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Greece seriously concerned about new markets. First because of its new economic forecast alarming: the finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, admitted yesterday that the austerity plan would cause a recession than expected, with a decline in GDP is now estimated at 4.5% " at least "in 2011 against 3.8% prior.

But mainly because the second plan with 158.6 billion euros, concocted by the Heads of State on July 21 and has yet to be ratified by all members of the euro area, has been seriously shaken by Finland.

Helsinki this week announced it has signed a bilateral agreement with Athens where, in exchange for his participation in the bailout, Greece to collateral ("Collateral") to Finland. This sum, which some analysts valued at 1 billion euros would be invested by Finland in risk-free assets.Interest earned will, in the end, to cover the amount loaned in the rescue plan. In other words, the Finnish government has made pledges to ensure against any risk of default of Greece.

Two-tier system

Technical in appearance, this agreement could have an impact politically devastating. Although this is a bilateral agreement, "Member States of the zone will validate this discussion between Finland and Greece," said a spokesman for the Commission, Amadeu Altafaj, ensuring that " Negotiations are already underway. "

But in Brussels, it does not hide his concern. If it is definitely validated the agreement between Finland and Greece could open a Pandora's box by allowing other countries to step into the breach. Austria, Slovakia and Slovenia are already tempted to do the same."We believe this agreement will exacerbate the problems of Greece and did not fall," warned yesterday the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. He said the solution is equivalent in effect to "resume direct" the money lent. However, the Dutch Prime Minister said that if the Finns get this guarantee, it should apply to all countries in the euro area quick cash.

Therein lies the problem. By creating a two-tier system, the agreement undermines the solidarity displayed by the leaders of the euro area on July 21. "The participation of Finland has been canceled," said one EU source, deploring an arrangement going "against the spirit of the agreement" for Seventeen.

Difficult, however, to reverse, the source added.Helsinki is indeed required to deal with the nationalist party of the True Finns since their breakthrough in the last legislative elections and their reluctance to come to the rescue baskets drilled in the euro area.

Markets are not fooled

Under the pressure of Finland, the Heads of State of Seventeen had included a short clause in their agreement of July 21, stating that "where appropriate, a security agreement will be established to cover the risk arising, for Member States of the euro area, the guarantees they have provided to EFSF. " The rhetoric is vague and leaves open to interpretation. Yesterday in Brussels, experts from the ministries of finance in the euro area came together to floor on the issue.

For the Commission, this development is not a surprise, and he emphasizes the urgency of ratifying the agreement of July 21.José Manuel Barroso had written to heads of state of the euro area from August 3 to ask them to speed up the timetable, and thus "avoid introducing excessive stress in terms of conditions or additional collateral." We understand better the rush now.

Athens wanted reassurance yesterday, indicating he had entered into negotiations with a pledge of Helsinki. But financial markets are not fooled: "If all countries in the euro area, each requiring a Trust Agreement, this will restrict all the help that will actually be available for Greece," say economists at Barclays Capital. This would imply de facto establishment of an additional third envelope.

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If prices continue to increase, rising interest rates tend to slow down on its side. The latest results of the Housing Credit Monitoring / CSA published Monday, the average rate charged by banks for getting a home loan rose to 3.90% in July, or 0.04 basis points over that in June.

It's much more at the end of 2010, where it reached a low of 3.27% on average, before rising sharply in the first quarter of 2011. In the early months of the year, interest rates have taken nearly 10 basis points per month, before slowing gradually to rise in the second quarter.

Because the factors that competed so far in the rise in interest rates now seem not to have to play. "The increase began in November 2010 was related to liquidity constraints imposed by the Basel III.To satisfy them, the banks have increased their margins on new loans payday loan lenders. Today, this adjustment – of around 70 points to 100 basis points depending on the establishment – is probably done, "said Michel Mouillart, an economist at Paris X-Nanterre.

Other factors, however, could take over. The cost of money, in particular, could rise because of uncertainties related to the amount of sovereign debt. For the moment, "this factor did not play," said the economist. But it is already expected that the three-month interbank rates and increasing to ten years until 2012, drawing upward those for mortgages. "The movement of rising interest rates should continue," predicts ultimately Eluère Olivier, an economist at Credit Agricole.

Increase the duration of loans

Photo credits: Jean-Christophe Marmara / Le Figaro

In launching his new business tuna in the Indian Ocean in 2007, Yannick Lauri, president of Sapmer rubbed to a less pleasing to fishing in Seychelles waters: the fight against piracy. Used to fight against illegal fishing in the Southern Ocean, its historical business, the second French fishing vessel owner must now deal with direct attacks against ships, conducted off the coast of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania. "A real paramilitary organization," also describes the leader, the tuna-freezer Franche-Terre foiled a pirate attack in 2010.

To avoid being faced with demands for ransom of up to tens of millions of euros, the group has had to adapt.After the first fishing season in September 2009 carried out without any protection, fleet Sapmer has adopted a "for the protection of its crews, under the strong incentive of the state," explains Yannick Lauri. The measures are rather restrictive and expensive …. The obligation to "binômage" (navigation of ships by two, alternating with fishing time) in effect reduces the effective time fishing and limits the free movement of ships. "Especially since we had to navigate a given speed, which has a significant effect on fuel consumption." This obligation has been reduced on June 1, but could be reconsidered in case of renewed attacks.

Insurers ship their bets

But the effect on fishing in itself is a first illustration of the additional costs incurred by piracy.Faced with these increased risks, insurers have been quick to react. "The coverage of these risks represent 10% of our insurance for our tuna fleet, about 75,000 euros for our fleet of three tuna," said Yannick Lauri.

Finally, a report by the Institute of Higher National Defence Studies (IHEDN) which participated Sapmer, released in June, estimates that several hundred thousand euros a year ship the additional security measures.

This cost may seem exorbitant, but due to the requirement for owners to use the personal protection of their ships. Cost is in addition to the measures on navigation, and insurance-costs. For example, Arnoult Gauthier, president of sales VNavy benefits of private military companies (PMCs) from 4000 to 9000 dollars (2800 to 6200 euros) per day per boat.For the heavier the device includes boarding protection teams on boats.

Armed men on board for the protection of marine

For shipowners flying the French flag as Sapmer, these are men from the bodies of state (marine commandos, marines, etc.). Who come to protect the crew. Five armed men complement the 33 sailors present on each of the three tuna of the group. Considering that their vigilance decreases after six weeks, the state imposes, by that time, a return to earth for five days of rest before returning to sea This is not consistent with the ten weeks during a campaign fishing, and induced costs of accommodation and logistics for tracking weapons.

If the teams are state bodies, is financially Sapmer "put to work" for the care of these men.Yannick Lauri, which does not specify the percentage of participation, while acknowledging the nature of effective protection measures by professionals.

To a use of private protection?

As for use of private companies, "this device is not yet approved for vessels under the French flag, although discussions are ongoing, and there is some legal uncertainty on the issue." Currently, MPI experiments with private companies to protect the devices that need to be as effective as the protection of embedded military teams, but technically lighter. But for now, no alternative "has not yet developed," says Yannick Lauri.

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The lack of consensus in Washington on ways to prevent a default by the U.S. Treasury in early August was still crying Friday. "We are clearly running out of time we have left. So I asked members of Congress to give me, within 24 to 36 hours, an indication of the plan that will raise the debt ceiling, "said Barack Obama. The American president has reiterated its willingness to accept adjustments in social programs, that number of elected its own camp, however, refused. But he asks the same time to give the Republicans on tax increases, or at least, on the elimination of tax loopholes, "The Republican voters are willing to (in) to accept," he said, citing recent surveys.

"We're not Greece or Portugal. We do not need to do something drastic, "said Barack Obama.The situation of the United States is indeed very different from the peripheral countries of Europe are grappling with the crisis of sovereign debt. Nevertheless: the absence of a congressional vote before August 2, the U.S. Treasury can no longer borrow as it has already reached the limit of its debt. It would be forced to stop paying some of its creditors.

"Golden Rule" Republican

Shortly before the intervention of Barack Obama, John Boehner, chairman of the House of Representatives, promised the adoption by his fellow Republicans of a "robust plan" to raise the debt ceiling to 2.4 trillion dollars. This text does not include any tax increases, cap on federal spending and also provides for the adoption of a constitutional amendment such as "golden rule" to prevent budget deficits. In other words, it is unlikely to generate a consensus in the Senate.Barack Obama has confirmed that he opposed it.

In the Senate, bipartisan negotiations, subtle and inventive, continue. The leaders of both parties hope to combine a reduction of expenditures in the order of at least 1 000 billion over ten years, raising the ceiling to be de facto delegated by Congress to the President.

The aim is to enable elected not to vote explicitly for raising the ceiling or to the tax increase. Increasing the cap would take place in three stages and maximum total amount would be 2 500 billion, just enough to allow the Treasury to pay all his debts until after the 2012 elections.

According to the proposed scheme, only two-thirds majority in both houses can block increases ceiling decided by Barack Obama. It does not say that this effort to succeed.Or that the elected House of Representatives accept the principle or detail. The installation is complicated as it may be associated with a new method of reduction in social health (Medicare) and retirement (Social Security). A bipartisan commission would draw up by the end of a list of savings to be realized.

This is the seventh increase in less than a year. If the Swedish central bank Tuesday raised its key rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2%, is above all to contain inflation risks, which reached 3% in May, even though the limit is 2 %. "The core inflation (excluding prices of raw materials and other volatiles), upward trend in recent months, rose 1.7%, said Victoire Dumaine-Martin of Natixis. Unlike the Bank of England or the ECB, the Riksbank has a wide scope for growth remains dynamic. "

In fact, with a GDP increase of 5.7% in 2010 from 7.5% last quarter in the year-the highest score statistically memory, after a severe recession of 5.3% in 2009, the country who wants to stay out of the euro area, acts as a "northern tiger" which prances in the forefront of European performance.Unlike the German locomotive, which relies mainly on foreign trade, it is primarily the dynamics of domestic consumption, private and public, which boosted the Swedish economy in 2010.

Benefiting from sound public finances, Sweden did not need to austerity plan, unlike most European countries. Stockholm has achieved a balanced budget in 2010. Public debt fell from 54.3% in 2001 to 39.8% in 2010. "Exports have helped the country out of recession but in the end of 2010 the contribution of foreign trade has been zero, the explicit expert Natixis.This is related to the process of restocking businesses and strong domestic demand that boosted imports. "The tax cuts implemented by the center-right government and the improvement on the employment front from mid-2010 with an unemployment rate of 7.9%, which should continue to fall around 5% by 2014, supported consumption.Raising interest rates is also intended to counter the housing boom: prices have risen steadily to regain their pre-crisis level and the rate of household debt has jumped 103% of income Gross available in 2000 to 170% today.

Appetite for emerging

If since the beginning of the year, growth slowed 0.8% in the first three months of the previous quarter, and should continue in the coming months, mainly because of a decline in other European The forecast for this year is very envious, well above 4%. A situation aided by the appetite of emerging economies for "Made in Sweden" and productive investment to restore productivity.

Prudence and tensions are on the agenda of this meeting Thursday at the Paris Bourse. As in Asia this morning, investors should remain focused on the weakness of the recovery in the U.S. while the CAC 40 plunges inexorably. The Beige Book from the U.S. central bank (Fed), published during the session on Wall Street has reinforced the comments made by chilling the day before Ben Bernanke: "Economic activity continued to grow in general, but a small number of regions have expressed some slowing. " This verdict has resulted in lead Wall Street to its sixth straight decline. The highest since February 2009.

The situation is especially worrying that the U.S. government can not reach agreement on a possible increase in the debt ceiling from the federal government, which must yet be approved before August 2.After S & P and Moody's, Fitch has in turn launched an alert on U.S. debt, menançant the triple A of the country.

Responsible macroeconomic news

In this context, the publication of a new set of indicators in the United States will be closely watched. The program first, the weekly jobless claims. Then follow the figures in the trade balance and inventories of wholesalers. European news will be as important to the ECB decision on interest rates.

In France, payroll employment has increased its recovery in the first quarter and the balance of agency has eased, according to Insee. The sectors mainly merchants have created a total of 58,200 jobs after 48,300 over the last three months of 2010, an increase of 0.4% against 0.3% on the previous quarter.

The euro and oil up

On the currency side, the difficulties U.S. leads the euro to rise against the greenback. The single currency is trading against 1.4628 dollars in morning trading.

Side oil prices are trending upward, failing agreement within OPEC to increase production of crude, analysts said. In morning trading, a barrel of light sweet crude for July delivery took 49 cents and $ 101.23 that of Brent North Sea crude for delivery gained 27 cents identical to 118.12 dollars.

Values ​​to follow

Club Med

The group announced on Thursday a profit of 10 million euros in the first half, against 3 million in the first half of 2010.The indicator of profitability of the villages of the French group jumped 67% to 47 million euros.

Remy Cointreau

The group reported a net profit 2011en 2010-down more than 18%, to 107.5 million euros, 109 million lower than expected by the market.

Air France-KLM

The airline announced Wednesday an increase in passenger traffic in May, albeit at a slower pace than in April, which had benefited from favorable comparison bases.

EDF

EDF could be tested by the weather this summer. RTE, the French electricity network operator, today the government's scenario for the summer. Dry weather and heat wave could cause the system to its limits.

Aeroports de Paris

ADP announced Wednesday it had entered into exclusive negotiations with the operator of airport services 3S Group to cede a majority stake in its ground handling activities.

Sopra

The shareholders gave the green light Wednesday to the proposed demerger and listing of Axway Software, the software division of group counseling and services.

Saint Gobain, Bolloré and Ruby hold their general meeting today.

U.S. stock markets close an increased very slightly on Thursday. The Dow Jones is 0.07% to 12,402.76 points, the S & P 500 gained 0.40% to 1325.69 points and the Nasdaq rose 0.78% to 2782.92 points.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro rebounded against the dollar on Thursday, helped by speculation about a coming increase in Chinese investment in the European sovereign debt.By late evening in Paris, the European single currency was worth 1.4135 dollars against 1.4083 dollars late Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. GDP grew 1.8% in the first quarter, according to the second official estimate of the growth of winter, which confirms the original figure while analysts thought it would be revised upwards (consensus expected 2% growth).

New jobless claims in the United States are divided on the rise during the third week of May, 424,000 according to figures released Thursday by the Department of Labor (cons 414,000 the previous week), while analysts expected a decline, to 400,000.

Microsoft: 1.98% to 24.67 dollars

The investment fund Greenlight Capital, a shareholder of Microsoft, wants to remove the CEO of computer giant, saying that Steve Ballmer is a man of the past.

Computer Science: -13.02% to 38.35 dollars

For his part Computer Sciences announced yesterday evening after the close of Wall Street have registered for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010/2011 earnings per share of $ 1.09 against $ 1.16 and $ 1.66 expected year past. Turnover was 4.2 billion, stable over one year.Over the full year, EPS fell 10.4% while turnover remained stable at 16 billion dollars.

Liberty Global: 1.51% to 44.92 dollars

Also after the close of U.S. markets, Liberty Global has received an indicative offer from Foxtel to buy back its subsidiary Austar United Communications owned 54.2% at a price of 1.52 Australian dollars per share, valuing the share of Liberty Global to nearly one billion Australian dollars.

NetApp: 6.92% to 55.31 dollars

NetApp reported for the fourth quarter earnings per share of $ 0.59 against $ 0.53 expected and $ 0.5 last year, while turnover reached 1.4 billion dollars against 1.2 billion last year.For the quarter, NetApp expects earnings per share of 0.52 to $ 0.57 and revenues of about $ 1.5 billion.

Google: -0.30% to 518.13 dollars

Also of note, Google has unveiled a contactless payment solution developed by MasterCard and Citigroup. The owners of Android phones will eventually make their phones instead of their credit card at the checkout.

A dozen people are working around the front of the Puerta del Sol. Armed with sponges, gloves and scrapers, they attack the graffiti inscribed on an iron curtain Internet Payday loans. The last letters of the word "Revolución" disappear as a result of …

U.S. stock markets, should decline to open Monday. Futures on Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 recede by 2% to 1314.90 points and 2320.25 points to 2.06%. On Friday, the NYSE has closed down, yielding to concerns about debt Greek and dragged down by disappointing results considered in the distribution sector. The Dow Jones lost 0.74% to 12,512.04 points and the Nasdaq 0.71% 2803.32 points. For its part, the broader index Standard & Poor's 500 fell 0.77% to 1333.27 points.

Wall Street has been particularly impacted by the poor performance of the distribution sector, while groups of clothing Gap and Aeropostale have published results below expectations and disappointing forecasts.

At the same time the sovereign debt crisis in Europe should still produce their effects.On Friday, ratings agency Fitch Ratings lowered by three notches to note the long-term debt of Greece and warned it might lower it again in the coming months. At these fears have been added turning on negative outlook of the Italian debt by Standard & Poor's and the defeat of the Spanish government in local elections Sunday, while the country's fourth largest economy in the euro zone, has a social rebellion Unpublished.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro fell sharply against the dollar on Monday, falling below the $ 1.40 for the first time in over two months. About 11:00 am in Paris, the European single currency was worth 1.3982 dollars against 1.4155 dollars on Friday night. The oil prices were also down sharply penalized by the rising dollar.Around 24:00 in Paris, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for July delivery traded at 109.34 dollars on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) in London, dropping $ 3.05 from Friday's close. In electronic trade the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of light sweet crude (WTI) for the same period fell by 2.78 dollars to 97.32 dollars.

On the macroeconomic front there is no major indicator on the agenda of U.S. investors on Monday. The rest of the week will include more animated with new home sales tomorrow, as well as expenses and income of households, Michigan index, and promises of sales Friday.

Corporate results will also rare that week. Investors should remember, however, the publication of Applied Materials, Tuesday, and especially the speech that accompanies it.The group was downgraded by Goldman Sachs Friday because of a reduction in forecast request to the semiconductor industry. The same day, Compuware will also give his views on the changing demands of business and therefore on the strength of their investment in information technology. Specialist Wholesale, Costco is also expected and HJ Heinz. Finally, luxury will be honored, with Polo Ralph Lauren (Wednesday) and Tiffany & Co (Thursday).

The side of values, the U.S. group Fortune Brands continues to focus on liquor by selling its activities in the Gulf for $ 1.2 billion in cash, according to an advisory opinion Monday on the website of the U.S. stock market authorities. Fortune Brands had said last month that these activities, grouped in the Acushnet Company, had intended to leave the group.The acquirer is a special purpose company formed by the sporting goods company Fila Korea and Mirae Asset Investment Funds Private Equity. Fortune Brands plans to complete its focus on alcohol during the second half. It still needs to make it to split its business into the locks and fittings, Fortune Brands Home & Security, whose shares will be distributed to current shareholders of the conglomerate. Following these transactions, the group will be renamed Beam, in reference to its flagship brand, Jim Beam bourbon, whose roots date back to 1795. The future group Beam have in its portfolio of brands such as Maker's Mark (bourbon), Sauza (tequila), Courvoisier (cognac), Canadian Club (Canadian whiskey) and Teachers (Scotch whiskey).

For his part, Foxconn Technology Group has suspended production at its Chinese plant in Chengdu, which produces iPad2 including Apple, following an explosion.Also according to Reuters, Apple will launch a streaming service and storage online music, having concluded agreements with Warner Music Group (WMG), EMI Group and Sony Music Entertainment.

Marvell Technology has announced an investment of $ 200 million to Israel for accelerated research and development of key technologies in the field of mobile communications.

Pfizer received U.S. regulatory approval of the drug (FDA) on Sutent (sunitinib malate) for treatment of certain rare types of pancreatic cancer.

Sears Holdings has announced the resignation of its chief financial officer Michael Collins. William Phelan, vice president and in charge of management control, will temporarily replace it.

The professional social network LinkedIn, should still be under the spotlight after his triumphal entry into the stock market last Thursday.

The games are not made. While the International Monetary Fund is seeking a new general manager following the resignation of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, emerging countries are mobilizing for a leader from their ranks.

While for now, no Chinese is not on the list of potential candidates for the resumption of the post, the Middle Kingdom believes the new boss of the institution should be Chinese. "The time has come to put an end to Western domination on the IMF," said Shan Renping commentator, in an article published by the Chinese newspaper Global Times. He adds that "one of the main responsibilities of the IMF is to oversee the trade and provide funds to countries in need, capabilities that can provide a growing China."He cited the name of Zhu Min, the former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, then became Special Advisor to the Director of the IMF, as a potential buyer of the post.

For its part, the Mexican Minister of Budget, Ernesto Cordero, supported the candidacy of Governor of the Bank of Mexico, Agustin Carstens. "This is the best candidate for the IMF," said the minister at the Mexican press.

Statements which echoes the words of the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Wednesday that the succession of DSK to head the IMF should not be "decided in a hurry" or reserved for a European.

For Lipsky, Christine Lagarde is one of the candidates "well qualified"

Since the establishment of the institution the item is traditionally given to a European Bank since management is entrusted to an American.Thus, if an emerging leader is elected this would be a first for the institution.

While the position raises all desires to the four corners of the globe, American John Lipsky, who has served as Acting, said yesterday that the Board of Trustees will meet Friday to discuss it. He believes that Christine Lagarde is one of the candidates "well qualified" to lead the institution. A view widely shared in France and Europe, where statements of support have multiplied yesterday.

However, John Lipsky has left the door open to candidates from emerging countries, stating that "there is a consensus among our members that the process of appointing the CEO should be open, transparent and must be on the basis of merit. Open means open.Open does not open only to some. "The campaign has only just begun.

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