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In the wake of the Asian stock markets, down sharply Tuesday morning despite a slight improvement at the end, the financial center of Paris does not know how to behave on Tuesday … Faced with fears of economic recovery and the financial situation of countries, the Paris index is in fact the yo-yo since the opening, from a technical rebound in early trading, a new panic attacks (-3 , 08%), 1:30 after the opening. The Paris index is even pressed for less than a minute to below 3000 points, a threshold that had not crossed since July 13, 2009. This excitement is not surprising, the magnitude of the losses yesterday on Wall Street (close to 600 points for the Dow, or 5.5% decrease) who confirmed the complete absence of calm in the markets.

The Cac 40 started his session on a net increase of more than 2%, to 3188.27 points …before declining (-3.35% to 3020.46 points at 10:45). Shared a tendency in Europe: Frankfurt, after opening down, quickly moved into the green before sinking to 3.01% at 5745 points. In Madrid, the Ibex 35 also passes into the red in 10 hours (-1.67% to 8318.30 points). Only the London remained in the red since the opening (-2.75% to 4929.54 points).

Pic of volatility

This new session, that of all the dangers after Black Monday in the markets, not immune to the extreme nervousness of investors. With a drop of 18% of the index in Paris in eleven sessions, the CAC 40 lost again yesterday his record consecutive bearish sessions.In addition, the volatility (the highest for two and a half years as the VIX (16.7%), shows that investors are not convinced by measures taken in Europe and the United States for fiscal consolidation and boost growth.

Even the 2 billion euros pledged by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Monday to buy back bonds in Italy and Spain, have yielded only very temporarily a little breath on the markets. According to a consensus of managers interviewed by Reuters, the institution should indeed buy at least 100 billion of sovereign debt in Spain and Italy to strengthen the euro area and reduce the pressure on the markets.However, the relaxation on the 10-year rates of the two countries is continuing this morning, those of Spain from below 5%, while those in Italy were approaching that threshold.

Moreover, the lack of effect on the markets of the intervention of U.S. President Barack Obama reveals that political speech has no impact on investors, beyond the break-off. This has not prevented the U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, to find that governments and central banks, have "largely on the margin" to address the crisis. European side, the statements are also increasing, Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, on Tuesday called on governments to "do their job" and put in place as soon as possible bailout of Greece, adopted on 21 July.

Policy responses are not sufficient to calm the

Is it possible? Hard to say, as investor psychology seems to look for a disability policy to find new tools to address the current crisis. For two weeks, no action relieves durablementles markets and break the vicious circle in which is immersed the Paris index. From this point of view, no new ones are expected at the meeting on the macroeconomic front.

The eyes are still turned to the United States, where the Monetary Policy Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold a highly anticipated meeting this afternoon to decide on measures against the risk of a further slowdown in growth. The conclusions of this meeting, however, should not be made public until 20:15, Paris time, and will therefore not affect the European markets.

Investors console themselves with the publication at 14.30 on U.S. productivity figures for the second quarter, which could give a little more on the state of the world's largest economy. In this dark period, is good news also came on the morning of the Budget Ministry, which reported just before a stock market stabilization French public deficit at the end of June, to 61.3 billion euros. At noon will also be released by INSEE oil prices and imported materials for July. For its part the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will release its monthly report.

The barrel still under pressure

A report should be carefully watched, the price of oil is very strong pressure for 15 days, reflecting the downward revision of demand forecasts. A decline which continued Tuesday, but less than the opening.In electronic trading in Asia, the "light sweet crude" for dropped below 80 dollars (77.78 dollars in mid-day in Asia, 7 pm, Paris time), while Brent crude was down the floor of 100 dollars to 101.04 dollars back then.

As for the exchange, finally, the single European currency regained color against the greenback until the Fed meeting tonight, the euro climbed to 1.4234 dollars at 8 o'clock, against 1.4179 late Monday. Note that the face of these uncertainties, gold enjoys full status as a safe haven, record after record signing. The ounce finished on a further rise Tuesday in Hong Kong dollars to 1753.50, after hitting a new record for the session at 1772.09 dollars.

Side analysts, speeches remain cautious, noting that "the large volumes show that we are not in a sluggish market, typical of the holiday, but in a situation of significant liquidations of positions, as and as the traders confidence evaporates, "according to Jonathan at Capital Spreads Sudaria.

The side of values ​​to follow:

Financial stocks limited case (BNP Paribas was down 1.08% to 38.88 euros, Societe Generale down 1.27% to 24.80 euros and Credit Agricole lost 0.28% to 6.73 euros). In turn Natixis (1.28% to 2.93 euros) and Axa (0.82% to 11.08 euros) came to stay in the green.Faced with the sharp fall in equity markets, the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) did not consider it unnecessary at this stage to ban short selling in these securities, said Monday a spokesman for the regulator stock.

GDF Suez (-1.82% to 19.46 euros). the group has reached an agreement with the Chinese sovereign wealth fund CIC. Beijing will take a pole in its exploration and production investments and participate in the French group in Asia Pacific, told Reuters on Monday sources familiar with the matter.

Archos (-16.23% to 6.09 euros). The specialist tablets unveiled Monday a net profit after market semi-annual 1.7 million euros against a loss a year earlier.The group also confirmed its objective of a gross margin above 20% for the full year.

Euro Disney (0.60% to 5 euros) has been little state, shortly before the opening of the Exchange, an increase of 7% of its quarterly revenue (T3), to 344 million euros and announced an increase in spending per visitor.

While looming two weekends among the busiest in passenger of the year, Air France warned of now-already-and its passengers that they may have to be patient. If the airline has reached an agreement with the seven unions of Stewart and hostesses, thus avoiding a first strike scheduled for July 29 and August 1, and with the pilots, who have lifted their strike notice of August 5 to 8, it still faces other threats to social movements.

Another notice of pilots

A threat is … drivers, this time those who are carried by three minority unions – the SPAF, the Alter and R'Ways – and who have filed a strike notice for the July 29 to August 1. As the crew before them, the drivers are protesting against the offensive "anti-low cost" Air France plans to launch in its databases province.The new operation is expected to result, according to the drivers, an increase in the number of hours worked and trips a day.

For now, this movement somewhat worried the company, which does not anticipate any disruption in traffic this particular weekend.

Mechanics harden the tone

Meanwhile, the management of Air France must also manage another conflict, less publicized than those of pilots and aircrew, but that could be acted upon: some 4000 engineers responsible for maintenance of 260 units of the company practice of walkouts, for seven weeks no faxing payday loans. If the company minimizes the facts explaining that the work stoppages of one or more hours that are 50 to 100 people, the impact on traffic is nonetheless real.

According to Le Parisien, Aujourd'hui en France, long flights and medium-haul flights from Paris-Charles de Gaulle accuse each day delays of 15 to 20 minutes. Management also recognizes that it is obliged to postpone the launch of a two-plane in the evening to morning. Orly airport and Toulouse are also affected.

And before the stalled negotiations on wage demands, the engineers are threatening to get tough tonight at 22 hours. "Delays are possible and we do not exclude some cancellations," said Air France AFP. Alert bulletins on traffic conditions are published to the attention of travelers on the website of the company.

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In the case of debt, time is a luxury that the United States as Europe can not afford. This is the message sent Tuesday by Christine Lagarde, director of the International Monetary Fund. Welcoming the plan against the crisis of the Greek debt presented Thursday by EU leaders, the French hoped "that these bold steps will be followed in the United States and that action in the fiscal area will occur as quickly as possible."

In Washington, "the clock is forever and you really find a solution," insisted Christine Lagarde. Democrats and Republicans can not agree on U.S. debt, then that must be addressed prior to August 2 the maximum amount that the state can borrow in the markets (the ceiling of the debt). Otherwise the U.S. will not reimburse investors.

"Having a default or a significant reduction in the rating assigned to the signing of the United States, an event would be very, very, very serious. Not for the U.S. only, but for the world economy in general, "said the leader of the IMF. In the longer term, the IMF has asked the United States Monday to hand over "the debt to a sustainable path." U.S. debt until recently was considered by investors as an investment "safe".

If it is proved otherwise, the consequences could be incalculable. The United States "can not default on their obligations," said John Boehner, a Republican official in Congress. "The jobs and savings of too many Americans (are) in."

Threat of 'turbulence'

Europe is no exception.After the summit on Thursday, the leaders of the euro area should continue their efforts, Christine Lagarde warned: "The plan was welcomed by financial markets, as evidenced by the stronger euro and lower spreads rates on bonds of the periphery. But the turmoil could easily reappear. For this reason it is essential that the commitments of the summit are implemented quickly. "

Problem: The plan must be submitted to national parliaments for approval. "This will be done in the coming weeks. This will not happen overnight because, as is often the case in many developed economies of the Northern Hemisphere, August is relatively calm. And parliaments are closed, "admitted the director of the IMF. But Europeans do not have the luxury of taking their time.I think there is an expectation that things should move forward and be implemented not only by the countries directly concerned but also by governments who, as I said, kept their promises. "

To help stem the debt crisis, the IMF disbursed $ 330 billion to date, also recalled Christine Lagarde. Given this fact, the IMF might have to seek new funds to its member countries, its director admitted: "In the not too distant future we will probably take an interest in this issue."

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Pending the arrival of his eagerly awaited first smartphone with the Windows operating system Phone at the end of the year, and production "mass" in 2012, we have to wait markets and customers. That Stephen Elop, president of Nokia strived to do during the CommunicAsia exhibition in Singapore. "Our main strategy in the field of smartphones is to focus on the Windows phone," he said, for its next billion mobile.

For Nokia, it is urgent. Last month, the group issued a warning on its sales and results, giving even to make predictions, as the period is difficult.Its sales continue to decline, it would hold more than 13.1% of the smartphone market in the first quarter against 25% a year earlier.

But maintaining a strong presence of the Symbian operating system in its range and choice of Microsoft at the expense of Android leave many doubts cast. While the number of applications available on a smartphone is a paramount requirement, the Finn is not in the race. It strives for the time to catch up in smartphones, highlighting the N9 in Singapore, expected to outdo the iPhone and Android to its competitors. To do so, Nokia boasts jumble "three home pages," his "handy user interface," "better voice quality," connectivity … The N9 (under platform Meego) is also equipped with a NFC connection, which enables contactless payments.With this feature, shows that Nokia is still able to board the train for a new technology, not to watch the competition from without it.

With the launch of three new models (N8, E7, C7 and C6-01 will be sold in July) Nokia has pushed the highlight of its commitment to Symbian OS. These terminals will be equipped with the new update system Symbian Anna. Novelty of this new version, it will be downloadable for those who have already bought one of these phones. And over the next twelve months, Nokia will market up to ten new smartphones based on Symbian. From there to imagine that the Finnish and protects against possible setbacks of its U.S. partner, there is only one step.It also reaffirms its loyalty and its customers, accustomed to its operating system, and that it might lose by abandoning it completely. Hence the idea to favor a smooth transition.

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There will be new to a department store in Paris Samaritan. Six years after the closure, the emotion, the institution founded by the Cognac-Jay in 1870, the extensive rehabilitation plan for the site was unveiled Wednesday as part of a House Project installed on site, open to the public tomorrow, inaugurated by Bertrand Delanoe, Mayor of Paris, and Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH, owner of the premises. Contrary to what had been previously announced, a department store will be part of this versatile package, which covers an entire block in downtown Paris.It certainly will not find "any" as before, but the Samaritan, on a small area on three floors, will endeavor to be reborn as a business concept that has yet to be defined.

The application for a building permit must be filed at the end of the month after the vote Monday by the Council of Paris of a new phase of this long drama. A public inquiry should be launched in September and getting the green light, expected by mid-2012, would then start the work planned on just over two years. An opening is thus referred to the end of 2014 if all goes well.

A symbolic handover and structuring. The U.S. site video rental Netflix, which distributes DVDs and subscription movies online, now generates its own 30% of U.S. Internet traffic during peak periods. Netflix is ​​the most voracious consumer of capacity on the fixed Internet, according to a study published by Sandvine, a specialist in the management of online traffic. On a full day, its share of traffic reached 22.2%. Netflix is ​​ahead and the sharing site BitTorrent files, a mecca for illegal downloading, which loses its position as the online service more greedy with 21.6% of traffic.

"Netflix is ​​now the undisputed king of bandwidth in North America," the study notes. For its authors, this rocker confirms that "we are now in the age of Internet video.""Customers have clearly adopted the online video service Netflix, fundamentally changing the Internet landscape," said Sandvine. And the change will be sustainable, development of mobile devices such as digital decoders and iPad like Roku and Boxee to make further use of Netflix in the U.S..

23.6 million subscribers

The break came quickly. During the previous wave of the study, published in autumn 2010, Netflix is ​​still picking up "only" 20.61% of Internet traffic during peak hours. Netflix, which has 23.6 million subscribers to its video service, has recruited 6.7 million over the past seven months.

The service, founded in 1997 by Marc Randolph and Reed Hastings, started in mail delivery of DVDs ordered online. Then he revolutionized the market in October 2010, introducing an Internet subscription only $ 7.99 per month.For this sum, the subscriber can consume an unlimited number of movies and TV shows to a PC or a TV connected to the Internet. In parallel, the department has stepped up agreements with U.S. television networks like HBO and AMC to access more content. Finally, Netflix is ​​a service automatically offered in the Apple TV set-top boxes.

Above all, the company has managed to win the TV show via video game consoles connected to the Internet. Thus, the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 are the first two modes of access to Netflix, used respectively by 31% and 25% of subscribers. The Nintendo Wii accounts for 11% of subscribers. In total, these three consoles represent 67% of subscriptions. They precede the PC, chosen by 19.55% of users.

Capped plans

Netflix subscribers who access the service through game consoles connected to "consume twice as much data" than other customers, also notes Sandvine. Similarly, the study estimates that a third of Xbox 360 connected to the United States are used to distribute movies rented from American society.

Faced with this abuse of traffic, Netflix has started making arrangements. Thus, it seeks to reduce by two thirds the bandwidth consumption in Canada, noting that much of its subscribers have Internet packages capped. Its share of Canadian traffic has increased from 13.5% to 5.7%, says Sandvine.

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It's definitely good news. Growth of 2011 has started on a flying, rising 1% in the first quarter, after the tiny increase of 0.3% in the last quarter of 2010, according to figures released Friday by the INSEE. Not only is it much better than what was expected, but it is also the best quarterly performance registered by France since 2006. You almost forget that the institute of statistics at the same time, lowered the growth figures for the previous three years!

The Economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, who blew the whistle on the previous evening, was immediately welcomed this figure, which confirms "that the French economy is set on a path of robust recovery."Jean-Francois Cope, secretary general of the UMP, for his part spoke of "excellent performance".

It must be said that, as the saying goes at Bercy, all the lights earlier this year are "green" to watching a few nuances in detail. Household consumption was slightly accelerated, rising 0.6% against 0.4% over the last three months of 2010. And proof that the expenses do not only with cars and the latest gaming effects of scrapping the service consumption rebounded sharply. Business investment has, meanwhile, performed well.

Click on the thumbnail to enlarge the graphic.

The institute noted however that the balance of trade "contributes negatively again" on GDP growth (-0.4 point), but that "this is more than offset" by changes in business inventories, which contribute positively to 0.7 percentage points to growth.

Industrial production finally jumped 3.4% and `show its strongest growth over the last thirty years," Christine Lagarde welcomes. Which does not specify that this rebound in industrial production is largely due to the production of refined products, which dates back strongly for technical reasons related to the correction of consequences "of social movements at the end of last year" in refineries , said Insee.

"A little less strong"

The Minister of Economy nevertheless acknowledged "very possible" that the second quarter "a little less strong.""One swallow does not make statistical economic spring," said, in his way, the number two PS, Harlem Desir.

For even if the number of start of the year is a reflection of economic situation improves, the pace may not continue. Rising raw material, exchange rate of the euro, higher inflation that continues in the purchasing power effect of stock-cons, or international situation deteriorates … So many reasons fear a slowdown in coming months .

Bercy, however, confirmed on Friday its growth forecast for 2011 to 2%. The goal now seems achievable because over for the current year is already 1.6%.Traditionally more pessimistic, the European Commission was asked to meet on Friday too, its growth forecast for the Hexagon, 1.7% to 1.8% over the year.

2008, 2009, two years of recession

Each year in May, INSEE revised the growth of the three previous years. This time, it's a bunch down! Growth in 2010 has not reached as planned 1.5% but 1.4%. The recession of 2009 was 2.6% and not 2.5%.But it is in 2008 that the difference is most significant: adjusted downwards by 0.3 percentage points, the year does not end on a growth of 0.1% as announced, but a decline in GDP of 0, 2%, according to Insee

Moreover, the institute has recalculated the slight increase in deficit (state, social security, local) of France in 2010 to 7.1% of GDP at year end as against 7% announced earlier.

As for the debt, it was 82.3%, instead of 81.7% predicted previously to 1 591.2 billion.

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Lefigaro.fr – The stock market crash experienced by the materials last week he requires investors to be more responsive?

Fabrice Cousté – We have entered a period in which electronic exchanges and automated to make faster and faster. This is not about to stop! Uncertainties about the euro and oil prices have created an appetite among investors for increasing trading currencies and commodities with a time horizon ranging from several days to a few seconds! Since early May, some hedge funds that had long positions in commodities and the euro came out massively causing a sharp drop of nearly ten dollars on oil. Meanwhile, the euro flirted with the $ 1.50 fell below the $ 1.45 and is now heading towards $ 1.40.These movements in raw materials could weigh on the CAC 40, including through lower oil stocks: Total, Technip and Vallourec.

What do you attribute the return of the volumes traded on the CAC 40 (six billion euro traded on average over the first two sessions of the week)?

These sessions illustrate the volatility of financial markets. And when I talk about financial markets, I do not take into account only the Paris stock exchange but also the Forex (currency market), which weighs 1000 times more than the CAC 40 (4000 billion dollars are traded daily on forex).

Is it out of raw materials?

The sharp drop ('sell off') shows that we are witnessing a situation of bubble that formed on certain assets (gold, silver, oil) and deflates even faster than many of the positions initiated at purchases were intended to hedge against a weakening greenback pronounced. This one covers the force, these positions are unwound or reversed, thus amplifying the plunge.

I would say that the recent plunge in oil is only a pause in a structural increase. I remain convinced that indeed the global economy is experiencing recovery, albeit slow, raw materials remain structurally high levels. Indeed, the double-digit growth in emerging countries may decrease, but these countries are on track for rapid expansion that will require more and more natural resources.We need to get used to the prospect of a sustained oil price at $ 100 a barrel and more in years to come. This new environment should promote market recovery for companies in "green business" (new energy, recycling, energy conservation).

What impact on portfolio management?

The sector rotations will be more frequent. In the short term we will also know where you have a new focus on defensive stocks such as telecoms and technology sectors expanding. As for values ​​that have real pricing power (the ability of firms to impose higher prices, Ed), the ability to pass the rising cost of raw materials in their products are preferable. This is where the champions of luxury such as LVMH and PPR values ​​but also with strong brands such as Danone and Essilor.

Conversely, investors should stay away from utilities and automobiles. Regarding the oil companies, I am negative court term and long-term positive. Good surprises are also possible for banks, but these are values ​​highly speculative and totally dependent on how the policies will manage the debt crisis of the Greek.

A more reactive wrong does not accentuate the lack of interest for individual stocks, considered a distribution medium or long term?

Today, it is true that individuals invest more to take risks but to protect themselves. They therefore turn to the massive gold or stone. The market environment has changed. It is uncertain therefore more complex to understand.But those who still believe the shares are able to adapt their trading, also passing through alternative platforms that will become the next referent of finance or by taking advantage of new business tools ("stop loss" orders intelligent programming strategy) that are available to them. Although the regulator wants to break the speed of trades and trading high frequency counter, it can not prevent the development of these platforms.

The Cac 40 barely exceed the 4200 points for three months. How do you explain it?

The revival of the Cac 40 depends mainly comeback banking shares. In view of its excellent results, BNP Paribas can return to a range between 70 and 75 euros and Societe Generale between 60 and 65 euros by the end of the year.The CAC 40 should not drop below 3800 points for corporate earnings in the first quarter are still excellent. Conversely, as the uncertainties regarding the recovery of Greece will not be lifted, the CAC 40 may not exceed the 4200 points.

They are the must of French hospitality. The distinction "palace" was awarded Thursday for the first time in France to eight luxury hotels supposed to embody "excellence in French," announced the jury for their selection. The eight institutions to join this new club are very close to Le Bristol Paris, the Meurice, the Park Hyatt Paris-Vendome and the Plaza-Athénée. In the provinces there is the Hotel du Palais in Biarritz, the Cranberries and Cheval Blanc in Courchevel, and the Grand Hotel Cap Ferrat in Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat.

The challenge is to distinguish among institutions except the 130 5-star hotels that already exist. Fourteen candidates have filed for candidacy. But not all have been retained. In the capital, Bristol, George V, Meurice, Plaza-Athenee, Ritz and Hyatt Park were in the running.In the provinces, the Negresco in Nice, and Cheval Blanc in Courchevel Cranberries, and the Hotel du Palais in Biarritz, have also postulated.

Conversely, some very prestigious hotels have chosen to duck the first round due to work, like the Eden Roc in Antibes. 5 stars like the Fouquet's in Paris did not submit a dossier explaining that appear as a palace might scare away business customers. The Crillon, which has just been sold by the U.S. investment fund Starwood Capital, has not applied, since it requires a heavy renovation.

As newcomers to Paris, starting with the Shangri-La and the Royal Monceau Mandarin Oriental pending this year and the Peninsula in 2012, they did not have access to the competition, requiring more eligibility conditons of … 30 months old.

Applicants under the palace had until December to apply.Have completed two phases of instruction, one led by France Trump to see if they met the "objective" criteria such as size of room, activity for 24 months minimum in case of complete refurbishment of the facility, 30 in case opening, multilingual staff, spa etc..

The second was conducted by a jury of ten members, headed by academician Dominique Fernandez, who was judging criteria "subjective" as the exceptional character of the institution in its history or architecture, speed and permanence of its service, its excellent food and comfort …

The cold shower! Between January and March, the amount of money bet on sports online paris tumbled 26.5% in France compared to last quarter of 2010. According to the Regulatory Authority online games (Arjel), they accounted for 147 million euros for all 16 sites de paris sportifs allowed (BetClick, Bwin, PMU, … FdJ).

"This is a significant decrease, but this does not mean that athletes will put Paris down more than 20% this year, according to Jean-Francois Vilotte, president of the Arjel. The market just opened and we have no referent for the first quarter of 2010. We are attentive. It should not be the legal tender, for lack of attractiveness, the lead players trying to reconnect with the illegal sites. "

Football remains the supreme discipline of bettors

Several factors explain this lack of enthusiasm of the punters, starting with the sports calendar.There was no unifying event as a World Cup football, capable of boosting demand. Football remains the supreme discipline of punters, with 54% of stakes, to tennis (24%).

That said, the end of 2010 had not been richer in big tournaments. Operators are responsible for what happens to them. "To reconstruct a portion of their margins and respect the average rate of return to players imposed by law, they have degraded their ratings, making them less attractive to paris players," said Jean-Francois Vilotte. Indeed, if the bets were down 26.5% in the first quarter, gross gaming revenue has increased it to 33 million against 27 million last quarter of 2010. "Operators have underestimated the lack of culture in France paris sport and have not adapted their supply, said Jean-Francois Vilotte.Italian and English are long accustomed to paris sports, often to excess. But bet on Beckham's haircut is not necessary for sports! "

Missing operators

However, fans of horse racing and poker paris are themselves remained at the rendezvous. In the first quarter, the amount bet in paris horse has reached 241 million euros, in the last quarter 2010 and still much more than this summer. In poker, they are also stable at 1.9 billion euros, while the activity of tournaments grew another 4%, entry fees from 261 to 271 million in three months. One thing is sure, Jean-François Vilotte concluded: "Quite naturally, some sites will disappear or be absorbed." Already, Canalwin, a subsidiary of Canal + and Ladbrokes gave its approval.TF1 and prepares to throw the towel in Eurosportbet.

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