is the balance just before 8 am (Paris time) around 19,696 , 11 points.

In this context, oil prices were up this morning in early electronic trading. The barrel of "light sweet crude" for December delivery gained 8 cents to 95.60 dollars. Barrel of Brent North Sea crude for December delivery advanced on his side of 22 cents to 114.78 dollars.

In terms of macroeconomic indicators, the figures of foreign trade in value in September will be unveiled today at 8:45. INSEE also publish the price of oil and raw materials in October at noon.

The American action in partnership, supported by a California resident, filed Wednesday in federal court in Santa Ana, California. Research In Motion is accused of breach of contract, negligence and unjust enrichment.The complaint, filed on behalf of 2.4 million BlackBerry users in the state, requires financial compensation.

The other complaint, filed in the Superior Court of Quebec, on the lands of RIM, is from the "Group of consumer law", a firm specializing in class actions. She asks RIM to "take measures to offset direct or indirect users of BlackBerry," and "arranging" for operators reimburse their customers.

A drop in share price

Following the cut massive services reached between 11 and 14 October, the group of Waterloo, Ontario, decided to offer its customers for $ 100 of free applications for compensation and a free month technical maintenance for businesses."We are committed to ensuring a high level of reliability now and in the future," had secured one of two owners of RIM, Mike Lazaridis.

These two class actions against Research In Motion have been filed when the company through this week a new crisis of confidence, stock market this time. On Wednesday, the share price was unscrewed from 7.48% after the announcement of the postponement until February of the second generation of the PlayBook. This tablet, which would compete with the iPad, has so far garnered very disappointing results. Since 2011, the title of Research In Motion has lost almost two thirds of its value.

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The French are indeed very pessimistic. Only 4% of them believe in a crisis within the next six months. Nearly a majority (46%), however, do not expect improvement until 2014. "This survey highlights the malaise of the French," said Frederic Dabi, director of the division of opinion Ifop."For them, this is a serious crisis which they do not see the exit and on which policies can not be weighed." However, they are preparing for 57% of the "painful and difficult measures." They are also willing to make sacrifices, including cutting costs in their "comfort" and in their holiday budget, the study said.

When asked about the causes of the crisis, 52% of French people point the finger at the role of financial markets. Far behind, the government (26%), banks (15%), EU (10%), the French as a whole (6%), emerging (5%) and businesses (1%) are also considered partially responsible for the current crisis. "Paradoxically, while their commitment to the EU is often tenuous, the French for more Europe," Frederic Dabi analysis.As proof, they say they support the creation of a European Ministry of Economy.

Theme of the presidential election

As European leaders gather in Brussels on Sunday for a coordinated response to the crisis, the French have already an idea of ​​what the state could do 63% of them believe the government should take an interest in banks, either by becoming the majority shareholder of the establishment or nationalization. Despite their concern, 23% of respondents would prefer the state to intervene simply abstain. Maybe they think that the French economy can only suffer, as the government prepares to revise downwards its growth forecast for 2012 still set at 1.75%."Part of the public continues to believe that when dealing with Greece, it does not deal with French," says Pierre Giacometti, advisor opinion of the President of the Republic, in the columns of world.

Yet a few months before the presidential election, the crisis in the euro area will be the theme of the campaign. Nicolas Sarkozy will speak on the subject on television next Thursday, the day after the second EU summit is to say, once firm decisions have been taken. A key event with the French, while the popularity of the president is at half mast. "Even if the credits of some courage, nothing will be counted as long as there is a lack of visibility on the crisis," Pierre Giacometti analysis in Le Monde.

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While the debt crisis still occupies all minds. Last night, Spain has been the target of the rating agencies.After Fitch, Standard and Poor's lowered turn a notch sovereign rating of Spain, to "AA-", citing the "uncertain prospects for growth" of the country and the likely further deterioration in the Spanish financial system . Banks are also in the viewfinder. While the leaders of the euro area support more vigorously a recapitalization of the sector, Fitch up seven institutions on negative watch, including French banks BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale.

However, investors welcomed the good news last night: the green light given by the Slovak Parliament to strengthen the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). This gives air to the single European currency traded at 1.3802 dollars around 15 hours.

Debt problems in the euro zone should just stay in the heart of the Paris meeting, tonight and tomorrow until Saturday, finance ministers of the latter must include G20.Ces prepare the summit to be held in early November. France has also supported the idea of ​​making Thursday the EFSF bank. The markets have hopes of progress on the case.

Busy schedule

Operators also appreciate the battery indicator on both sides of the Atlantic side disappointment, inflation accelerated more than expected in September in the euro area, moving to 3% against 2.5% the month above, said Friday the EU statistics office Eurostat.

However the U.S., retail sales rose more than expected in September (1.1% against 0.7% expected). At the same time, import prices in the U.S. rose 0.3%.Rather reassuring statistics on the state of the U.S. economy. However, most investors expect the index of consumer sentiment for October and business inventories.

In China, inflation slowed slightly to 6.1% in September, against 6.2% in August, the government said Friday, but remains at a high level that does not bode a loosening of Chinese monetary policy.

Values ​​to follow

Banking sector

Placement on negative watch by Fitch of several institutions weighs on prices.BNP Paribas lost 3.49% to 32.18 euros, Societe Generale 2.62% to 21.04 euros and Credit Agricole 0.42% to 5.26 euros.

Veolia Environnement: 1.21% to 11.30 euros

The group has hired investment bank DC Advisory for the sale Citelum, a major global players in the lighting and electronic equipment areas, reports Les Echos.

Accor: 2.70% to 22.64 dollars

Already a leader in Asia Pacific, the group will open more than 200 by 2014, including doubling its presence in Indonesia, new land for expansion after China and India. The group also plans to sell seven hotels Suite Hotel, located mostly in Paris, for $ 77 million to a consortium of French investors.

CA Cheuvreux has decided to lower its price target from 35.5 to 29.5 euros to reflect the slowdown in the global economy but it remains to outperform.

Carrefour: 1.78% to 17.15 euros

Cheuvreux lowered its price target from 19 to 16 euros and remains under-performance.

GDF Suez: 1.58% to 23.49 euros

According to a report in Le Figaro, confirmed by a spokesman, the gas distributor has filed an appeal Thursday in the Council of State against the government's decision to freeze gas prices for individuals from 1 October.

Belvedere: 3.22% to 29.14 euros

The Court of Appeal of Nimes, which examined the validity of Thursday a new backup procedure given in July to spirits group, has reserved its decision on 1 December, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Eurazeo: 1.53% to 33.21 euros

The group announced Thursday an investment of 37 million euros in 3S Photonics, a French specialist in opto-electronic components including the Strategic Investment Fund held 18%.The operation, which includes a capital increase will allow Eurazeo to control 83% of 3S Photonics.

Stallergènes: 1.11% to 45.60 euros

The group confirmed Thursday its growth objectives and scope for this year despite the slowdown in activity growth in the third quarter.

Eutelsat: 1.16% to 29.74 euros

The group announced Thursday night that he would propose to the November 8th general meeting of shareholders to elect as president of its board of directors Jean-Martin Folz, former CEO of PSA Peugeot Citroën, succeeding Giuliano Berretta .

Netgem: -4.51% to 2.75 euros

The group reported Thursday a drop of 45% of its turnover in the first nine months of the year to 59.4 million euros and said that the forecast revenue in the second half would be comparable to the first.He added that his business continued to grow profitably, to increase cash flow.

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In a statement, the three governments reaffirmed their solidarity in the search for a solution that is shaping the future of Dexia, and ensure the management of the banking group, their full support."The proposed solution, which is also the result of intense consultations with all relevant partners, will be presented to the Board of Directors of Dexia which is responsible for approving proposals", they said, without giving more details on how they have learned.

A purchase of 100% of the Belgian branch

Sunday morning, Finance Minister Didier Reynders had indicated in an interview with the RTBF channel that Belgium did not exclude to redeem all of Dexia Bank Belgium (DBB), the Belgian entity of the bank. The price of DBB is estimated between 3 and 7.5 billion euros, and the Belgian State is priced in the low end. "The state will rise sharply in power. If we were 100% (in the capital of Dexia Bank Belgium), I do not rule, we do not intend to stay indefinitely. This does not mean that we will stay three months or six months, "he said.Given the scale of the debt crisis, the Minister of Finance estimated even possible that the state is still present in the capital of DBB in three to five years on line pay day loans.

The scheme favors dismantling of Dexia now a nationalization of the Belgian entity, Dexia Bank Belgium and in France the creation of a new bank dedicated to local communities. This would take the portfolio of loans to local Dexia's a small part comes in the form of toxic loans in the heart of the turmoil for several months. Other assets such as Denizbank, the Turkish subsidiary, Dexia BIL in Luxembourg or be sold. Quatar's sovereign wealth fund would also be interested in the latter entity. The amount of these operations is unknown.

Belgium Dexia has already saved the first time in 2008 by injecting, like Paris, three billion euros.So now it seeks to limit the bill, said Saturday the Belgian daily L'Echo.

In the spirit of Belgian politicians, the idea is to have a solution on the table before Monday morning and the opening exchanges in Europe. Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme wants the government proposals to be endorsed soon.

(With agencies)

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But these sharp increases conceal a very strong tension that dominated the entire session, enhanced by the excitement of Wall Street in the afternoon. The indices have been a roller coaster, changing direction at the rate of market rumors regarding the euro area.For example, one on a veto of Austria to strengthen the European support fund, has reduced the CAC in the afternoon, before being denied and allow a rise in prices.

Operators have reacted strongly to all new they had prior to the call for debt in Athens tonight, between the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They expect this meeting to real progress on the issue of Greece's debt.

The Polish Finance Minister, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the EU, has poured oil on the fire by stating that Europe was "in danger". Conversely, José Manuel Barroso has played the appeasement card confirming the presentation of a study on options for the creation of Eurobonds, desired by the market mechanism guaranteed online personal loans.Pending possible support more concrete, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in turn referred to a strengthening of Chinese investment in Europe.

Side values, the banking sector has best illustrated the nervousness of investors. Despite degradation by Moody's debt of Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, and the maintenance of a negative watch for BNP Paribas, the banks had continued to rebound early in the day. But the trend was reversed late in the session. Finally, BNP Paribas 3.93% drops to EUR 26.90 and signs the worst performance of the CAC. Societe Generale lost 2.88% to 17.38 euros (the share was still over 8% in half an hour of closing). Crédit Agricole manages to stay in the green of accuracy (1.22% to 5.21%).

Areva decline (-2% to 20.58 euros) despite the announcement by the BBC of an order of over one billion euros by EDF (3.20% to 19.98 euros).Michelin, which maintains its targets for 2011, gaining 5.13% to 46.49 euros.

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The government downgraded its growth forecasts: this year, French GDP to increase by 1.75% against 2% originally planned. The same progression, 1.75%, is expected in 2012 against 2.25% previously expected.

The new measures

To achieve these objectives, Prime Minister François Fillon unveiled on Wednesday a new set of austerity measures. Most were expected. But Fillon said part of some key measures announced and others that had not been discussed so far.

– A tax on high incomes: it will be 3% income tax reference (capital and labor) from 500,000 euros.

– Increase of 1.2% of payroll taxes on capital income. Until now, property income (interest, dividends, life insurance products) were subject to social security contributions up to an overall level of 12.3%. This rate will increase to 13.5% and will apply to income in 2011."These households are mainly those whose standard of living is higher," insists Matignon.

– Overtime: The government has decided to reinstate the overtime in the Schedule of nationwide reduction of "maintaining the specific tax and social benefits," said the Prime Minister. Specifically, this measure will not change for employees whose net pay is not reduced and that the tax will not be increased. For employers, they will continue to benefit from the exemptions from overtime under declared but will have their planed reduce charges on low wages.

"This is not in any way to challenge the law Tepa who works overtime an instrument for business flexibility and purchasing power of employees," said François Fillon.This provision will be included in the draft budget law for 2012 Social Security to be debated in Parliament in the fall. It shall come into force on 1 January next year and will generate 600 million euros in revenue from additional contributions.

– Changing the taxation of real estate capital gains: is the measure that will bring the most in 2012 with an estimated saving of 2.2 billion euros. It is a measure that will bring the most to the state. It affects the owners of second homes, rental properties, building land or vacant. Until now, capital gains realized on the sale of immovable property (excluding principal residence) are taxed at 19% (plus payroll taxes). But the gain was undergoing a reduction of 10% per annum from the fifth year of detention.In the end, beyond 15 years in prison capital gains realized on the sale of these goods were therefore exempt from taxes. The government decided to abolish this reduction of 10% and derogatory "to tax real estate gains actually realized, after controlling for inflation no teletrack payday loan." Specifically, a tax of 19% will therefore apply to the capital gain, derived from the inflation recorded since the date of acquisition. Small clarification: This measure takes effect from the sales made after August 24, that is to say … Today!

– A new "movement of the plane" 10% of the score of tax loopholes already reduced much of last year.Are concerned and niches favoring certain investments overseas, investment in rental housing (Scellier) or the tax credit on equipment green.

– The rising price of tobacco, alcohol and soft drinks: Tobacco prices will increase by 6% in October and again in 2012. Taxes on spirits will be increased by 90 cents per liter. Wines, rums and regional productions are not affected. With the same public health argument, a tax 'anti-obesity "on soft drinks will be introduced next year, the benefit of the social security. Mentioned several times over the past years, this project had so far been held in check by the food industry.

– The complementary health will be more severely taxed to report 1.1 billion euros in 2012.Even non-existent a year ago, the tax which perform mutual and private insurers on Contracts for additional "responsible" will double to 7%.

Contracts for Health "responsible" people do not pay deductibles (1 euro per visit, 50 cents per box of medicine …) or supplements for consultations with specialists outside managed care, and do not set their contributions according to the health of the insured. They represent over 90% market share. There is no doubt that further protest and say forced to raise their prices after this. To maintain a – small – incentive for this type of contract, the contract tax "not responsible" will she, range from 7% to 9%.

– The corporate tax will be amended to harmonize the rules with Germany.The government will propose the harmonization of the report deficits in terms of corporate taxes with the rules in force in Germany. Paris and Berlin had already announced their intention to create a "common corporation tax" in 2013.

– Increased social package of 6% to 8%. The social package is a levy paid by the employer on the amount it pays its employees under the employee savings plan (participation, sharing …). Currently 6%, this package will be raised by 2 points, rising to 8%. The social package was created in 2009 and raised by 2 points every year since. This should bring 400 million euros in savings.

These measures will be proposed to parliament next week for debate in early September and be implemented quickly.

The case of addiction, however, should suffer from this new austerity plan."Addressing this issue in the economic and financial climate is not responsible," said the Prime Minister.

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The tertiary sector contributes almost exclusively to these creations (57,200 jobs), the industry confirms his recovery: 6600 jobs were created in this sector, according to Insee. This is his second consecutive quarter of growth. "This sector lost jobs every quarter since 2001," says INSEE.

Only government minister to be able to celebrate yesterday, Xavier Bertrand (Labour, Employment, Health) welcomed that "210,600 jobs a year (have) been created." He sees "a positive signal about the vitality of the real economy." This movement is all the more surprising that growth has been sluggish in recent months.

"You have to look at the figure of 0% over the period issued yesterday: considering the annual growth and relating to the last four quarters, we see that the quarterly growth rate is invariably French 0.4%, says Frédéric Gonand, associate professor of economics at Paris Dauphine. This shows that even with 1.6% annual rate, which corresponds to its potential growth, France is creating jobs. "

According to Dares, the index of the basic monthly wage (SMB) increased by 0.6% in the second quarter, representing an increase of 2.1% over one year. This significant increase of basic wages does not mean a sharp increase in the purchasing power of households. In the second quarter, prices rose 0.5% year on year and they operate around 2%.The purchasing power has improved very little, which explains the weakness of consumption in recent months.

Disinflation energy

But-and this is another rare good news in the farm figures released yesterday, according to Insee, the consumer prices fell by 0.4% in July. A decline mainly due balances but also by the expansion of energy prices. Under these conditions, if the job market continues to grow at the same pace as earlier this year, the disposable income of households could improve a little.

"Disinflation energy currently underway should provide some support the purchasing power of households," say economists at Natixis.The main pillar of the French economy will be a little stronger in the second half, provided that the fiscal savings provided by the government do not result in a tax grab too much, the experts continue to Natixis.

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