Live News

Lefigaro.fr – The stock market crash experienced by the materials last week he requires investors to be more responsive?

Fabrice Cousté – We have entered a period in which electronic exchanges and automated to make faster and faster. This is not about to stop! Uncertainties about the euro and oil prices have created an appetite among investors for increasing trading currencies and commodities with a time horizon ranging from several days to a few seconds! Since early May, some hedge funds that had long positions in commodities and the euro came out massively causing a sharp drop of nearly ten dollars on oil. Meanwhile, the euro flirted with the $ 1.50 fell below the $ 1.45 and is now heading towards $ 1.40.These movements in raw materials could weigh on the CAC 40, including through lower oil stocks: Total, Technip and Vallourec.

What do you attribute the return of the volumes traded on the CAC 40 (six billion euro traded on average over the first two sessions of the week)?

These sessions illustrate the volatility of financial markets. And when I talk about financial markets, I do not take into account only the Paris stock exchange but also the Forex (currency market), which weighs 1000 times more than the CAC 40 (4000 billion dollars are traded daily on forex).

Is it out of raw materials?

The sharp drop ('sell off') shows that we are witnessing a situation of bubble that formed on certain assets (gold, silver, oil) and deflates even faster than many of the positions initiated at purchases were intended to hedge against a weakening greenback pronounced. This one covers the force, these positions are unwound or reversed, thus amplifying the plunge.

I would say that the recent plunge in oil is only a pause in a structural increase. I remain convinced that indeed the global economy is experiencing recovery, albeit slow, raw materials remain structurally high levels. Indeed, the double-digit growth in emerging countries may decrease, but these countries are on track for rapid expansion that will require more and more natural resources.We need to get used to the prospect of a sustained oil price at $ 100 a barrel and more in years to come. This new environment should promote market recovery for companies in "green business" (new energy, recycling, energy conservation).

What impact on portfolio management?

The sector rotations will be more frequent. In the short term we will also know where you have a new focus on defensive stocks such as telecoms and technology sectors expanding. As for values ​​that have real pricing power (the ability of firms to impose higher prices, Ed), the ability to pass the rising cost of raw materials in their products are preferable. This is where the champions of luxury such as LVMH and PPR values ​​but also with strong brands such as Danone and Essilor.

Conversely, investors should stay away from utilities and automobiles. Regarding the oil companies, I am negative court term and long-term positive. Good surprises are also possible for banks, but these are values ​​highly speculative and totally dependent on how the policies will manage the debt crisis of the Greek.

A more reactive wrong does not accentuate the lack of interest for individual stocks, considered a distribution medium or long term?

Today, it is true that individuals invest more to take risks but to protect themselves. They therefore turn to the massive gold or stone. The market environment has changed. It is uncertain therefore more complex to understand.But those who still believe the shares are able to adapt their trading, also passing through alternative platforms that will become the next referent of finance or by taking advantage of new business tools ("stop loss" orders intelligent programming strategy) that are available to them. Although the regulator wants to break the speed of trades and trading high frequency counter, it can not prevent the development of these platforms.

The Cac 40 barely exceed the 4200 points for three months. How do you explain it?

The revival of the Cac 40 depends mainly comeback banking shares. In view of its excellent results, BNP Paribas can return to a range between 70 and 75 euros and Societe Generale between 60 and 65 euros by the end of the year.The CAC 40 should not drop below 3800 points for corporate earnings in the first quarter are still excellent. Conversely, as the uncertainties regarding the recovery of Greece will not be lifted, the CAC 40 may not exceed the 4200 points.

Monday invited the Talk Orange-Le Figaro, Gilles Carrez unsurprisingly has announced that he would vote "no regrets" the end of the tax shield. "I have constantly warned against this scheme, said the rapporteur of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly. I made note after note to the candidate Nicolas Sarkozy during the election campaign. "For the UMP du Val-de-Marne," the tax cap was a bad answer to a bad tax that is the ISF.

"Political will to straighten the accounts"

Gilles Carrez is thus not unhappy "that we reform the ISF to make it finally acceptable and less confiscatory." He said this tax is "responsible for many of departures abroad" in recent decades. And proof of harm is that "all countries that have had one removed." This specialist public finances do not regret that reform is a development of the ISF."This tax is so symbolic that remove one year's presidential impossible," he admits, saying that such a decision can be made "in the beginning of term instant payday loan lenders."

Gilles Carrez also found "possible" return to a balance of public finances – is "a deficit that finances investment only and not as now operating expenditure – within five years. This golden rule, which is also part of the draft supplementary budget presented by the Cabinet tomorrow, "foster the political will to rectify the accounts," he said.

The UMP has finally given its support to Laurent Wauquiez has triggered a controversy by proposing that the RSA recipients do five hours of community service per week. "We can not exclude that the community requires a consideration," he acknowledged.I wonder if they did not commit a mistake by grouping the RSA who does not work at all and that we will promote by aid. He who is temporarily deprived of employment should be encouraged to return to work. "

At two months of the meeting of Agriculture Ministers of the G20, Paris, France is stepping up efforts to convince its partners, including emerging markets, the need to control the prices of raw materials. The fight against the volatility of agricultural prices is one of three priorities for the French presidency of the G20, with the reform of the international monetary system and taxation of financial transactions.

Bruno Le Maire has made two key visits this week to Moscow and Brasilia. The ministerial meeting in Brazil was "a success," says one in the entourage of Le Maire. The Brazilians were very reserved in respect of the French proposals now seem reassured. "Bruno The Mayor has made clear that the control would only financial manipulation in the market for agricultural products," said the Brazilian minister, Wagner Rossi."We were surprised to see Brazil, strongly supports greater regulation in the markets," said a member of the French delegation.

Transparency of financial markets is one of three priority reforms to limit price volatility, according to experts from FAO, OECD and World Bank, who wrote a report on the issue for the French presidency of the G20 .

Very sensitive because it addresses the controversial role of speculation in rising commodity prices, this subject has been left to finance ministers of the G20. It will be discussed next week in Washington.

Unilateral decision

In Moscow, the ministerial discussions focused on another sensitive issue: the unilateral restrictions on exports.August 5, Moscow's decision to freeze its wheat exports to the fires and drought caused exceptional sharp rise in prices on international markets. This reaction is not concerted, which goes against the principles of free trade the WTO has been criticized by Paris. France hopes in the G20, impose a mandatory consultation ahead of this kind of decision in order to prevent abuse, and to take measures to protect poorer countries against rising prices.

On this issue, Bruno Le Maire is sparing no effort, he will have met four times his Russian colleague, Elena Skrynnik. "Moscow agrees on the principle of cooperation in upstream, on the protection of the most vulnerable," says a close case.France, which claims to have joined Brazil and Russia to its cause, must now convince another heavyweight G20: China, world's largest producer of wheat. "Beijing is far from conducive to transparency on stocks," says Michael Porter, Director of Agritel, risk expert on agricultural markets.

In its global offensive, France has discovered another restive country to its arguments: Australia, great agricultural power. "Australia is the country most recalcitrant!" Said a negotiator. "For them, the volatility of agricultural prices is a non-issue! Bruno Le Maire there will soon travel to Sydney to achieve its purpose? Nothing is excluded …

ALSO READ:

"G20: Track antivolatilité agricultural prices

Slowly, the Reformers made their place in the station. Certainly, the CGT union is the first with 37.3% of votes cast at the last workplace elections, but the organization suffered another setback. She had obtained 40% of the vote in 2009, during the recent workplace elections.

30% for the reformist pole

Reform said the pole winner in this election. The National Union of Autonomous Trade Unions (UNSA-Cheminots) harvest of votes and 21.4% (against 18.05% in 2009) and the French Democratic Confederation of Labour (CFDT) 13.7% (against 11.59% in 2009). Together, the two unions represent 30% of voters, allowing them to sign agreements without the support of another organization.The score of SUD-Rail also remains stable at 17.3%.

Thierry Nier, federal secretary of the CGT, the organization is "confirmed in its position as the leading trade union organization at the station" and retains "a key position," he told AFP online payday loans. The "slight decrease" of the CGT, which is "far from being dramatic," partly due to the fact that participation has reached less than 75%. According to him, 40,000 railway workers were not expressed, and some chose to turn "towards more consensual organizations.

TF (8.58% of votes), CFTC (1.03%) and CFE-CGC (0.42%) have, for their part, not surpassed the 10%. they are therefore not considered representative.

ALSO READ:

"Elections to the SNCF: CGT is to retain its leadership

"The CGT sole command of the SNCF

It's the domino effect. Twelve days after the earthquake that hit Japan, manufacturers of electronic goods continue to feel the shock wave. On Tuesday, Sony announced the suspension of production in five of its factories, which were not affected by the earthquake or tsunami. But they are now facing power cuts, shortages of components or raw materials.

Laurent Roussel, CEO of Panasonic France, announced that four Japanese factories in the group had stopped their production. "Our sites themselves have suffered very little damage, but the infrastructure does not work anymore," says Laurent Roussel. A situation similar to that known by Sharp. "Some of our plants are occasionally arrested, because of power cuts. Transport is also affected.Priority is given to people and help, "says Patrick Chardin, the CEO of Sharp France.

From last week, Toshiba had suspended part of its production, not to weigh on consumption of electricity. Under these conditions, no one will risk a prediction on the consequences of such interruptions to production. While large groups have a clear picture of damage to their own plants, they lack information on their suppliers. Last dreaded effect: a collapse in domestic demand. "The Japanese manufacturers are also very powerful in their domestic market online payday advance. If domestic consumption were to fall, it would be a major blow, "said Patrick Chardin. To complicate matters, the Japanese groups close their financial year to 31 March.The proximity of maturity contributes to a more prudent.

International impact

Despite Japan's importance in the global electronics production – Archipelago weighs 20% of LCD or 16% of memories – nothing to suggest that Europe will be affected by a shortage of TVs or computers. Most of these products are transported by boat, which involves traveling time of around five to six weeks. For now, manufacturers believe that it is still possible to make up for delays in shipping their products by air. With consequent higher prices.

"The worst disaster that exports would fall. This would have the effect of a second earthquake in Japan, "warns Lawrence Roussel, who is most concerned about rumors of possible radiation problems of products. "Nothing is further from the truth, he says.Especially since the products currently on the shelf have left Japan there are more than a month! "Nevertheless, some manufacturers have already put in place procedures to control the output string to reassure their customers.

ALSO READ:

The NYSE will start Thursday's meeting in sharp rebound, while Japanese engineers are trying everything possible to cool the reactors at Fukushima and avoid a major nuclear disaster. The Dow Jones climbed 1.09% to 11,738 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advancing 1.33% respectively to 1274 points and 1.40% points to 2653 points.

Thursday's meeting, however, promises once again to be febrile given the uncertainties surrounding the nuclear disaster in the archipelago. Wednesday on Wall Street, the Dow Jones dropped 2.04% to 11,613.3 points and ended at its lowest since Dec. 31.

The VIX volatility index, also called "fear index," jumped over 20% Wednesday and flew more than 45% since the beginning of the week.And according to analysts at PFG Best "it is not impossible that the Vix found record levels at the height of the financial crisis, the index could well triple.

In Tokyo on Thursday, the Nikkei closed down 1.44% moderate, affected by the surge in the yen and suspended the efforts of Japanese technicians near the nuclear power plant in Fukushima. For the first time since the nuclear crisis, the Japanese army helicopters dumped in the morning about 30 000 liters of water reactors 3 and 4 of the plant. The results of this operation are not yet known.Moreover, to support the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan injected 6,000 billion yen (about 54 billion euros) Thursday on the money market, bringing to 34,000 billion yen, its total contribution since Monday.

Inflation at the highest

On the currency markets, the euro continued its rebound against the dollar on Thursday, while the yen was changing to levels not seen since the Second World War against the greenback, buoyed by speculation of remittances in Japan following the devastating earthquake on Friday. 111H00 to Paris, the euro bought 1.4053 dollars against 1.3906 late Wednesday, its highest in four months.

On the macroeconomic front, the meeting was punctuated by the publication of numerous U.S. indicators.The weekly jobless claims were initially declined more than expected in the United States during the week to March 12, at 385 000 401 000 cons (revised) the previous week, said Thursday the Labor Department.

Higher oil prices is being felt in the United States on consumer prices, which have experienced in February their largest increase since June 2009, according to figures released Thursday by the Washington Department of Labor faxless pay day loans.

The industrial production fell unexpectedly in February cons, largely due to mild temperatures that have weighed on the sector of services to communities, according to official statistics released Thursday.According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, production fell 0.1% after an increase of 0.3% (revised from -0.1%) in January.

Guess and FedEX published

The values ​​listed after the close Fifth Third Bancorp has repurchased $ 280 million contract warrant issued to U.S. Treasury for the bailout of banks.

The mail group FedEx (4.91% to 89.47 U.S. dollars) Thursday raised its forecast for revenue and margin for the current quarter and next, an announcement that pushed its way in the exchange pre-market trading. "We expect a continued positive trend increases turnover and margins in the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2012," said Alan Graf, chief financial officer.

Guess (-9.07% to 39.89 dollars) posted net earnings rose to $ 105.4 million, or $ 1.11 per share in the fourth quarter ended Jan. 29, against $ 87.9 million , or 93 cents per share last year.

By contrast, Qualcomm (4.36% to 52.70 dollars) said its deliveries should not be affected by events in Japan, noting that the supply and production within the company was sufficiently diversified in this such situations.

Renaissance Re Holdings (-1.77% to 62.77 dollars) said the floods in Australia will have a negative impact 30 to $ 190 million on first quarter results 2011.The earthquake in Japan should also have a significant effect on the accounts.

For his part, Rollins (1.01% at 19.01 dollars) has announced that its subsidiary, Orkin had opened a new office in Shanghai.

Also note, Apple (2.55% to 338.42 dollars) lost 4.5% Wednesday after an analyst from JMP Securities has degraded the value of the first degradation by an analyst since October. 90% of analysts remains to buy Apple. But, clearly, the group's growth could be affected by events in Japan and greater competition, especially in the segment of mobile phones, experts say Aurel BGC.

ON Semiconductor announced that its turnover in the first quarter 2011 could be affected by the situation in Japan at 2% to 4% of its turnover, due to disruptions in logistics.

The sensational espionage case that shook Renault continued on Sunday to "deflate". One of the three security officials of the automotive group into custody-to-view this weekend, Dominique Gevrey, was indicted for "organized fraud" and imprisoned following the dismissal last January three group executives for espionage.

Two other officials cautioned to view this weekend, including the director of security and close to Carlos Ghosn, Remi Pagni, however, were released Sunday morning, without any charges being brought against them.

The two frameworks safety first taken into custody-to-view, and Marc Dominique Gevrey Tixador, both authors of the report which led to the dismissal of three employees, have so far refused to reveal the name of the informant the source of accusations of espionage.By the reckoning of Renault's lawyer Wednesday to a microphone Europe, the automotive group has made "in the order of 250,000 euros" in this anonymous informant, through an intermediary agent of a private intelligence to collect data that led to three dismissals.

Renault claims a "manipulation"

Renault claims not to know either the name of that source, and have asked the two security officials, "who are only to know, to deliver his name and address to the investigators," said Renault's lawyer no fax pay day loan.This same source who gave Renault numbers of three bank accounts which was based on the automotive group to accuse the three executives have coined strategic information on the program of Renault's electric vehicles.

However, investigators of the Central Directorate of Internal Intelligence (DCRI) claimed last week they had found "no evidence of bank accounts" on behalf of these employees, nor "any evidence of espionage." As a defense, Renault now evokes the idea of ​​a "manipulation". In an interview with Le Figaro, the number two carmaker, Patrick Pelata, said that if this hypothesis was confirmed, "Renault will be attentive to repair any injustice."He also designated himself as a scapegoat, saying the group will draw all the consequences of this case until the highest level of business is to say to me ".

ALSO READ:

"INTERVIEW – Patrick Pelata," I will draw all the consequences "

"Renault has confirmed having paid its informant

The maker of Smirnoff vodka and Guinness beer is poised to become the specialist of Turkish raki. The British giant Diageo puts his hand on Içki Mey, the leading Turkish spirits, after paying 1.5 billion euros from TPG Capital and Actera.

This group, who performed last year a turnover of 355.6 million euros, controls 80% market raki, the national famous alcohol with anise, and 65% of that of vodka. By seizing Mey Içki he coveted for several months, Diageo strengthens the distribution of its own brands in the Turkish market where it previously occupied fourth place with 4% market share of spirits, to Pernod Ricard (3% ).

"Turkey is an attractive market for Diageo and developed with strong growth in gross domestic product, says the CEO of Diageo, Paul Walsh.The acquisition of Mey Içki improves our position in the spirits market with high growth. " A market, boosted by the emergence of the Turkish middle class, which is still dominated by raki and alcohol cheap.

Rebalancing strategy

After several years of strong volume growth, they should nevertheless settle for 2015. "Diageo is betting on the transfer of consumption to international brands as they become more accessible," says Jeremy Cunnington, senior analyst at Euromonitor. The various taxes, which penalize hitherto imported international brands, should gradually decline by 2018. Diageo hopes to take full advantage with its broad portfolio of brands.

The acquisition of Mey Içki also part of a rebalancing strategy in emerging countries.During its last fiscal year (2009-2010), 67% of the volumes still came from the United States and Western Europe. It is precisely in Europe – particularly Greece, Ireland and Spain, where sales fell 13% in the first six months of fiscal year 2010-2011 – the slowdown has been most marked. "While growth in sales of Pernod Ricard was twice that of Diageo's first half is due to the lack of presence of the latter in emerging countries, China and India in mind," says Jeremy Cunnington.

Diageo, who had preferred to leave India after the Asian crisis in 1998 gave way to Pernod Ricard, which now owns 8% of the market. Diageo is now trying to regain a foothold in the region.He has just returned to 24% stake in the spirits of the Vietnamese leader (Halico) after taking control late last year of a heavyweight Chinese (Quanxing). China will become this year … second country, ahead of France, Pernod Ricard.

ALSO READ:

The results from Pernod Ricard by emerging countries

Jacob Wood, born in Shanghai 60 years ago, built a small industrial empire in Nigeria. Step by step, China is expanding its grip on Africa. (Paolo Woods)

New record for the food price index of the FAO. Each month the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) measures changes in prices of a basket of 55 products including cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar …

For the month of December, this index performed worldwide stood at 214.7 points, up 4.22%. It is now above its previous record of 213.5 points in June 2008, the year of riots in several developing countries. "Prices were boosted by higher prices for sugar, cereals and oilseeds," said Abdolreza Abbassian, economist at FAO.

In detail, the biggest increase oilseeds, especially palm oil and rapeseed. Their index has climbed 7.5% to 263.0 points last month. The sugar price index soared more than 6%.An increase in the same order as that which affected the grain. Their index rose 237.6 points, its highest level since August 2008.

Buyers in Asia

But what most worries the FAO, is the duration of the phenomenon. "This is the sixth consecutive month that increases our index, notes Abdolreza Abbassian. However, unlike 2008, oil prices are much lower and crops have been sufficient in many countries, such as Central Africa and East, "added the economist payday loans no teletrack. In Tanzania, for example, maize production is largely self-sufficient. In Niger, the country posting the best grain harvest last twenty years.

However, if this phenomenon continues in the next two to three months ahead, it could have inflationary effects and create tensions among people in poor countries. And nothing suggests the next stop of this upward spiral.Demand continues to grow. Despite the 245 euros per tonne of wheat today, there are still buyers in Asia, the Middle East or North Africa. While the offer on cereals is particularly tense. "There are six times more climate events than fifty years ago," says Michel Portier, director of consulting firm specializing Agritel. Floods in Australia, the drought in Argentina and the heatwave in Russia testify. "This creates an extreme market stress," says Olivier Duval, agricultural supply and demand. Contrary to what one might think, farmers, especially farmers, are not at the party. The president of the FNSEA, Xavier Beulin, expects a first half of 2011 "very difficult" because of price volatility.