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Lefigaro.fr – The gap between interest rates of French and German bonds this week hit levels not seen for 20 years (200 bp). French government bonds are they a safe investment?

Philippe Mimran – all depends what you mean by "safe." If this is the sense of repayable loan, the answer is yes. France is able to repay its debts. However, if the sense of an investment that does not generate short-term losses, the answer is no. In other words, the French government bonds are no longer as safe as German bonds. Financial markets expect interest rates continue to rise. This difference of 190 basis points is the same as that between Italian bonds and German bonds in July.The French bonds are more risky than a month ago, European banks sell massively.

Why?

The rules for accounting for government bonds in banks' balance sheets have changed. Until then, when a bank subscribed to an obligation of 100 million euros to 2.5%, it maintained that amount on its balance sheet and collected an annual coupon of 2.5%. And, regardless of the carrying amount of the obligation. Now, if the title is only worth 90 million euros, it instantly suffer a loss of 10%. The balance sheet of banks is affected. For secure, regulators require them to strengthen their capital.

Private companies have indeed created 110,000 net new jobs over the month (Articles Analysts had expected 100,000). ADP also revised up sharply the number of hires in September to 116,000.

The traditional weekly oil stocks should also be unveiled this afternoon.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro regained some strength, however, rising by 0 fast cash loans.83% in late morning at 1.3775 dollars. Shaken by the announcement of a referendum in Greece on the bailout, the euro fell to 1.3609 dollars Tuesday, its lowest level since Oct. 12.

New salvo of results

As for values, the banking sector that has suffered the consequences of yesterday's bounce in the euro zone, expected to focus attention.

The draft budget for Social Security in 2012 began his career tonight in the Chamber of the Assembly. The text provides € 17.6 billion deficit of the general system (Old Age Solidarity Fund included), after 22 billion this year and 28 billion in 2010.

The examination of the text in the Committee gave an idea of ​​the issues that should be hotly debated in the majority, and amendments likely. The major themes: the subjugation of parental leave benefits (CLCA) to the CSG, the reduction in benefits for loss of work and the fight against fraud.

On this point, several amendments of the UMP Dominique Tian were approved by the Committee on Social Affairs. "I support and I ask the group to vote, says the boss of UMP deputies, Christian Jacob.They stem from the report of the assessment mission and control of social security (MECSS), adopted unanimously, "left and right confused.

The first is to redefine the concept of "single person", which comes into play in the payment of benefits as the single parent allowance (API, now part of RSA). "That is to reverse the burden of proof. Anyone applying for the allocation should show that it is only to take on household expenses: rent, electricity, etc.. "

Another measure supported by Christian Jacob, the suspension of all benefits in the event of obtaining a number Safely from forged identity documents."Credit unions did not have that opportunity, which of course added to criminal sanctions," said the president of the UMP group.

Recalculation of benefits sick

Former Minister for Family, Christian Jacob is also aligned with the Committee on Social Affairs to refuse to submit to the 6 payday loans.2% CSG few hundred euros a month if paid parental leave. The measure, sought by the government, must report 140 million per year.

Another controversial issue up within the majority: the new method of calculating sick leave benefits, which reduces the amount of about 6% to a gain of 220 million.The issue will be discussed at today's meeting of the UMP group.

Additional tools to fight against fraud they relate enough to give these provisions without widening the deficit? Yves Bur questioned, at least in the short term, these tools put the time to bear fruit.

"The fraud MECSS evaluates the single parent allowance in the range from 160 to 300 million euros a year, and those arising from forgery to 1.3 billion, said Christian Jacob. By definition, quantify the extent of fraud is difficult and estimates are wide.But it is important symbolically, when efforts are required from all the French, to hit hard on fraud. "

Yves Bur adds other proposals to generate more savings: lower third of the threshold for taxation of benefits breach of contract work (out of court for dismissal …) to 72,700 euros, or launch tenders for the supply of generic drugs and drive down the price as well. He hopes to gain large enough to give up the measure on sick leave … while fearing that the government, looking for additional savings, retains all final.

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PepsiCo has the sequence of ideas. In 2005, the U.S. giant had failed to put its plans to buy Danone. But it remains today in its desire to add yogurt to its offer. PepsiCo is indeed about to enter the market in the United States, where he will face two well-known leaders in France: Dannon, Danone's subsidiary that produces and distributes America 6 million pots of yogurt a day, and General Mills, number two, which has confirmed its ambitions by acquiring 51% of Yoplait.

In search of food markets growing, the boss of PepsiCo, Indra Nooyi, displays for months his ambition to enter the dairy sector. The group is indeed under pressure from shareholders to boost its growth, to compensate for the decline of its traditional soft drinks in the United States.The yoghurt market in contrast has almost doubled over the past decade in America.

The Wall Street Journal, the multinational company is in talks to create a joint venture in the United States with German dairy group Theo Müller. The latter, already present in the UK since 1995 with its brand Müller Corner, also happens to be looking for expansion outside Europe. The brand and type of yogurt that the alliance wants to produce is not yet known. No more than the amount that the two partners plan to invest easy payday loans.

Positive

With dairy products, Pepsi expand its portfolio of 19 product lines that each generates over a billion dollars in revenue, and would complement its offering food to the radius, at present limited to Frito Lay chips and other crackers Doritos and Cheetos.Above all, the yogurt group would bring to the positive image of the nutritional point of view. Soft drinks like Pepsi, Gatorade, Mountain Dew and Seven Up, are criticized for their high sugar content and are regularly projects surcharges, while snacks are for their salt content.

PepsiCo has already begun to diversify into less controversial products: fruit juices, with the acquisition of Tropicana in 1998, or breakfast cereals with the acquisition of Quaker in 2001. One of the strategic group is also to develop snacks and other snacks made from healthy products. The firm has for example launched last year Tropolis, mashed fruit presented in liquid water bottles for children.By creating a center last year called "Global Nutrition Group," PepsiCo has set a goal to triple its turnover in 2020 in this niche products based on fruit, vegetables, grains and of milk. Dr. Mehmood Khan, an endocrinologist came from the famous Mayo Clinic, was engaged in conduct that set.

With the individual

The Finance Act 2012 goes a new movement of the plane 10% of the 14 tax loopholes already affected in 2011 (rental investment schemes, investment in unlisted companies including …). Although the tax credit for taxpayers conducting energy conservation work in their primary residence is no exception to the planing, the government decided to initiate a reform of assistive devices to the improving the energy performance of dwellings. He wants to promote major renovations including the return on investment is sometimes more than thirty years.This work financially unattractive, however, are needed to achieve the 38% reduction in consumption of existing buildings in the park, set by the Grenelle Environment Forum.

What work is encouraged?

To reach its target of 400,000 retrofits thermal year, the government intends to achieve more attractive bunches of work. Thus, taxpayers carrying the same year, at least two categories of work will receive a tax credit rates increased by 10 points, but the rate so obtained may not exceed 45%. This may include, for example, the joint realization of the wall insulation and the roof, along with installing a new boiler performance or installing a heat pump.The device, which was completed December 31, 2012, is extended for three years.

Bercy does he discourage some work?

Indeed, work is now less efficient on the spot. Thus, the installation of double glazed windows, entry door or shutters in a house no longer open right to the tax benefit if it is not accompanied by other work faxless payday advance. And when applied, the rate of the tax credit will be lowered to 11% in 2012. Similarly, the tax credit for installing solar panels for electricity production is seriously dented. The rate will increase from 22% to 13% and the tax benefit will be subject to a specific ceiling, set by decree.Costs savings are now included in an overall ceiling of € 8000 multi for a single person and 16,000 euros for a married or civil union, this amount being increased by € 400 per dependent.

Funding arrangements will they be improved?

In 2011, only 50,000 Eco-PTZ (interest-free loans granted for thermal renovation of housing) have been granted. A figure well below the objectives of the Grenelle Environment Forum. Therefore the government intends to make it more effective. Its maximum reimbursement would increase from 10 to 15 years when financing the simultaneous production of at least three kinds of work. This would apply to offers of loans issued from 1 April 2012.Similarly, to allow low-income households to achieve these major renovations, homes with an income tax benchmark tax is less than 30,000 euros per year will earn the Eco-PTZ and the tax credit. And, for offers of loans issued from January 1, 2012.

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Prime Minister George Papandreou on Thursday once again called on Greeks to "make one more effort." Parliament where he met members of the Ionian Islands region and Crete, he acknowledged that "in an international environment very hard and unfavorable" it was inevitable to give a new turn of the screw "to ensure the important decisions of 21 July which give Greece a new rescue package and alleviate the debt. "

But two days after the announcement of new austerity measures, the Greeks hardly accuse the coup.To get the sixth installment of the loan of 110 billion euros, or 8 billion euros, the government's attack this time directly to households: 20% discount on pensions in excess of 1200 euros months, 30,000 employees laid off and placed in lowering the threshold of non-taxation to 5000 euros per year.

For Thanassis, college teacher, the situation has become untenable. "For eighteen months, we wake up every morning with a knot in my stomach until the next sunset," says he. So far, Thanassis did not participate in strikes, but this time he is running out: "My wife earns only 400 euros per month and will now be imposed.As for me, in addition to the reduction in my income, it imposes upon me a new solidarity tax … I can not pay, they send me to jail, it will always be better than being homeless ".

Strikes cascade

Thursday, the streets of Athens were paralyzed by the strike of public transport and taxis, while teachers and municipal employees will do so instant payday loan. As a result, the Greeks had taken their cars, contributing to the formation of traffic jams. In turn, air traffic controllers stopped work four hours, forcing airlines to cancel or delay flights. And this is only the prelude to an end of September and October ahead particularly hot socially.

Even today, the whole country will again be largely private transport.From next Tuesday, taxi drivers planned a second strike of forty-eight hours, renewable. Before the nationwide general strike scheduled for 19 October, Greece is going to live on a chaotic rhythm.

For Pavlos Tzimas, a political analyst, the malaise is deeper. It may even, says he, to turn against the government: "This can not continue. Every three months, it was announced to the Greeks a new package of austerity measures. The government has overestimated its austerity program and has underestimated the weight of the recession. "

The business concern as well. "There is no compass, this government does not know where it goes," Constantinos Michalos rebels who heads the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Athens.

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There is electricity in the air when it comes to the estate of Pierre-Henri Gourgeon at the head of Air France. The future boss of the Air France-KLM in 2014, must initially be appointed head of the only Air France. The Board of Directors of the Company held Wednesday will not be an opportunity to put an end to the war of suitors. The four directors who comprise the Nominating Committee decided to take their time. It is only in the coming weeks as the quartet will present its recommendation, hoping to bring some calm and find a consensus on the board.

The "wise men" are aware that the candidate will also appeal to the state, which supports the candidacy of Alexander Juniac, adviser to the Minister of Economy, Baroin instant personal loans guaranteed.Pierre-Henri Gourgeon is on the same line, but not Jean-Cyril Spinetta, Group Chairman, a supporter of the appointment of a "pro" for a business sector heckled by the TGV, the low-cost, companies of Gulf and Asian competition.

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Risk of default of Greece, uncertainty about the Italian economy, banks in the crosshairs of the rating agencies … in times of financial uncertainty, real estate is more than ever its role as a refuge. A study by the Ipsos institute for the network of estate agents Orpi, released this morning confirmed. 39% of respondents, real estate is "the safest investment in France today."

The stone ahead and booklets and savings accounts offered by banks (29%), and life insurance (19%). Actions (2%) and bonds (2%) are even further relegated last. The survey results show that confidence in real estate is even stronger than household incomes are high.Thus, over half (52%) of those reporting more than 3000 euros monthly income claims to have faith in the stone.

If Bernard Cadeau, president of the Orpi network, welcomes the conclusions of the study, he also expressed fears for the future. Recent government decisions – taxation of capital gains, reducing the advantage Scellier have …- he said, clearly upset the French. "It also translates instantly into the field with 5% of our customers who have taken the mandate to sell their second home in the weeks that followed," said he. A view shared by Gilles Ricour Bourges, his counterpart at the Paris-Fnaim. Since August 25, the real estate professionals succeed in denouncing the announcements made by the government and their negative effects on the market and on household budgets as prices could rise again because of the shortage.Analysis they will not fail to spread on the occasion of the exhibition of real estate in Paris, which opened on next weekend.

The New York Stock Exchange, which has accelerated its rise in early trading after the publication of a good ISM, quickly found the red and has continued to widen its losses. In the end, the Dow fell 1.03% to 11,493.57 points, the S & P by 1.19% to 1204.42 points and the Nasdaq 1.3% to 2546.04 points. Trading volumes were low in anticipation of U.S. employment figures on Friday. Wednesday, the increase was set for the fourth session later time.The U.S. investors were reassured by the tone of the minutes of the last monetary policy committee of the Fed.

While the manufacturing sector remained in growth in the United States in August, while analysts expected a contraction. This index, calculated by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), falls to 50.6 against 50.9 in July and 48.5 expected.But investors have extra caution while construction spending heavily relapsed in July in the U.S., continuing to suffer from the weak housing market, according to figures released Thursday by the Commerce Department.

In addition, the decline in nonfarm productivity in the United States was larger than initially announced in the second quarter, against a backdrop of weak economic growth, according to revised figures released today by the Department of Labor. And the number of jobless declined in the United States during the week to August 27, at 409,000 against 421,000 the previous week. Economists were anticipating 410,000 registrations.

The blow came from the White House. If it has revised down its forecast budget deficit of the U.S. federal government for 2011 and 2012, it has also revised down its growth forecasts.The Budget Office of the White House (OMB) said in its biannual journal that the deficit should reach 8.8% of GDP for 2011 and 6.1% for 2012. It revised down its economic growth forecast to 2.1% this year and 3.3% for 2012, pushing the unemployment rate to 8.2% in the fourth quarter, up 0.9 point less than in July 2011.

European debt worries yet

In Europe, the issue of debt remains a concern for investors. According to calculations by economists of the IMF if the European banks were asked to write on their balance sheet obligations of States in the euro area market value, their tangible equity would fall to about 200 billion euros in total, from 10 to 12%, reports the Financial Times. In fact, the debt crisis is far from over and the discrepancies between European leaders are continuing.Latest, the EU president, Herman Van Rompuy, downplayed the significance of the "golden rule" budget that Paris and Berlin want to impose the euro area, even as France in extolling the virtues.

Values ​​to follow

The side of values, French Fimalac announced the sale of its Canadian subsidiary Algorithmics, specializing in software for the financial industry, IBM (-0.92% to 170.32 dollars).

Automakers said Thursday strong growth in sales of cars in the year to August in the U.S., 31% for Chrysler, Nissan 19%, 18% for General Motors (-4.16% to 23.03 dollars) and 11% for Ford (-2.52% to 10.84 dollars), despite difficult economic conditions.

The title Ciena surged 20.18%. The manufacturer of equipment for telecommunications shows a profit for the first time in three years, while analysts expected a further loss.

Goldman Sachs has been unscrewed from 3.49%. The U.S. Federal Reserve demanded that the U.S. bank to make the services of an outside consultant to review the mortgages issued by one of its subsidiaries, to identify and compensate borrowers who have been victims of improper seizures .

In addition, a judge overturned the conviction of SAP (-1.04% to 53.85 dollars) to pay to $ 1.3 miliard Oracle (-0.80% to 27.85 dollars).

The distribution group online eBay (-1.43% to 30.43 dollars) is looking for acquisitions in Japan and China, the two largest economies in the Asia, where the group wants to develop, said an official of the eBay Wall Street Journal Thursday.

Also note, after closing the CEO of the U.S. investment bank Bank Of New York Mellon (-0.15% to 20.64 dollars), Robert Kelly, has resigned because of "differences in management approach Company "with the rest of management, said Wednesday the establishment.He was replaced by Gerald Hassell, a member of the board, the bank said in a statement.

For its part, the number two mobile phone in the U.S., AT & T (-0.74% to 28.27 dollars), suffered a blow Wednesday with the opposition of the competition agencies, the proposed takeover its rival T-Mobile for $ 39 billion.

Cameron International (-0.83% to 51.53 dollars) has announced the acquisition activities of LeTourneau drilling products held by Joy Global for about $ 375 million in cash. The same Joy Global said it had experienced for its third quarter ended July 29, orders rose by 49% to $ 1.4 billion and sales up 34% to $ 1.1 billion.Operating profit reached $ 236 million against 172 million last year.

Costco Wholesale (1.20% to 79.48 dollars) issued net sales up 17% year on year to 6.9 billion in August and 27.6 billion dollars in the fourth quarter. In addition, CEO Jim Sinegal announced his departure on 1 January 2012 and its replacement by the Director of Operations Craig Jelinek.

Stryker (-1.23% to 48.24 dollars) will acquire Concentric Medical, specializing in the manufacture of products for the treatment of ischemic stroke, for $ 135 million.

• Why is it the capital the sinews of war?

Basis of bank balance sheets, equity protect in case of hardship, by absorbing the losses. For decades, regulators consider that the level of capital a bank against its commitments is the best indicator of its strength. The 2008 financial crisis has only reinforced this analysis for the simple reason that supervisors realized they had been unable to prevent it. Thus, their goal now is to reduce the impact of future crises, by ensuring that banks have sufficient buffers.In particular, the new international regulations, Basel 3, requires that by 2019 no later than the banks' capital should represent at least 7% of their commitments "hard equity" against a floor equivalent to 2% before the crisis .

• 400 billion already raised

In other words, the race started in the capital for a long time in Europe. First in 2008 and 2009 to offset losses from the crisis. And since 2010 to meet the requirements of Basel 3. The European Commission amounted to 340 billion euros state aid in the form of recapitalization of banks that it has validated between 2008 and 2010. Between January and April 2011, banks have continued to increase their capital by 50 billion euros. In total, nearly 400 billion euros were injected into the European banking system in three years. And it's not over.Portugal, Greece or Spain, the governments push to consolidate their banking sectors. European authorities concluded, following stress tests conducted in May, as eight banks of these countries had an immediate need for 2.5 billion euros. But the amount should be much higher because 16 banks, including Germany, remain in a tie no fax payday advance. For European banks, finally, the question is whether the economic downturn will thwart the rise of their ratios by reducing their profits. In which case they will either raise capital or reduce their commitments.

• Who are the deep pockets?

If Christine Lagarde calls on European banks to seek priority to private investors, the plummeting share price of Barclays and other general company since the beginning of the year complicates the equation.The UniCredit, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have had the chance to increase their capital just before the stock market crash of the summer. French banks, they have got just in time a boost through the stock dividend. In this context, it is no coincidence that the last few days of sovereign wealth funds and other major investors are back. Last week, Warren Buffett – who won $ 1.7 billion by betting $ 5 billion over Goldman Sachs in 2008 – has placed a ticket 5 billion in Bank of America. In addition, the merger of the second and third Greek banks is supported by a fund of Qatar. In 2007 and 2008, already, Singapore, Kuwait or China were brought to the rescue of troubled banks in the world.All did not keep good memories, like the fund of Abu Dhabi, Adia had placed $ 7 billion in Citigroup.

However, if by chance the private shareholders do not jostled, European states began to organize to ensure public support for the banking sector. This is the case in Spain, for example. In addition, the Summit of July 21, European governments have decided to allow the European stability fund to recapitalize banks directly if necessary.

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