It is late. But, for once, it's not his fault. Whereas in Berlin Tuesday to 18 h 30, Francois Hollande has landed 45 to 19 h. Struck by lightning, the presidential plane was forced to return to land at Villacoublay.

As he arrives on the doorstep of the Chancellery, Angela Merkel is there to greet him. They exchange a handshake. No hug, as did Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007, destabilizing his interlocutor. A little stiff, President novice discovers the protocol: a hand gesture, the Chancellor guide when passing in review the troops. It seeks its mark next to it and lack of hustle on the red carpet.

Just invested as president, Francois Hollande, like its predecessor five years ago, was keen to stress the symbolic importance and challenge of the Franco-German dedicated to Angela Merkel's first visit as head of state. "I did not know her, even if his reputation had long since crossed the border," he said after a meeting of more than an hour before a working dinner.

The Chancellor had not wanted to meet the Socialist candidate in the campaign to mark its defiance vis-à-vis the renegotiation of the budgetary stability pact. The subject was included in the course of the game menu. "I said in the campaign, I repeat again today, I wanted to renegotiate the treaty to include a dimension of growth", said Francois Hollande.

Before his election, he threatened not to ratify the text if it was not amended to include a revival of European growth. Tuesday, he paved the way for a compromise: "The method that we have agreed is to put all ideas, all proposals on the table and then see what are the translations for legal format." Everything has opposed priori attached to the socialist revival and conservative buttressed by fiscal discipline. But, obviously, the head of state does not rob his partner immediately. "We have different approaches to achieve growth, but we will share our ideas to see what are the different ways to stimulate growth," replied the Chancellor. Francois Hollande evoked improving competitiveness and Eurobonds cash advance flexible payments. To reassure the Germans, he said he was concerned about the "seriousness of the budget." But, he said, "it's because I'm for serious budget I am for growth."

Time was not on Tuesday, the settlement of underlying problems that have accumulated. "This meeting was intended to know us better, build a relationship, establish a working method," said the French president. Among the burning questions, the crisis in Greece could not be avoided, in a context where it leaves the euro area is now considered. "The Greeks must know that we will come to them to enable them to secure their place" in the eurozone, Holland assured. "I agree that Greece must remain in the Euro Area", completed Merkel, hoping, for his part, "structural reforms".

Sentenced to agree

The Head of State and the Chancellor will meet on Friday at the G8 summit at Camp David, then, in the process, that of NATO, in Chicago. Above, both meet again May 23 for an informal summit of Heads of State and Government in Brussels European. And in late June, the European Council, "French and Germans will jointly present their ideas for growth in Europe," Merkel promised.

Despite their differences, the new couple Merkel Holland was sentenced to agree. At the edge of its mandate, the French president can not afford to fail on one of its most ambitious promises, the reorientation of the European Union. For his part, Chancellor, one year of law, is obliged to strengthen its position against an opposition Social Democrats who redoubles criticism against the policy of austerity. In the presidential entourage, it is noted that the electoral victory of the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia on Sunday, depriving Angela Merkel a majority in both Houses of Parliament

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If it is a voice that carried Washington to moderate the heat-regulating the political class, it is that Jamie Dimon. Basking in the solid background of his bank during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the CEO of JP Morgan had indeed become the "king" of risk control. And for four years, it is he who plays the role of informal spokesman of the profession when it comes to denounce the excesses or inconsistencies of new financial regulations.

This means that the trading loss of JP Morgan will cause shock waves far beyond the U.S. bank itself. Because the event takes place at the heart of a highly topical debate in the U.S. and Europe: that the application of the Volcker rule. This rule, named after former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, seeks to prohibit banks that collect deposits from households to perform speculative operations. It was incorporated into the enormous legislative package – the Dodd-Frank – pass Congress in 2010 and any revision of financial regulation.

Activity called "cover"

Prevent commercial banks from becoming casino, the idea is consensual. But the implementation creates endless debates. The Volcker rule bans the proprietary trading – made with the bank's own funds and not on behalf of clients – and the management of hedge funds low fee payday loans. The definition of proprietary trading is difficult, however, and all the lobbying power of Wall Street is deployed to make it as restrictive as possible.

In the coming days, no doubt the arguments will carry less! Because JP Morgan has accused its massive loss on an activity called "coverage" – supposed therefore limit the risks taken by the bank, the kind of jobs that financial institutions want to continue in the future and they refuse to qualify speculative activities

.

What happened to JP Morgan will undoubtedly also affect Europe. The Old Continent is currently considering adopting its own "Volcker rule". A group of experts work on the matter at the request of the European Commission. Francois Hollande and included in its program a law of separation of banking activities. Jamie Dimon is in spite of himself to bring water to his mill.

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The tone hardens in the conflict between marine companies between Corsica and the mainland. The strike called by the CGT Wednesday to demand the application of the same social laws to all shipping companies, including foreign competition, making these runs was renewed this Saturday. A decision that provoked the "anger" of the direction of SNCM (Société Nationale Corse Méditerranée), 66% subsidiary of Veolia Transdev. The South (ex-CMN) is also affected by the strike. The movement "is followed at 28% to SNCM, a little more to the CMN, but enough to prevent smuggling," said the leadership of SNCM.

The nine SNCM ships and the South (ex-CMN) assigned to services between Marseille, Nice and Corsica are therefore remained docked for the fourth consecutive day, some 10,000 passengers were affected since the conflict began. Many of them have changed their return by traveling on ships of the private company Corsica Ferries, Italian flag, which normally circulate. SNCM has expressed "outrage" because "this movement supposed to fight our competitors rather strengthen, beyond their expectations." Moreover, the director of the company for Corsica, Pierre-André Giovannini, expressed his "regret for the inconvenience to our customers, passengers and cargo carriers, and this new blow to the island economy." He said over the weekend of May 8 Bridge is "one of the most important pre-season tourist" for Corsica.

A bill filed by the PCF

The strikers will meet again Sunday morning to decide on the following movement. "So is the future of thousands of jobs in our profession," says the union in a statement. The strike comes as the ferries market suffered the turmoil of the crisis in recent years. Thus, since its passage in the private sector in 2006, SNCM has almost always been in the red. She was accused of operating losses of 15 million euros last year. Especially, the CGT sailors had already scored a major coup a year ago by stopping work for 47 days, never seen to SNCM. If it were to get bogged down, however this new strike is unlikely to change the trajectory of the group. The direction of the SNCM instead reiterated its "determination to rapidly modernize and evolve the company, in all areas." Last March, the chief executive, Marc Dufour, warned that SNCM would have to separate at least two car ferries and 800 employees in 1617.

In some election, this issue has naturally taken a political turn. Friday, a trade union delegation was received in Paris by representatives of different parties, including the national secretary of the PCF, Peter Lawrence. His party has tabled in the Senate on March 22 a bill to require all companies operating in France the first entry in register of ships, making them subject to French social laws. Sailors CGT also met the spokesman of the Socialist Party, Benoît Hamon, who is, according to the union, "clearly in favor of the adoption of this law," and a consultant Francois Hollande. In Marseille, finally, a delegation was received by the federation UMP.

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Athens: the message of the Communists. Five days of Greek elections of 6 May, several thousand people (18,000 according to police), especially communists showed around Athens and Thessaloniki, the second largest city, struck by a particularly harsh austerity policy. This statutory holiday, traditionally celebrated as the "day of general strike" in the private and the public gathered including more than 8,000 activists of Workers Struggle Front, close to the Communist Party, a suburb of Athens, in support of workers a steel plant on strike for several months in protest against wage cuts. In Salonika 7,000 people demonstrated, mostly militants Pame.

Madrid against the new reform travail.Sous the slogan "Work, dignity, rights. They want to destroy everything ", some 100,000 protesters marched in 80 cities in Spain. In Focus events: budget cuts and labor reform adopted in February by the Conservative government. "New labor reform: towards a world of slaves," proclaimed a huge banner displayed to the start of the parade. Introduced to boost labor market since the explosion damaged the housing bubble in 2008, the reform is far from proven: Spain has broken a new record Friday of unemployment in industrialized countries, with assets of four (24.4%) unemployed.

Jakarta against loss of activity due to outsourcing. In Indonesia, about 9000 people, supervised by 16,000 police and soldiers, marched in the capital Jakarta to demand wage increases and denounce the loss of activity due to outsourcing. With its 240 million inhabitants, Indonesia is one of the highest growth rates in the world (over 6% per year) thanks to its vast natural resources. But half the population is still below the international poverty line while the average monthly salary, which is just over one hundred euros, just to follow the continually rising cost of living no fax cash advance.

Hong Kong: a minimum wage increase. This area of ​​7 million people is home to many millionaires, but also hundreds of thousands of working poor. Of these, 5,000 demonstrators called for an improvement of pensions, supervision of weekly working hours and a minimum hourly wage hike of 28 Hong Kong dollars (2.7 euros) to $ 33.

Manila: fighting for purchasing power. In the Philippines, they were walking toward a 3000 presidential palace in Manila, waving portraits of President Benigno Aquino. Workers in this country plagued by corruption where a quarter of the 95 million population live on $ 1 a day their leader in dog caricature orders of foreign capitalists.

Moscow: 150,000 pro-Kremlin protesters. Less than a week of his inauguration, President-elect Vladimir Putin and the outgoing head of state Dmitry Medvedev joined a large pro-Kremlin protest organized for Labor Day in downtown Moscow. Some 150,000 demonstrators attended the rally, police said. The two leaders headed the procession, in a friendly atmosphere, on the bottom of a sign "We're strong!" The last appearance of a Russian head of state in a parade of May 1 was in 1996 when Boris Yeltsin was very unpopular protesters joined a few weeks before the presidential election.

New York: a test to Occupy Wall Street. The Wall Street Occupy movement that attracted international attention with its protests last September wishes to maintain its waning influence in connection with the May 1. Of gathering are planned, including New York and San Francisco. Public participation in these events will determine the future of a movement undermined by the lack of financial and internal dissent.

Note: Nicolas Sarkozy aims to balance public finances in 2016, Francois Hollande in 2017.

Roman Lucazeau, Chargé de Mission in the Business Institute, details the mechanisms at work in the test programs.

THE FIGARO.FR. – Why submit programs of candidates for this test?

Roman Lucazeau. – Although, compared to the 2007 presidential campaign, the programs of the two main candidates are more accurate, they still gray areas and are based on slightly different economic scenarios. This makes comparison difficult. So we tried to apply the same economic variables: growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, by 2017. We also wanted to discover what happened to the public finances if the programs were implemented with, notably, lower growth than that provided by the candidates, for example, that France has known, on average, over the past decade.

Originally, this type of exercise is applied by the financial authorities to banks. These are subject to economic scenarios degraded to assess their strength in case of economic crisis. We use a similar method to test the ability of candidates to achieve their stated goal (zero deficit in 2016 for Nicolas Sarkozy in 2017 for Francis Holland).

But in a crisis, a candidate can always abandon its initial program

.

Absolutely. We test the strength of their roadmap, as defined during the election campaign, in a worse position than they anticipate. We evaluate today's promises and do not prejudge the future president of the reactions in case of contingencies.

How does this model?

We leave the bases nominee programs (eg growth rate, the level of taxes and public spending …) and against which they built their proposals. These assumptions are public and have been developed by their campaign teams. We determine how the deficit and debt change if we change some parameters on the basis of data and public reporting, the INSEE, the Court of Auditors and of Bercy. The details of our methodology is available on our website.  

How do you ensure objectivity of your approach?

We submitted the candidates' platforms to the same constraints: same inflation, even growth, even drift government spending or health insurance, etc.. The differences between results are explained by the differences between the programs themselves. Debt strategy of the two candidates based on both on growth, tax increases and budget savings. But Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande do not intend to use these levers to the same extent. Their programs do not react the same way a change of parameters.

The main presidential candidates have one thing in common: they announce tax increases for years to come. None of them claim to return to zero deficit by cutting public expenditure only: they know that the remedy would be too much for the French social model. In addition, candidates are aware that economic growth alone will not fill the public coffers.

On this point, economists are even more cautious. Nicolas Sarkozy expects a GDP growth of 2% from 2014, Francois Hollande 2% in 2014 and 2.25% thereafter. "It would be wiser to predict growth of 1.5%," said Jean-Christophe Caffet, economist at Natixis. "And above all, to the same level, growth will generate less tax revenues spontaneously that during the expansion phase of pre-2007", warning Mathieu Plane, an economist at OFCE.

Mechanically, when the GDP is up, after the mandatory deductions. More profit, this means more corporate tax (IS), higher wages, better social security contributions and income tax (IR), etc.. But according to the type of growth, the correlation is stronger or weaker.

The economy of the early 2000s, characterized by a housing boom, was particularly conducive to tax revenue. And transfer taxes, a tax on real estate transactions, they reported to local authorities 9.6 billion in 2007, against 4.7 billion in 2000. The revenues of the ISF have almost doubled (2.2 billion in 2000, 4 billion in 2007). "Growth was also driven by household spending. A boon to the State whose main tax, VAT, sits on consumption, "adds Jean-Christophe Caffet. Finally, the SI was doped up to 2007 by record profits of banks. In a 2008 report, Philippe Marini, then general reporter (UMP) of the Senate Finance Committee, spoke of the hypothesis of a "bubble" of € 10 billion on tax burden.

"Adjustment Period"

A bubble that broke with the financial crisis. Scarce, taxes and social contributions decreased in 2009. The IS has collapsed, yielding 21 billion in 2009 against 51 billion in 2007. Since then, the tax burden returned to their pre-crisis level, with the exception of the SI (39 billion in 2011). "But if there had been no crisis, levies would exceed 23 billion that they are today. There is indeed a structural loss of revenue, "said Mathilde Lemoine, director of economic studies of HSBC.

In addition, revenues will not recover their train of yesteryear. "The growth model due to housing boom and strong consumer is finished. We have entered a period of adjustment, where wages will rise slightly. VAT, transfer duties, but also social contributions will grow less quickly, "said Jean-Christophe Caffet. So over the spontaneous surge of revenues, as before 2007. That's why taxpayers are involved since 2010. And if the economic growth forecast by the candidates was not at the rendezvous, higher taxes might be higher than 50 billion program of Francois Hollande and 16 billion provided by Nicolas Sarkozy.

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Living under the bankruptcy system, the famous Chapter 11, is not easy for a company. In a document filed with the court last week, the company found, in fact "a marked rise in employee departures in the first quarter." Departures deemed "particularly damaging" to the management level.

That's why Kodak offers to pay $ 8.5 million in an initial group of 119 frames, which still represents more than 71,400 dollars per person, to retain them. Another group of just over 200 employees, has been identified and should receive $ 5 million, or about $ 25,000 per employee.

Out of Chapter 11 is a real possibility in the United States. The most striking recent example of a successful exit is to make the assets of General Motors. This scheme allows the company to restructure while being protected from its creditors, a situation similar to the existing backup procedure in France. To achieve this, we must however keep its senior most "critical activity and the restructuring process," according to Kodak.

The company explains that "among the 7,600 employees of the group, there are many who have unique skills and value, but the weakness of available funds requires the group to make a strict selection of the beneficiaries" of this plan.

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Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic

The end of the euro in a diagram, seen by Hermans Hurre

A first in the presidential campaign. Seven of the ten candidates have succeeded on Thursday on the same stage: that of the 66th Congress of the FNSEA in Montpellier (Hérault). Only the far left was missing, including Jean-Luc Melenchon.

All candidates have outlined three major challenges. First, that of the environment, including the management of water, while the French countryside lack of rain for the second consecutive year. Nicolas Sarkozy promised a simplification of administrative authorizations: "It is enough of a preliminary statement" to build dams for irrigation of crops, "up to 350,000 m3." Other candidates have called for better water management. "We're going to crises increasingly frequent and difficult," warned François Bayrou. Also on the environmental component, Francois Hollande has put forward the alternative energy sources. "Biogas, biofuel, biomass, these are new sources of energy and new income for farmers, said the PS candidate. We must share these investments. We will adopt a tax incentive. "

Secondly, virtually consensual: the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). "I welcome the positive signs that the new CAP takes with keeping its budget. Aids represent fair compensation for the farmer to a policy of low prices to the consumer ", ruled Francois Bayrou. Marine Le Pen is the only advocate a judgment of the CAP in favor of a "PAF" (French agricultural policy), that is to say a re-nationalization of aid. "I am here to defend the interests of French gardeners and French consumers. I do not want a Europe which includes agricultural servant of the WTO, "warned the leading frontist. The sovereigntist Nicolas Dupont-Aignan demanded "firm renegotiation of the CAP because we pay $ 7 billion more to the EU budget that we receive."

Reduction in the hourly cost

Finally, the third item listed, competitiveness. France is now the third largest in Europe in trade of agricultural and food products, behind Germany and the Netherlands. "There must be logical and contractual solidarity, to be more competitive. This will be the sense of public investment bank that will support the development of SMEs in the food industry, pleaded Francois Hollande. We will develop a collective and not individual contract between farmers and manufacturers, allowing visibility of volumes but also the prices. "

Nicolas Sarkozy has defended his hand down the cost schedule adopted under his five-year seasonal and the permanent employees that will result from the social VAT. "97% of agricultural workers are covered by a 5.4% decrease in payroll taxes," he repeated. As for the little candidate Jacques Cheminade, which boasts a history of commercial counselor of France in New York, he is committed to "put innovation and research at the center of the debate on agriculture to meet the challenge of 2050, that of feeding 9 billion of men. "

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With rent "premium" (neighborhood prestige) set to 1 255 € / m² / year, Central London (West End, Midtown, City and Docklands) still holds the record for the most expensive place in Europe. Despite a decline in business, the rent "premium" has continued to increase throughout the year because of the shortage of Class A surfaces in the West End and Midtown particular. "This market has been driven by the technology sector, media, telecommunications and accounting firms," ​​says Dan Bayley, Director General for Central London at BNP Paribas Real Estate. The City has a lower rating but if we judge by the latest transaction carried out at 710 € / m² / year in the Leadenhall Building on 17,652 sqm leased by Aon, the insurance brokerage firm and reinsurance.  

Geneva on the top rent is € 818 / m² / year in a market but only on narrow 35 000 m² of offices.

Central Paris arrives in BNP Paribas Real Estate ranked third with an average premium value of 810 € / m² / year, sometimes exceeded in the seventh district, which is now part of Paris CBD (Central Business District).

Moscow climbed to fourth place with a rent of 544 € / m² / year in the downtown core that can reach 800 € / m². Conversely, on some streets listed under the rent reduction: Leningradskoe on Higway, 39, Olympia Park in the building, nearly 30,000 sqm were leased by Kaspersky Lab to 465 € / m² / year flexcheck cash advance.

Milan keeps fifth place at 520 € / m² / year, posting a stable rents despite an increase in transactions of almost 10%. The five other cities do not cross the threshold of € 500 / m² / year. Stockholm, however, comes close with a rent premium of 484 € / m² / year after rising nearly 13% in one year, closely followed by Luxembourg at 480 € / year / m increase of 5.3% …. ….

With 432 € / m² / year, Frankfurt is still the first German city in rental value and activity despite an increase in rents of just 3% and stability of transactions.

Rome maintains its 420 € / m² / year for almost two years despite a fall, this year 12% of its activity. It is also the only city in the Top Ten in not having increased in value during this period.

Munich comes in tenth position to 396 € / m² / year. "The city is experiencing strong growth, which reflects on the office property. Rents have jumped 10% in a year in take-up has almost doubled in one year, from 599,000 m² to 883,000 m², "said Piotr Bienkowski, Executive Chairman of BNP Paribas Real Estate Germany.

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