Never a newly elected president will have faced a complex situation on the unemployment front. It goes back no less than thirteen years ago to find indicators also deteriorated. The unemployment rate is nearly 10% again of the workforce, nearly one in four is unemployed, the long-term unemployed (unemployed for more than a year) adjoining 40% of registered employment center and length of unemployment has jumped nearly 20% since the crisis began, to 464 days.

Main reason: while the labor force grows, France does not create enough jobs. In contrast, the number of available positions in the economy has shrunk by 200,000 even in the last five years, a first in the Fifth Republic.

The crisis is obviously much. Nevertheless, not a head of state had signed a mandate with a negative balance. Even François Mitterrand, whose first seven were deadly with the disappearance of entire job in the steel and textiles, the odometer showed 56,300 designs in 1988.

Francois Hollande, who "give a year" to reverse the unemployment curve, in any case will be hard pressed to meet its commitment without a boost – very speculative at this stage – growth. According to the latest available forecasts of Unedic (UI), the number of job seekers expected to grow by 214,000 this year – and so cheerfully exceed the symbolic threshold of 3 million unemployed registered at employment center Class A – and the number of jobs fall by 123,000 merchants payday advance low fees.

"The year 2013, however, should be better on the employment front, predicts the new tenant of the Elysee, by improving the international situation, but also with our first steps." … ….. 100,000 jobs for the future

Among them, is a classic: the "social treatment" of unemployment. In other words, subsidized jobs. The next few weeks, 100,000 "jobs of the future" must be created in neighborhoods (50,000 more will follow on the remainder of the quinquennium). This is a version of "makeover" of jobs for young Martine Aubry: odd jobs for five years in associations or local authorities, publicly funded.

Francois Hollande also intends to create 500,000 contracts generation during his tenure. The idea, intellectually attractive but criticized for its windfall, is to link the hiring of a youth to remain in the employment of a senior until he can retire at full rate, both jobs are exempt from charges.  

The president-elect has also promised to strengthen the means to improve employment center to help the unemployed and plan to launch a green renovation of housing could create tens of thousands of jobs.

Finally, to stop the "stock layoffs," he intends to make it more expensive, give employees new ways to challenge them in court and force the relocation of businesses dedicated to repaying public aid.

]]> http://wtwoodsoncrew.org/a-year-to-reverse-the-unemployment-curve/feed/ 0 http://wtwoodsoncrew.org/gel-fnsea-requires-flexibility-on-aid/ http://wtwoodsoncrew.org/gel-fnsea-requires-flexibility-on-aid/#comments Thu, 26 Apr 2012 02:00:11 +0000 admin http://wtwoodsoncrew.org/gel-fnsea-requires-flexibility-on-aid/  

The specter of drought away with the recent rains. But the winter freeze damage to crops are more than expected as and as spring advances. "That damage is exceptionally large, Xavier Beulin regrets, FNSEA President. In total 600,000 hectares of wheat, canola and barley were destroyed by the cold wave of February. "

In a letter to the Minister of Agriculture, FNSEA asks Bruno Le Maire to trigger the emergency procedure in Europe. It provides "the inclusion of force majeure" as "a serious natural disaster affecting a major agricultural area of ​​operation", so that farmers continue to receive their aid.

The green light from Brussels

Payment of these grants is linked to European compliance by the operator of a number of criteria, including stick to crop type notified in advance. This "rotation" is defined in the declaration CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) that meet the farmers every year in May for the crops they will do next season. These conditions are required to receive direct payments. Other aid, indirect, are related to the implementation of certain agri-environmental standards guaranteed unsecured personal loan. The leaders of the FNSEA have already given the green light from Brussels. They now expect the French transposition.

Activation of this procedure will allow farmers, especially those in the north-eastern France, the winter freeze victims, not to be penalized twice: not only by the lower yield of spring planting, but also by a reduction in aid European sanctioning non-compliance of the crop rotation in their declaration CAP. Finally, the recognition of this act of God must allow an advance on anticipated aid on October 16, instead of early December.

Private insurance side, the amount of compensation that will be paid, should amount to some 70 million euros. But all farmers are far from having signed a contract to hedge. Finally, a new wave of freezing took place last week but it has affected this time departments of the central region, penalizing the orchards and vineyards.

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Francois Hollande said today he hoped the French savings could be more "mobilized" to fund a portion of the debt, provided that the loan terms are more favorable for the country.

"I have an idea that the savings of French, which is very high (17% of our revenues are spared), can be mobilized for industry, housing and also for debt" , he said, asked about this during the "Grand Journal" on Canal +. His speech was recorded earlier in the day, due to the evening meeting in Bordeaux. "So that, the more you borrow from the French, the less you borrow from the markets," he said.

Run government bonds

When asked, "will launch on government bonds to individuals?", He replied: "I think about it. It already exists. What was formerly called T-bills, large bonds. The more we borrow in our own markets with the savings of French, it is less dependent on investment funds credit report. "" You will do it more consistently? "He replied," More systematic, yes. "….. …

Asked about the fact whether he had decided, he said: "Yes, actually. Then you have to see the conditions. It has to be a rate that is not greater than the market. Not worth paying a debt even more expensive if purchased by the French. "

In June 2009, President Nicolas Sarkozy had wanted to launch a new loan with the French. There were abandoned because the cost of a public offering would have been much higher than going market. The initiative of Nicolas Sarkozy was the first such operation in France since the famous "borrowing Balladur" in 1993.

At the end of 2011, 65.4% of negotiable government debt (in the form of securities) were held by non-residents, and 34.6% of French residents, according to data from the Agency France Trésor, which manages the French debt.

The confrontation was not as strong in the government of Angela Merkel since the controversial reform of the Bundeswehr. The center-right coalition headed by Chancellor, is torn for weeks about family policy. The bill providing for the introduction of a bonus for parents raising their children at home instead of placing them in a nursery or kindergarten, the Betreuungsgeld, causing great controversy across the Rhine. His critics believe that this will discourage women seeking to balance motherhood and work, when the German labor market already sorely lacking manpower.

The draft Betreuungsgeld is supported by the Conservative party leadership Merkel (CDU) and its Bavarian ally, the CSU, a stickler for traditional family values. In Bavaria, the tradition of the "three Ks" (Kinder, Küche, Kirche – "children, kitchen, church") continues to weigh heavily on women. The grant, which should be between 100 and 150 euros per child under 3's home, is supposed to be passed before the summer for implementation in January 2013. The Conservatives say they want to do and "evidence of heart." "The premium will be adopted and no concessions," warns Christine Haderthauer, Social Affairs Minister of Bavaria.

"Prime the stove"

But critics of the project are growing within the CDU and liberal allies in Merkel, who threaten to vote against it in the Bundestag. Philipp Rösler, deputy chancellor and patron of the Free Democrats, believes that "the objective of facilitating the reconciliation of family and professional life" is threatened by the grant. Unions and management are, in unison, standing against the wind project called the "premium in the kitchen." Dieter Hundt, president of BDA, the German employers, claiming "the abandonment of this project fundamentally harmful."

They see it as a barrier to women entering the labor market, a crucial issue for Germany. The premium would encourage mothers to stay home for years to keep their children, jeopardizing their chances of finding employment. The birth rate is already reflected in an acute shortage of manpower across the Rhine. Federation of Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) estimates the loss of 400,000 skilled workers annually. By 2030, the German working population is projected to decline by a quarter, he predicts. Immigration, but also working women are supposed to compensate. Difficulties in reconciling the birth of a child and continue to work stopping the fertility rate across the Rhine, with 1.3 children per woman is one of the lowest in the EU.

Opponents of the project also felt that the premium balance of harms children by delaying their adaptation to life in society, and the chances of the poor, whose awakening would be delayed.

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Negotiated discounts

Go Digital Edenred offers the possibility of expanding its range of services. In France, the electronic Ticket Restaurant, the former Accor Services will offer "specials flash" in stores. The principle: allow recipients to take advantage of its products negotiated discounts.

Measures François Hollande

The Institute has calculated the company eight measures developed by the Socialist candidate in the primary. First, the creation of 12,000 teaching positions per year, or 60,000 on the five-year term. This would cost 360 million euros per year, cumulative $ 1.8 billion in 2017. "These new posts create an implicit debt to the State, which undertakes to pay the pensions of these agents when they reach retirement age," says the Institute. The rating is saltier contracts for generation, exempting charges for three years as a young recruit companies while maintaining a senior job.This measure, the five-year cumulative, burden on public finances from 30.5 to 33 billion.

Another strong measure: the extension of the RSA under 25 years of activity without preconditions. The Enterprise Institute estimates that 120,000 to 200,000 young people could be affected, which would represent an annual cost of 528 to 876,000,000. With "a serious risk of imprisonment in a youth inactivity trap and a significant risk of fraud", the RSA representative "70% of the money diverted to family allowance." The Institute also estimated the cost of the massive development of renewable energy and reducing from 75 to 50% of the nuclear power generation by 2025. The bill? 10.9 billion a year.If this effort can reduce French imports of energy, it will be "on the other hand a negative effect on the purchasing power of households, through the rising cost of energy bills," warns the IDE.

The measures of the Socialist Party

Winner of the primary, Francois Hollande has not yet specified what action the program he intended to resume the PS no fax payday loans. The Institute has calculated the company in the main. The establishment of a public early childhood, a key measure of the project would cost between 4.5 and 5 billion per year. Half the budget of the justice! The bulk of the bill would come from the creation of 360,000 childcare places (3.8 billion per year … just by operating costs), welcoming children from 2 years to kindergarten cost him, by 720 million year.Much controversy as the assistant accused of favoring the creation of a study allowance for trainees is paradoxically less expensive. The Institute's $ 1.3 billion per year. The reason? This new allowance would replace other aid, and especially young people concerned only with limited resources. The bill would particularly high, however (9.6 billion per year), if the allowance was extended to all students, warns the Institute.

In a more traditional vein, the PS promotes the appreciation of the disabled adult allowance (AAH) and better care for older people, through the personal autonomy allowance (APA).According to the Institute, which takes the hypothesis of a revaluation of these allowances by 20% over five years, the AAH would cost $ 1.7 to $ 1.9 billion a year more, and the APA, 1, 5-2100000000.

Cell quantification of presidential projects, implemented by the Institute of the company, will now address the evaluation of the revenue side of the PS program. The question is whether Francois Hollande planned 30 billion of resources to balance its balance sheet. Last outstanding issue: the institute did not look back on the pension reform, suggested by the PS but never clearly put on the table by François Hollande. If this were the case, the encryption would rise much faster.

This good report is no longer appropriate. The IMF recognizes that since the "Great Recession" of 2008-2009, more than 200 million people are unemployed worldwide. A record.And three-quarters of the 30 million unemployed appeared in the "advanced" countries. However, the phenomenon looks durable.

The World Economic Outlook, which forecasts 2011-2012 were published last week, a special chapter devoted to "labor markets in advanced economies" and their structural changes. That is to take stock of two decades of globalization flawless. "Technological change and trade are as old as civilization," warns the Fund. But this time it's different. Strange coincidence, the revolution in information technology broke out when China, India and the countries of the former Soviet empire have joined the global market, which they were previously excluded.Overnight, shortly after 1990, the global employment has almost doubled to $ 3 billion.

The new communication technologies, including container transport, helped to internationalize production lines. One of the most eloquent symbol is provided by Apple's products are designed in California and assembled in China by Foxconn. Apple includes only about fifty thousand employees, researchers and managers, while the second largest global market capitalization, after Exxon. Less glamorous, Foxconn is working a million people.

25% of the United States would be "relocated"

These are the United States as a whole that work on this model, specializing in highly paid office jobs and relocating industrial production. The international division of labor has been entirely satisfactory in the first place."Until a decade ago, the effects of globalization on the distribution of wealth and jobs were safe," according to Professor Michael Spence, the IMF quotes extensively from the work instant credit report. The Nobel Prize in Economics notes that from 1990 to 2008, the U.S. managed to create 27 million jobs, keeping unemployment low. But 98% of these positions were offered by the sector working exclusively for the U.S. domestic market, including 10 million from government agencies and health. In contrast, industries whose products are exportable, "tradable", as the term of Michael Spence, did not increase their employment, except in highly skilled occupations. The biggest loser is the middle class, who was employed by the industry.According to Professor Alan Blinder, former number two of the Fed, 25% of all jobs in the United States would be "relocated".

This reconfiguration of the labor market was not prejudicial as the United States grew at a rate of 2.5% per annum. It became unbearable to the crisis, while the construction, public agencies and service companies hire less and less, even at low wages. The IMF notes that all the old industrialized countries are housed in the same boat. For his part, Michael Spence said the exception of Germany, "which has clearly failed to protect his employment in export industries when they were threatened." He noted also that the de-industrialization resulting in collective impoverishment.According to his calculations, the value added per employee increased from 72,000 to 80,000 dollars between 1990 and 2008 across the Atlantic in non-exporters, while it jumped from 79,000 to 120,000 dollars in industries working for the world market.

Globalization is certainly not a zero sum game in which emerging economies prosper at the expense of old nations. But within each country, certain social groups benefit while others suffer. IMF sees not only a factor of inequality, but also a drag on overall growth: by venting industries, which have much higher potential productivity service activities, the United States and Europe condemned to decline. Not wishing to embark on a highly political terrain, the IMF experts take shelter behind the recommendations of Professor Spence.They are twofold: win back lost industrial jobs by the middle class while practicing a specific social redistribution in favor of the victims of globalization clearly identified.

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But two days after the announcement of new austerity measures, the Greeks hardly accuse the coup.To get the sixth installment of the loan of 110 billion euros, or 8 billion euros, the government's attack this time directly to households: 20% discount on pensions in excess of 1200 euros months, 30,000 employees laid off and placed in lowering the threshold of non-taxation to 5000 euros per year.

For Thanassis, college teacher, the situation has become untenable. "For eighteen months, we wake up every morning with a knot in my stomach until the next sunset," says he. So far, Thanassis did not participate in strikes, but this time he is running out: "My wife earns only 400 euros per month and will now be imposed.As for me, in addition to the reduction in my income, it imposes upon me a new solidarity tax … I can not pay, they send me to jail, it will always be better than being homeless ".

Strikes cascade

Thursday, the streets of Athens were paralyzed by the strike of public transport and taxis, while teachers and municipal employees will do so instant payday loan. As a result, the Greeks had taken their cars, contributing to the formation of traffic jams. In turn, air traffic controllers stopped work four hours, forcing airlines to cancel or delay flights. And this is only the prelude to an end of September and October ahead particularly hot socially.

Even today, the whole country will again be largely private transport.From next Tuesday, taxi drivers planned a second strike of forty-eight hours, renewable. Before the nationwide general strike scheduled for 19 October, Greece is going to live on a chaotic rhythm.

For Pavlos Tzimas, a political analyst, the malaise is deeper. It may even, says he, to turn against the government: "This can not continue. Every three months, it was announced to the Greeks a new package of austerity measures. The government has overestimated its austerity program and has underestimated the weight of the recession. "

The business concern as well. "There is no compass, this government does not know where it goes," Constantinos Michalos rebels who heads the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Athens.

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The "wise men" are aware that the candidate will also appeal to the state, which supports the candidacy of Alexander Juniac, adviser to the Minister of Economy, Baroin instant personal loans guaranteed.Pierre-Henri Gourgeon is on the same line, but not Jean-Cyril Spinetta, Group Chairman, a supporter of the appointment of a "pro" for a business sector heckled by the TGV, the low-cost, companies of Gulf and Asian competition.

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Such a reform would be a way to go very smoothly on a system condemned by unions but emblematic of the early five-year term of Nicolas Sarkozy.It would also bring hundreds of millions of euros in state coffers – the contribution holiday costs more than three billion a year to Social Security – without too much strain on the purchasing power of employees. It is ultimately the only confidence that François Fillon was permitted. "It was not for him to test a range of measures," says one of his advisers. Most of the time, the Prime Minister has therefore merely listen to what his interlocutors have to say.

"Protecting Growth"

Jacques Voisin was the first to meet Sunday with the prime minister. The chairman of the CFTC asked François Fillon that the measures he is about to take are "consistent with the growth and equitable" and they have no "impact on employment and social minima ".Jean-Claude Mailly for its "push" two major points in his eyes: "the preservation of public services and the protection of collective action," such as tax benefits to the issuance of food stamps or the implementation of complementary health.

In his meeting, François Chérèque for his part stressed "the need to implement measures of social support to employees and businesses to avoid blockage of the economy." The leader of the CFDT has once again required the creation of an additional tax bracket for the highest income or the conditioning of exemptions from VAT and social security to the requirements on employment and wages.The Prime Minister, who undertook to study these proposals, agreed that it was "important to protect growth, small businesses and employment, and support the most disadvantaged," reports the CFDT, which "oppose any questioning of social benefits for savings."

After discussing the budgets of social security and local authorities, François Fillon has finally confirmed Laurence Parisot, the president of MEDEF, it would be "very attentive to SMEs and business conditions."