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Lefigaro.fr – The gap between interest rates of French and German bonds this week hit levels not seen for 20 years (200 bp). French government bonds are they a safe investment?

Philippe Mimran – all depends what you mean by "safe." If this is the sense of repayable loan, the answer is yes. France is able to repay its debts. However, if the sense of an investment that does not generate short-term losses, the answer is no. In other words, the French government bonds are no longer as safe as German bonds. Financial markets expect interest rates continue to rise. This difference of 190 basis points is the same as that between Italian bonds and German bonds in July.The French bonds are more risky than a month ago, European banks sell massively.

Why?

The rules for accounting for government bonds in banks' balance sheets have changed. Until then, when a bank subscribed to an obligation of 100 million euros to 2.5%, it maintained that amount on its balance sheet and collected an annual coupon of 2.5%. And, regardless of the carrying amount of the obligation. Now, if the title is only worth 90 million euros, it instantly suffer a loss of 10%. The balance sheet of banks is affected. For secure, regulators require them to strengthen their capital.

When you secure a quick cash personal loan, make certain to pay it back on time. Loan pay back time is just as important to consider as when (and how much) to borrow.

On Tuesday, the Higher Audiovisual Council (CSA) launched the call for applications for six new free DTT channels. Candidates submit their applications no later than January 3 next, they will be audited between 5 and 9 March and mid-March, CSA will appoint the selected files. The permits will be issued in May and channels will be launched in the fall for at least 25% of the population.

This is a great gift for viewers, but it's a puzzle dangerous for the TV market. With 25 free channels instead of 18 now, the whole landscape that will, once again upset. The Ministry of Culture no mistake. To limit the damage, he advocates the creation of channels with smaller economies than minigénéralistes who need to drain the advertising market heavily to live.

In its report on the future of TNT, Michel Boyon, the president of CSA, stressed that the advertising market is not extensible. This observation invites the CSA and the Rue de Valois to protect the large general-interest channels that have already been hard hit by the creation of DTT channels in 2005. In six years, these have already assumed 25% of the television audience and 12.5% ​​market pub. Today, however, only those projects that should be presented by Team TV, Screenrush, NextRadioTV (RMC Sport) or Equidia (PMU) are channels. All others are minigénéralistes. And propose TF1 TV Breizh, push M6 M6 Family WikiTV and Paris Première. Canal + continues to campaign for the free channel Canal 20 payday loans.

For its part, has already promised an NRJ TV Honey aimed at women and a chain TV Nostalgia for heritage programs.The CSA will decide whether looking for channels to anger the left or if historical actors assigns frequencies to minigénéralistes.

Specialists in the advertising market are reassured by any equation. "While 2011 will end positively for advertising, Régine note Tournier, expertise and purchasing director at Havas Media, there is a slowdown and we have no visibility into 2012. The arrival of new channels is likely to introduce more competition in the market and lower prices. "

"A market of mass media"

On the other hand, the expert noted, "it is not certain that the arrival of channels is a good thing because it will encourage the fragmentation of audiences.Strings that will fare best will be those backed by a large group to benefit from synergies. "

Another danger, if the number of free DTT channels increases, the pay packages of cable and satellite will lose their appeal. "The more free channels, said one expert, the less reason to subscribe to a pay offer. Especially since they are important channels of cable and satellite (TV Team, Equidia, Paris Première, Ed) which candidatent to DTT. "

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EADS multiplies acquisitions. The parent company of Airbus announced Monday that its subsidiary Astrium took possession, for 673 million euros, Vizada, a specialist in satellite services. She took over the participation of the fund Apax Partners.

Vizada, which employs over 700 people and has a turnover of 458 million euros, was born from the merger of satellite communications Norwegian Telenor and France Telecom.It has 200,000 users worldwide, among them "ships of the merchant marine, emergency response agencies, government and military units, media companies, providers of telecommunications services and Internet, as well as 'business aviation, military and civilian, "said EADS.

Supplier of the U.S. government in the airline industry, Vizada has received this year a contract with the U.S. General Service Administration to "ensure access to services for mobile satellite communications to government customers and military payday loan." German and French armies are also among its customers.EADS achieves its fourth acquisition since the beginning of the year and its biggest operation since the acquisition, for 2.75 billion euros in September 2006, the 20% of Britain's BAE Systems in the capital of Airbus .

Reduce its dependence on sales of Airbus

In late June, Eurocopter has completed the acquisition of Vector Aerospace Canada for 450 million euros. Last week, Airbus has purchased the American Metron Aviation, a service provider for air traffic control, for an undisclosed sum. He launched a bid in the amount of 348 million euros in the Danish Satair, a specialist in the supply of aircraft spare parts. "These acquisitions reinforce Astrium, Eurocopter and Airbus in services and in the U.S. market," said Boris Zaïtra, corporate vice president and director of mergers and acquisitions at EADS.

In the case of debt, time is a luxury that the United States as Europe can not afford. This is the message sent Tuesday by Christine Lagarde, director of the International Monetary Fund. Welcoming the plan against the crisis of the Greek debt presented Thursday by EU leaders, the French hoped "that these bold steps will be followed in the United States and that action in the fiscal area will occur as quickly as possible."

In Washington, "the clock is forever and you really find a solution," insisted Christine Lagarde. Democrats and Republicans can not agree on U.S. debt, then that must be addressed prior to August 2 the maximum amount that the state can borrow in the markets (the ceiling of the debt). Otherwise the U.S. will not reimburse investors.

"Having a default or a significant reduction in the rating assigned to the signing of the United States, an event would be very, very, very serious. Not for the U.S. only, but for the world economy in general, "said the leader of the IMF. In the longer term, the IMF has asked the United States Monday to hand over "the debt to a sustainable path." U.S. debt until recently was considered by investors as an investment "safe".

If it is proved otherwise, the consequences could be incalculable. The United States "can not default on their obligations," said John Boehner, a Republican official in Congress. "The jobs and savings of too many Americans (are) in."

Threat of 'turbulence'

Europe is no exception.After the summit on Thursday, the leaders of the euro area should continue their efforts, Christine Lagarde warned: "The plan was welcomed by financial markets, as evidenced by the stronger euro and lower spreads rates on bonds of the periphery. But the turmoil could easily reappear. For this reason it is essential that the commitments of the summit are implemented quickly. "

Problem: The plan must be submitted to national parliaments for approval. "This will be done in the coming weeks. This will not happen overnight because, as is often the case in many developed economies of the Northern Hemisphere, August is relatively calm. And parliaments are closed, "admitted the director of the IMF. But Europeans do not have the luxury of taking their time.I think there is an expectation that things should move forward and be implemented not only by the countries directly concerned but also by governments who, as I said, kept their promises. "

To help stem the debt crisis, the IMF disbursed $ 330 billion to date, also recalled Christine Lagarde. Given this fact, the IMF might have to seek new funds to its member countries, its director admitted: "In the not too distant future we will probably take an interest in this issue."

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After the immediate relief, the scrutiny. The decisions of the EU summit in distilled As the day of Thursday, had caused a real euphoria in the markets. The important thing was then to resist the further analysis which would not fail to deliver the observers. Result: the markets have continued to welcome a plan that went far beyond their expectations, even though Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Barclays, we regretted not getting an expansion in the size of EFSF (European financial stability).

Real financial thermometer, the CDS (credit default swap) of Greece – or the premium paid by investors seeking to insure against the default risk of Athens – had symbolized the tension alone: ​​this instrument has lost 500 points these hours to reach 1500 bps.As recently as Monday, July 18, he had earned in 2568 basis points. In this case, the ISDA – the professional body responsible for deciding whether to initiate hedges and therefore pay those who hold them – decided on Friday that the European level do not justify.

A first in the euro area

Conversely, the rating agency Fitch has confirmed that it would place Greece in "selective default". This penalty – provided from the time the private creditors were asked to contribute to the rescue of Greece – a first in the euro area. The default is "selective", only a portion of the loans in Greece are concerned. There will be temporary. Fitch says it will award the following further notes that Greece will consider reducing the weight of its debt.

Behind these technical quibbles lies a considerable challenge.Whether the 50 billion of impairment suffered by the financial sector to come to the aid of Greece are yes or no if a "unique and exceptional" as European leaders have hammered. These statements have not prevented Fitch stressed that the Greek case did constitute a "precedent", when Ireland and Portugal are far from out of the woods. "This means that Ireland and Portugal have eighteen months to put up their house in order, they will suffer further degradation of their rating," warns Gary Jenkins, head of research at Evolution.

Apart from Ireland and Portugal, the first priority was to stop the contagion to Spain and Italy. On this point, the efforts have paid off. The rates at which these two countries borrow on the markets have significantly relaxed this week.

This renewed confidence has yet to confirm."We see four risks in the plan," detailing the Societe Generale analysts. Get ahead of the national parliaments, first. Limit the duration and impact of selective default, then. Confirm a response rate of 90% of creditors to the plan – in this respect, the French banks said they would meet there. And, last but not least challenge: that Greece found a dynamic itself.

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Europe is gaining time, but did not extinguish the fire in Greece. Following a conference call Saturday, finance ministers of the euro area have given the green light to release "by July 15" 8.7 billion euros in loans that should add 3.3 billion paid out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This decision was expected after the adoption this week by the Greek Parliament of the austerity program imposed by his European creditors. "It (the decision) strengthens the international credibility of Greece", immediately congratulated the Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos.

As the new Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, to take office Tuesday, the organization welcomed the developments."We welcome the commitment of the Eurogroup to a funding strategy that ensures that the Greek economic program is fully insured," said the spokesman for the IMF, Caroline Atkinson. No details however were given about a possible date on which the Board could meet to release the funds.

Berlin puts pressure

If these 12 billion euros to Greece should avoid going bankrupt in the short term, it is not enough to save the country permanently and fully reassure the financial markets. For this, the country has called for a second bailout International 110 billion euros. Finance ministers of the euro zone have promised yesterday decisions "in the coming weeks." For its part, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, more prudent, spoke of an agreement by the fall only.Berlin looks indeed to be certain that Greece implement austerity measures quickly that the country has promised. "After the release of the fifth installment of the countries of the euro area and the IMF, the next step must be addressed decisively: the measures passed in Athens should be implemented quickly. Privatization, for example, must be launched without delay, "responded the German Minister of Finance. Response of Athens: the austerity plan of 28.4 billion euros will be implemented before mid-September.

Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain could knock on the door

These two months of rest should also help to advance on a second rescue plan 110 billion euros. Finance ministers of the euro area have not spoken on this subject last night.They expect to clarify the private sector, banks and other creditors, imposed by Berlin to a new plan to help decide. "The details and extent of the involvement of private and official sources of additional funding will be determined in the coming weeks," they said.

Time is running out: Ireland and Portugal may need a new international aid. As for Spain and Italy, both countries are under pressure from rating agencies. "The failure of European political leaders to resolve the crisis quickly and decisively hits the rest of the euro area," says Ben May, economist at Capital Economics. The United States pressed more in Europe to solve its debt problems to avoid a global impact."If Greece fell deeper into recession following the new austerity measures, it could reduce the willingness of governments to implement additional fiscal measures," says Ben May.

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The Center for Strategic Analysis (CAS) will publish tomorrow Tuesday an interesting note on employment and unemployment among youth. "After much reduced between 1995 and 2008, youth unemployment has not been more sensitive to the crisis in France than in the average OECD country," says the CAS.

The number of under 25 unemployed has increased by 4.3 points in France in 2008-2009 to 23.2%, against an increase of nearly 6 points in the OECD countries.Nevertheless, France still exceeds the three-point average of industrialized countries and is located "halfway between countries that have rates two to three times lower, as the Netherlands (7.8%) and Germany (8.3%) and those where they are approaching double the average, like Spain (43.1%) or the Baltics. "

If the best trained are best protected, the higher qualification of youth did not prevent their conditions of entry into active life to deteriorate. One third of 15-24 year olds have jobs of limited duration, against 11% of all employees. "There is no single answer to youth unemployment, otherwise we would have found it," insists Vincent Chriqui, head of the CAS.

No "youth minimum wage"

Former Plan Commissioner made four proposals in line with government policy no teletrek payday advance.He suggests "developing a wide range of alternative tools to schooling 'for 200,000 young" dropouts "listed by year: alternate pathway" second chance ", strengthened support … To further reduce the number of young people without qualifications, CAS argues that "the development of learning is more beneficial than in the past for training of secondary education." It should even be "a shared priority" prefects, regional councils, presidents or partners.

To reduce labor costs in the commercial sector – as France has not introduced, unlike other countries, a "youth minimum wage" – the CAS proposes to expand the number of assisted contracts in the private and make "a management tool and counter-cyclical support to young people most in need."The advisory body to the Prime Minister finally suggests to "enhance the experience of young people in the nonprofit sector by transforming a share of subsidized jobs in the public sector apprenticeships.

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Monday invited the Talk Orange-Le Figaro, Gilles Carrez unsurprisingly has announced that he would vote "no regrets" the end of the tax shield. "I have constantly warned against this scheme, said the rapporteur of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly. I made note after note to the candidate Nicolas Sarkozy during the election campaign. "For the UMP du Val-de-Marne," the tax cap was a bad answer to a bad tax that is the ISF.

"Political will to straighten the accounts"

Gilles Carrez is thus not unhappy "that we reform the ISF to make it finally acceptable and less confiscatory." He said this tax is "responsible for many of departures abroad" in recent decades. And proof of harm is that "all countries that have had one removed." This specialist public finances do not regret that reform is a development of the ISF."This tax is so symbolic that remove one year's presidential impossible," he admits, saying that such a decision can be made "in the beginning of term instant payday loan lenders."

Gilles Carrez also found "possible" return to a balance of public finances – is "a deficit that finances investment only and not as now operating expenditure – within five years. This golden rule, which is also part of the draft supplementary budget presented by the Cabinet tomorrow, "foster the political will to rectify the accounts," he said.

The UMP has finally given its support to Laurent Wauquiez has triggered a controversy by proposing that the RSA recipients do five hours of community service per week. "We can not exclude that the community requires a consideration," he acknowledged.I wonder if they did not commit a mistake by grouping the RSA who does not work at all and that we will promote by aid. He who is temporarily deprived of employment should be encouraged to return to work. "

"Showcase in progress": the furniture is brand new still empty, but they already enthroned in the midst of the post office. Ready for mobile phones to be sold by the group on 23 May.

By embarking on the phone after so many others, with its offer Mobile Post, the group plays big. It is 2.4 million subscribers by 2016. But the battle looks tough because the market is already very competitive, so that all operators are preparing for the arrival of Free early 2012.

La Poste, which is expected on very competitive rates, will have to hit hard to differentiate, while operators have all forms of small entry-level starting around 7 euros a month, and they have put in place, under the leadership of government, "social tariffs" with 40 minutes and 40 SMS communications for less than 10 euros a month."The Post has dangled an attractive price. We will be vigilant that they are really, "says one at Bercy, worried that competition benefits the consumer directly.

This launch is also a gamble in terms of management. Because after asking the factors to help the transition to DTT, it will have to train postmen to sell mobile phone. Not so simple!

At two months of the meeting of Agriculture Ministers of the G20, Paris, France is stepping up efforts to convince its partners, including emerging markets, the need to control the prices of raw materials. The fight against the volatility of agricultural prices is one of three priorities for the French presidency of the G20, with the reform of the international monetary system and taxation of financial transactions.

Bruno Le Maire has made two key visits this week to Moscow and Brasilia. The ministerial meeting in Brazil was "a success," says one in the entourage of Le Maire. The Brazilians were very reserved in respect of the French proposals now seem reassured. "Bruno The Mayor has made clear that the control would only financial manipulation in the market for agricultural products," said the Brazilian minister, Wagner Rossi."We were surprised to see Brazil, strongly supports greater regulation in the markets," said a member of the French delegation.

Transparency of financial markets is one of three priority reforms to limit price volatility, according to experts from FAO, OECD and World Bank, who wrote a report on the issue for the French presidency of the G20 .

Very sensitive because it addresses the controversial role of speculation in rising commodity prices, this subject has been left to finance ministers of the G20. It will be discussed next week in Washington.

Unilateral decision

In Moscow, the ministerial discussions focused on another sensitive issue: the unilateral restrictions on exports.August 5, Moscow's decision to freeze its wheat exports to the fires and drought caused exceptional sharp rise in prices on international markets. This reaction is not concerted, which goes against the principles of free trade the WTO has been criticized by Paris. France hopes in the G20, impose a mandatory consultation ahead of this kind of decision in order to prevent abuse, and to take measures to protect poorer countries against rising prices.

On this issue, Bruno Le Maire is sparing no effort, he will have met four times his Russian colleague, Elena Skrynnik. "Moscow agrees on the principle of cooperation in upstream, on the protection of the most vulnerable," says a close case.France, which claims to have joined Brazil and Russia to its cause, must now convince another heavyweight G20: China, world's largest producer of wheat. "Beijing is far from conducive to transparency on stocks," says Michael Porter, Director of Agritel, risk expert on agricultural markets.

In its global offensive, France has discovered another restive country to its arguments: Australia, great agricultural power. "Australia is the country most recalcitrant!" Said a negotiator. "For them, the volatility of agricultural prices is a non-issue! Bruno Le Maire there will soon travel to Sydney to achieve its purpose? Nothing is excluded …

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