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Droughts and fires will they bring Russia to its knees? The Russian government admitted on Tuesday that recent weather events will cost between 0.7 and 0.8 growth in the country. Without this unprecedented heat wave last half-century, the Russian economy would have increased from 4.4 to 4.7% in 2010, according to a first estimate unveiled by Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach. The final cost of these disasters should be known in November.

"The extreme heat and smoke from fires have forced businesses to close their plants or reduce their production schedules," according to economists at HSBC payday advance lenders. "The productivity of those who have maintained their production has declined considerably." These climatic events were particularly affected the agricultural sector. Wheat production is expected to drop by and third.What make analysts more pessimistic than the government: they think the heat wave is expected to cost a point of growth.

Russia, however, had started the year well, with a growth rate of 2.9% in the first quarter and 5.2% in the second. "In the third quarter, the activity should be particularly weak and a scenario of stagnation can not be ruled out," HSBC economists said.

The acquisition by Sanofi-Aventis Genzyme will Does the operation of the summer? Sanofi-Aventis, Genzyme would have sent a letter mentioning his interest in the company, according to a source close to the deal relayed by Reuters, adding that the two companies were discussing the offer.

According to the agency, the proposed acquisition would be valued around $ 18.4 billion, or $ 69 per share. For several days, analysts forecasts of competing on the amount of the bid. The Wall Street Journal, the offer of French would be between 67 and 70 dollars per share valuing the American between 17 and 18.8 billion dollars.

Genzyme is not ready to accept an offer below $ 80 a share. But analysts said Sanofi-Aventis could make a first offer around $ 70 per share to acquire the U.S. biotech. What it would raise its offer to $ 80.A price for analysts remain quite tolerable for the French group. Quoted by Reuters, one analyst said that "70 dollars would be a first offer" and that "at $ 80 it remains a good deal for Sanofi. Same story for another sector specialist who believes that $ 80 "operation creates value in three years that will follow."

Sanofi single buyer under Citi

As for Citigroup, estimated that Sanofi will likely be the only buyer of American specialist on rare diseases and will pay between 74-77 dollars per share, or 19.7 to 20.5 billion dollars (15.0 to 15 6 billion euros). They add that the French lab could launch a hostile bid if Genzyme resists and present its offer directly to shareholders.He continued: "shareholder Relational Investors, Carl Icahn, who hold respectively 3.8% and 4.9% from Genzyme, could be satisfied with an offer around $ 75 since they bought at 61 and 54 dollars. In fact, an agreement would be accretive to $ 75 4% in 2011 and 13% in 2013 for Sanofi, analysts have calculated the Citi.

At Raymond James, Eric Le Berrigaud doubt that "70 dollars is sufficient. Starting at $ 70, is ready to go up to 80 dollars, "he notes. "And at 80 dollars it is not certain whether all the guarantees of success because it is about the level or action Genzyme was before its production problems. The biotech has indeed experienced last year a series of production problems on its sites in the United States, which continue to weigh on its business.

A fourth analyst insists that Sanofi is expected to launch its bid for Genzyme even if it does not create value for the group's objective is to increase its earnings per share. "For the operation to bring value, it should pay less than $ 70 per share, or about 64 dollars," he says. "If Sanofi launches operation beyond, is that the group favors a financial logic in the short to medium term to close down its results and not the logic of value creation."

Doubts to find a "white knight"

Sources familiar with the case, it said last week that Sanofi had sent a letter to Genzyme with the terms of its offer. This offer would be "friendly" at first but may become hostile if necessary.

The Board of Directors of Sanofi would have authorized an offer of 18.7 billion dollars.But Sanofi has financial guidelines allowing it to raise its offer, that is to say, bring it to more than $ 70 per share. The experts, anyway, doubt that Genzyme is a "white knight" to deal with Sanofi.

Meanwhile, as Genzyme was trading late Monday to end at 70.36 dollars, up 1.15%. In exchange after exchange, the title earned more than 2% to just under $ 72. Since the early rumors, Genzyme shares gained 38%.

Remy Cointreau will he a toast to celebrate the growth of its sales in the first quarter of fiscal year 2010-2011? From April to June 2010, the total turnover amounted in effect to 170.9 million euros, up 19.3% excluding currency effects (23.6% as reported) from Figures released on Thursday on the group's website. Off partner brands, sales totaled 149.7 million euros, increasing by 21.3% excluding currency effects (25.7% as reported).

The group attributes this success to "the effectiveness of its new distribution system [established on 1 April 2009, note], the strength of its brands and the relevance of its marketing investments."

The cognac and champagne up sharply

Remy Cointreau is pleased that the sales growth for all regions except Japan.

The group of wines and spirits enjoy the exhilaration of the cognac sector advancing by 37.7% organic. Remy Cointreau said the "very positive dynamic in China and in Travel Retail" adding that "the United States and Europe are also growing."

The champagne also rebounded 20.7% after problems at the end of last year. The group said that in Japan and Australia, growth is adversely affected by high inventories.

However, the sector Liquors and Spirits trouble restarting. He recorded a slight increase of 0.4% as reported and a decline of 3.4% excluding currency effects.

"Staying the course"

Remy Cointreau said that "in a still uncertain economic environment," he "stays the course with its strategy of long-term value," focusing on "development of its leading brands."

The group said it had "successfully issued a bond of 205 million euros in June last and benefit from the improved level of the dollar against the euro.

After a pause of three days (Monday holiday), the U.S. stock market, resumed the height Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 advancing in effect by 1.3% to 1035 points and 1.7% to 2126 points. On Friday, the NYSE has fallen heavily, cooled by the monthly figures of employment in the United States, although less well than expected. Last week, the Dow Jones dropped 4.51% to 9686.48 points, ending Friday at its lowest level since October 5. The Nasdaq fell 5.92% to 2091.79 points and the Standard & Poor's 500 index 5.03% to 1022.58 points.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro continues to rise on Tuesday. At 15.30, the euro gained 0.38% to 1.2592 dollar.

The session on Wall Street, will begin with the announcement of the PMI services.Apart from this indicator, no other major news is expected.

After the disappointment of Friday on the employment figures, investors should be particularly careful this week to weekly figures for unemployment benefits that are to be published Thursday.

The employment report in June showed Friday that the U.S. economy had reduced jobs for the first time since the beginning of the year. Even the decline in the unemployment rate to 9.5% was not enough to reassure investors, this situation reflects the despair of a portion of the workforce, which seeks more jobs.On Wall Street as on most other major world places, operators should play the card of caution this week before the opening of the interim results season.

On the face values

Within the Dow, the ball begins, as always, with results from Alcoa July 12 (next Monday).

Meanwhile, the discount retailer Family Dollar Stores (3% to 39.8 dollars) to publish its half-yearly results on Wednesday credit score. This will be the only company in the S & P 500 to publish its results this week.

The BP Plc, also listed on Wall Street leads the session with an increase of 4.9% to 30.8 million.After the group has denied being the search for new shareholders, Shokri Ghanem, Chairman of National Oil Co, a Libyan oil, said that Libya should return to the capital of the British oil company.

The share of investment bank Goldman Sachs benefits of raising recommendation JPMorgan, which rose to overweight on the title: +1.7% to 133.3 million.

Ford Motors has seen its price target return of 16-14 dollars by Goldman Sachs, the bank has lowered its estimate of overall vehicle sales in 2010. However, retain a recommendation "attractive" on the automotive sector. Finally, shares rise 1.5% to 10.43 dollars.

News Corp., the media group founded by Rupert Murdoch, The Wall Street Journal, in discussion with Google, Microsoft and Yahoo! for the sale of advertising space on MySpace, so that the current contract with Google ends.The securities earn 1% to 11.9 million.

The group of agrochemicals and seeds Monsanto (0.3% to 46.7 U.S. dollars) Monday withdrew its complaint against European importers of industrial soybean meal from Argentina. Monsanto previously estimated that they infringed its European patent on its Roundup Ready soybeans. But the group has settled its dispute with the Dutch importer and dealer Cefetra raw Alfred C. Toepfer International just before decide the European Court of Justice on the case Tuesday.

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The leaders of Taiwan and mainland China signed Monday in Chongqing, Sichuan, a free trade agreement that will profoundly change the relationship between the two countries. Called framework agreement on economic cooperation (ECFA), it plans to introduce preferential tariffs on 539 products exported from Taiwan to China, the island being provided by 250 Chinese products. More favorable to Taiwan and in Beijing, however, it divides the citizens of the island. They fear that China, which does not recognize the Republic of Taiwan and considers it a renegade province, one profits to strengthen its hold on her and never grows to become like Hong Kong, part of its territory since 1997 .

Quiet weekend on Wall Street. On Friday, the U.S. stock market finished on a small increase of 0.16% at 10,451 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.11% to 2310 points while the S & P takes 0.13% to 1118 points.

Thursday already, Wall Street has ended in the green of accuracy at the very end of the day for the seventh straight session. This Friday, the meeting was a meeting of "four witches, one return is the quarterly expiration of four futures contracts: stock options, index options, futures and equity contracts index futures. The day has been less volatile than expected.

For the week, the Dow Jones gained 2.33%, the Nasdaq is 3.56% while the S & P wins 2.37%.

DSK reassuring spain

Today, no major macroeconomic appointment was expected.Investors have kept a close eye on the outcome of discussions between the IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. The IMF was very reassuring to turn on the country's ability to emerge from its difficulties financières.La day, following the Summit of Heads of State in Brussels, President Nicolas Sarkozy, also ensured that there was "no concern" about the financial health of Spain and no rescue plan was the agenda.

The markets have greeted the news without euphoria.The tension seems to be but fell from a cran.Sur the foreign exchange market, the euro lost some ground late in the day after playing just above the threshold of $ 1.24 in the morning.

Wells Fargo and Freddie Mac under pressure

On the side of values, Wells Fargo (0.29% to 28.01 dollars) and Freddie Mac (who signs a beautiful cascade of -15.90% to 0.43 U.S. dollars) has announced that it indirectly affected by the spill. The default rate of loans in the affected area is progressing, particularly in the case of enterprises in the tourism sector.Wells Fargo offers 90 days additional time for payment to households and suspend foreclosures in this area.

Always on the side of values, action BP (+0.16% to 31.76 U.S. dollars) which has soared from 8% the day following the company's decision to reduce investments and increase asset sale non-strategic to 10 billion dollars, should remain in the spotlight much longer. The 20 billion of deposits to compensate victims of oil pollution in the Gulf of Mexico also had a positive effect on the group's image.

Motorola (0.97% to 7.26 dollars) will buy most of its debt and inject liquidity into the mobile handset subsidiary that intends to create by means of a split, it was learned sources familiar with the matter.

The tone rises between the administration of Barack Obama and BP. The head of the American branch of the oil company, Lamar McKay, said Tuesday at a hearing in Congress, he refused to promise the creation of an escrow account to compensate victims of oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico. The $ 20 billion has been raised in a letter to the CEO of BP, Tony Hayward. "I am not able to tell if an account is established or not," said Lamar McKay. "I can not commit, either one way or the other"

The idea had been raised by the White House. Several members of Congress while announcing their desire to put pressure on BP to put it in receivership on payment of its dividend in order to ensure compensation for victims of the disaster, compared to a "September 11th green" by Barack Obama.

According to the White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs, is already preparing the risposta in the Oval Office. Barack Obama will "be forced either to reach an agreement with BP to withdraw their control of the process of claims and entrusted to an independent structure, so that people who have been harmed to obtain the money they is due, "said the spokesman. The administration is based on the polluter pays law in force in the United States, which requires BP to pay the costs of plugging the leak of oil, cleaning the polluted coastline and compensation for victims.Traveling in Pensacola Beach, Florida, Bush assured the residents affected by the oil spill that would "whatever it takes, as long as it takes to be sure that BP is paying for the damage that it has caused.

An oration

President Barack Obama has formally addressed his countrymen on Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. (2:00 am, Paris time). He will be speaking from the Oval Office of the White House, space reserved for the most serious crises and whom he'd never used a speech to the nation.

A senior, Bush will announce the appointment of a person responsible for restoring long-term disaster areas by the oil spill that pollutes the Gulf of Mexico. The "czar" as the press dubbed the American mission will be to "restore the Gulf of Mexico.Not to where it was the day when the accident occurred. But to restore it to where it was years ago: to increase the life and vitality of the species, wildlife and natural beauty that characterizes the Gulf of Mexico, "said Robert Gibbs.

Barack Obama will set out above "the need to reduce our dependence vis-a-vis oil and fossil fuels" No faxing 1 hour payday loans. He will also discuss the "changes necessary for such a disaster never happens again more. According to an anonymous source, the U.S. president will "present the measures taken to protect those who suffer financially from this disaster, especially during the process of compensation."

"The tragedy was avoidable

Under pressure, BP must also face competition that dares to push it."I am convinced that the independent investigation will show that this tragedy was preventable," and called John Watson, head of oil company Chevron to members of the Committee on Energy and Commerce House of Representatives. The explosion and the sinking of the platform in late April Deepwater Horizon "show once again that all companies must work under the same strict safety and reliability. It is obvious that not following these rules has serious consequences, "he added.

"It is imperative that an investigation expert, impartial and comprehensive investigation takes place, because this incident represents a serious breach of standards relating to offshore drilling, for his part stressed the boss of ExxonMobil, Rex Tillerson .

In addition to the Chevron boss and ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips and Shell were present. Facing them, Lamar McKay attempted to defend his group."I want to make things clear: BP will know no rest until the wells will not be under control and that we do not understand what happened," he said.

Ficth puts his two cents

BP has several weeks to manage its bad reputation. The group would also relies on advisers to help him. The efforts required will be considerable, especially since the rating agency Fitch has come to contribute to the debate on Tuesday, lowering the notches of six notes of the British major. The latter is now BBB AA cons. Fitch maintains it under "surveillance implications". The rating agency is particularly concerned that BP may be forced by U.S. authorities to place large sums into accounts in receivership.This is the first time that the note of BP is lowered several notches by the three leading rating agencies worldwide and it falls below the AA.

At the London Stock Exchange, BP shares ended the session on a further drop of 3.78% to 342 pence while the FTSE close up on 0.30%. In New York, the action is able to earn 2.18% to 31.31 dollars during the session on a market up 1.22%.

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The hole in government finances gradually fills. The state budget deficit has narrowed significantly over one year thanks to higher tax revenues. According to recent estimates by the Ministry of Budget released Tuesday, it rose to 56.2 billion euros in late April against 71.6 billion a year earlier, at the height of the crisis.

The increase in revenues explains this improvement, with 81.6 billion euros against 70.2 billion a year earlier. The only tax revenues increased by 11.3 billion. In contrast, spending rose slightly, to 130.6 billion euros in late April against 127 billion a year earlier.

Revenue growth could continue in the coming months if economic activity is more vigorous as anticipated the Bank of France (BDF).The institution has in fact confirmed its growth forecast for the second quarter to 0.5% in its May business survey released Tuesday. The activity increased only 0.1% over the first three months of the year.

Dynamism of the interim

In May, the services have been fired by the rebound of the interim and computer activities, details the Bank of France. However, "forecasts indicate a more moderate increase in activity in the coming months," notes BdF. In industry, all sectors advanced, with the exception of the car, even if the rate of use of means of production remains below its long period to 76.2% in April against 75.7 % in March."The outlook in the short term [the industry] are oriented towards maintaining production," notes BdF.

Trade deficit down

On Tuesday, Customs has also published the trade figures in April. The trade deficit was only moderately reduced by 160 million euros compared to the previous month, -4248000000 euros. Exports, driven by major aerospace contracts, rose 1%, more strongly than imports.

"The geographical breakdown of the data confirms that the resumption of world trade is indeed driven by demand from emerging economies," notes Alberto Balboni, an economist at Xerfi."The French exports to China grew by 38.6% in value compared to last year, a pace almost four times more sustained than those to the European Union." But the empire Environment is still only 3% of exports hexagonal.

Falling German exports

In the same month of April, German exports fell by 8.03% compared to the previous month, according to figures released on Tuesday the Federal Statistics Office Destatis. After a dramatic rebound of 22.3% in March, this figure "must be analyzed as a small correction," relativize Natixis economists in a note.

However, the decline in German imports of 4.63% seems to be bad news for France, the first trading partner of Germany.And things should not be arranged in the coming months, with the establishment in 2011 of fiscal savings of 11.2 billion euros in Germany. As noted Juliette Hubert, Aster, "plans rigorously engaged by our trading partners will lead to a contraction of the request to the French industry."

The World arouses much envy. Reportedly, a pair of French investors, the financier Pierre Berg? and Matthew Pigasse (boss of Lazard France) have already created an ad hoc finance their investment group Le Monde, which must find at least 50 million euros of fresh money by the summer. They could submit their applications before the end of June, when the direction of the World should submit details of its recapitalization plan to vote of its shareholders.

For its part, Le Nouvel Observateur has formalized its commitment Tuesday night to climb to the capital of the world which holds 1.75%. "Given the funding problems that arise, Le Nouvel Observateur can not remain indifferent and wants to contribute to a solution that preserves this independence," he said.Contacted yesterday, confirming The World "in talks with the group Nouvel Observateur, which is not the only one with which he pursues the talks". Spanish Prisa, a shareholder of 15.01% of the world, and L'Espresso have already expressed their interest in recent months.