Finland threatens plan for aid to Greece
Greece seriously concerned about new markets. First because of its new economic forecast alarming: the finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, admitted yesterday that the austerity plan would cause a recession than expected, with a decline in GDP is now estimated at 4.5% " at least "in 2011 against 3.8% prior.
But mainly because the second plan with 158.6 billion euros, concocted by the Heads of State on July 21 and has yet to be ratified by all members of the euro area, has been seriously shaken by Finland.
Helsinki this week announced it has signed a bilateral agreement with Athens where, in exchange for his participation in the bailout, Greece to collateral ("Collateral") to Finland. This sum, which some analysts valued at 1 billion euros would be invested by Finland in risk-free assets.Interest earned will, in the end, to cover the amount loaned in the rescue plan. In other words, the Finnish government has made pledges to ensure against any risk of default of Greece.
Two-tier system
Technical in appearance, this agreement could have an impact politically devastating. Although this is a bilateral agreement, "Member States of the zone will validate this discussion between Finland and Greece," said a spokesman for the Commission, Amadeu Altafaj, ensuring that " Negotiations are already underway. "
But in Brussels, it does not hide his concern. If it is definitely validated the agreement between Finland and Greece could open a Pandora's box by allowing other countries to step into the breach. Austria, Slovakia and Slovenia are already tempted to do the same."We believe this agreement will exacerbate the problems of Greece and did not fall," warned yesterday the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. He said the solution is equivalent in effect to "resume direct" the money lent. However, the Dutch Prime Minister said that if the Finns get this guarantee, it should apply to all countries in the euro area quick cash.
Therein lies the problem. By creating a two-tier system, the agreement undermines the solidarity displayed by the leaders of the euro area on July 21. "The participation of Finland has been canceled," said one EU source, deploring an arrangement going "against the spirit of the agreement" for Seventeen.
Difficult, however, to reverse, the source added.Helsinki is indeed required to deal with the nationalist party of the True Finns since their breakthrough in the last legislative elections and their reluctance to come to the rescue baskets drilled in the euro area.
Markets are not fooled
Under the pressure of Finland, the Heads of State of Seventeen had included a short clause in their agreement of July 21, stating that "where appropriate, a security agreement will be established to cover the risk arising, for Member States of the euro area, the guarantees they have provided to EFSF. " The rhetoric is vague and leaves open to interpretation. Yesterday in Brussels, experts from the ministries of finance in the euro area came together to floor on the issue.
For the Commission, this development is not a surprise, and he emphasizes the urgency of ratifying the agreement of July 21.José Manuel Barroso had written to heads of state of the euro area from August 3 to ask them to speed up the timetable, and thus "avoid introducing excessive stress in terms of conditions or additional collateral." We understand better the rush now.
Athens wanted reassurance yesterday, indicating he had entered into negotiations with a pledge of Helsinki. But financial markets are not fooled: "If all countries in the euro area, each requiring a Trust Agreement, this will restrict all the help that will actually be available for Greece," say economists at Barclays Capital. This would imply de facto establishment of an additional third envelope.
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